Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan headline a Halloween card at the Apex, and the books split them by a hair: -120 on the veteran, +105 on the 26-year-old. For UFC DFS players on DraftKings and FanDuel, the 12-fight slate has seven favorites at -265 or shorter. Four fights are priced at +300 or longer to see the judges. The co-main got a short-notice swap, with Jacobe Smith stepping in for Carlos Leal against Randy Brown just 28 days after his last knockout.
The Card
| Bout | Weight | Rounds | Moneyline | Goes the distance | DK salary | FD salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan | Lightweight | 5 | -120 / +105 | +275 | $8,000 / $8,200 | $15 / $16 |
| Jacobe Smith vs Randy Brown | Welterweight | 3 | -265 / +225 | +310 | $8,800 / $7,400 | $18 / $11 |
| Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden | Flyweight | 3 | -102 / -115 | +150 | $8,300 / $7,900 | $15 / $14 |
| Luana Santos vs Yana Santos | Women's Bantamweight | 3 | -290 / +260 | -300 | $8,900 / $7,300 | $19 / $10 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov | Welterweight | 3 | -278 / +235 | +172 | $9,000 / $7,200 | $18 / $13 |
| Francis Marshall vs Dakota Hope | Featherweight | 3 | -205 / +180 | -135 | $8,700 / $7,500 | $19 / $10 |
| Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren | Welterweight | 3 | -176 / +154 | +235 | $8,500 / $7,700 | $16 / $12 |
| JeongYeong Lee vs Julian Erosa | Featherweight | 3 | -155 / +142 | +330 | $8,600 / $7,600 | $17 / $12 |
| Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall | Middleweight | 3 | -350 / +330 | +420 | $9,100 / $7,100 | $20 / $9 |
| Joe Kropschot vs Nick Klein | Middleweight | 3 | -310 / +250 | +300 | $9,300 / $6,900 | $22 / $8 |
| Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar | Women's Strawweight | 3 | -278 / +245 | -250 | $9,200 / $7,000 | $21 / $10 |
| Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa | Women's Flyweight | 3 | -650 / +470 | +150 | $9,600 / $6,600 | $23 / $8 |
Reese and Gall at +420 to reach the cards is the number I can't stop looking at, and the two women's fights at -300 and -250 are the clearest decision spots. Every outcome lives on the UFC fight simulator.
Last Week's Calls
| Call from the 10/24 playbook | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Yakhyaev by KO, cash core and FanDuel MVP | Won by KO in round one | Hit |
| Chopurov, cash core | Lost a decision to Colby Thicknesse | Miss |
| Merab Dvalishvili, cash core | Lost a five-round decision to Petr Yan | Miss |
| Yan by decision | Won a five-round decision | Hit |
| Murzakanov by KO | Dominick Reyes won by KO in round one | Miss |
| Evloev by decision | Volkanovski won by KO in round two | Miss |
| Model Bets: Yakhyaev and Murzakanov by decision | Both lost | 0-2 |
Two of four leans hit and one of three cash core plays came through, so it was a rough week for the chalk. The tournament sides were better: Reyes and Volkanovski were my GPP darts in those two fights, and both won by knockout.
Fights to Target
Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa: Women's Flyweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Szabova -650, Lisboa +470. Method: Szabova by KO +340, by SUB +170, by decision +200; Lisboa by KO +1200, by SUB +2500, by decision +1000. Distance: +150.
The angle: The cash fight, with the biggest favorite on the card making her UFC debut.
- Our Elo calls this close to a coin flip, but only because Szabova has no UFC fights for it to rate. The books don't care: -650 is the shortest price on the slate, and she's got a real submission path at +170 plus a +340 KO line behind it. The simulator gives her a stoppage win 55% of the time. At $9,600 she's the priciest fighter on DraftKings and she'll be the chalk. I'll eat that chalk. Cash core.
- Lisboa comes in after a year away at age 35, and she dropped her last two, by knockout in October 2025 and by submission in May 2025. She's also cutting down to flyweight for this one. A +2500 submission price says she isn't the one who gets an early tap. I'd pass, even at $6,600.
Lean: Szabova by submission, cash on both sites
Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall: Middleweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Reese -350, Gall +330. Method: Reese by KO -120, by SUB +500, by decision +750; Gall by KO +2200, by SUB +600, by decision +1000. Distance: +420.
The angle: The cleanest early finish on the slate, and the FanDuel MVP fight.
- Reese got knocked out in the first round in July, and the books still hang -120 on him to win by KO. That's a strong opinion on the guy across from him. Reese's UFC fights average about six minutes, and the simulator has this one over in round one half the time. He's not bulletproof, and three of his four UFC defeats were knockouts. I love the price on the finish. Cash, and my first FanDuel MVP.
- Gall hasn't fought since November 2024, when he got stopped in the first round, and he's lost four of his last five. He's also changing weight classes after almost two years off. His one live path is the scramble. He's 6-7 in the UFC and five of those wins were submissions, and +600 on that is the only number here I'd even look at. GPP dart at most.
Lean: Reese by KO in round one, cash and FanDuel MVP
Jacobe Smith vs Randy Brown: Welterweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Smith -265, Brown +225. Method: Smith by KO +145, by SUB +330, by decision +550; Brown by KO +410, by SUB +2200, by decision +850. Distance: +310.
The angle: A short-notice favorite with a perfect finish record, and a fight that can still swing.
- DraftKings has six fighters priced above Smith at $8,800, and I'm not sure any of them finishes people like he does. He's 5-0 in the UFC with four knockouts and a submission, his fights average 4.5 minutes, and he lands 6.91 significant strikes per minute while taking people down 7.92 times per 15. He knocked someone out on October 3, so he's turning around in 28 days. Our Elo only has him at 57% while the books say 73%, and that gap is the one thing that keeps me from going all in. Cash core.
- Brown is the cheap side at $7,400 with a live puncher's chance. He's got four KO wins in the UFC, a 78-inch reach against Smith's 72, and +410 by KO. His camp was built for Carlos Leal, and now he gets a fighter who takes people down almost eight times every 15 minutes. He's 36, lost his last two and has been knocked out three times, which is why he'll be low-owned. GPP only.
Lean: Smith by KO, cash; Brown by KO is a tournament swing
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan: Lightweight, 5 rounds
Odds: Moicano -120, Nolan +105. Method: Moicano by KO +750, by SUB +200, by decision +600; Nolan by KO +230, by SUB +900, by decision +650. Distance: +275.
The angle: Five rounds, two clear finish paths and a near coin flip on the moneyline make this my tournament fight.
- Moicano's best weapon is the choke. Six of his 12 UFC wins came by submission, including a second-round tap in April, and +200 for another one is a fair price over 25 minutes. He's 37, though, and he's been stopped five times in the UFC. At $8,000 he'll be a bit more popular than Nolan. GPP, and fine in cash if you want the main event.
- I'd take the younger, bigger man here. Nolan is 6-1 in the UFC with five straight wins, and he stands 75 inches tall against 71. He lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute to Moicano's 4.03, and the knockout is his path at +230. Is that enough to beat a veteran grappler? Over five rounds it might be. At $8,200 he's my favorite tournament play on top of the card.
Lean: Nolan by KO, GPP; Moicano by submission is the other side of the same coin
Rest of the Card
- Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden: A true pick'em at -102 and -115, and each man has one win in his last five. Durden takes people down 3.82 times per 15 minutes, while Osbourne's path is the +200 KO. I'd pass in cash.
- Luana Santos vs Yana Santos: Luana is -290, the fight is -300 to go the distance, and she's -110 to win on the cards. Her wrestling pays on DraftKings. Yana has won three straight decisions but comes off 13 months away.
- Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov: Lebosnoyani is 3-0 in the UFC, -278 to win and +175 by submission. Hasanov won his only UFC fight on the cards. Lebosnoyani is a GPP favorite who should draw less attention than his price suggests.
- Francis Marshall vs Dakota Hope: Hope took this on short notice and drops to featherweight, and the books make Marshall -205 with the decision at +145. At -135 to go the distance, this is a DraftKings-only spot for me, and a thin one.
- Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren: Both men got knocked out in their only UFC fight. Sezinando is -176 with +230 on the KO, and he'll be heavy chalk on FanDuel. I'd rather be under the field on him there.
- JeongYeong Lee vs Julian Erosa: Lee is -155 with +125 on the knockout, and Erosa has seven knockout losses in the UFC. He'll be popular on both sites, so he fits better in a core than as a pivot.
- Joe Kropschot vs Nick Klein: Kropschot is -310 with +130 on the submission, and Klein got knocked out in both of his last two fights. At $9,300 he draws a smaller crowd than Reese or Szabova, which makes him my tournament pivot off those two.
- Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar: Rodriguez is -278, and she's -130 to win on the cards. With three straight decision wins and 4.04 takedowns per 15 minutes, she's a DraftKings volume play and a FanDuel pass.
Injuries and News
| Fighter | Change | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | Now faces Jacobe Smith, was booked against Carlos Leal | His camp was built for a different fighter, so he's a GPP dart only |
| Francis Marshall | Now faces Dakota Hope, was booked against Gaston Bolaños | Still a -205 favorite, but the distance price says this goes long |
| Dakota Hope | Fights at featherweight, was listed at lightweight | Short notice and a drop to featherweight, keep exposure light |
| Tainara Lisboa | Fights at women's flyweight, was listed at women's bantamweight | One more reason to pass |
| Fighter | Flag | Scratch risk | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gall | Weight class change, 23 months out | Moderate | Watch weigh-ins, Reese stays the play either way |
| Jacobe Smith | Short-notice replacement, 28 days since his last fight | Low | Still my cash anchor |
| Dakota Hope | Short-notice replacement, weight class change | Low | Light exposure only |
| Randy Brown | New opponent, age 36 | Low | GPP only |
| Francis Marshall | New opponent | Low | Decision fight, DraftKings only |
| Tainara Lisboa | Weight class change, 12 months out | Low | Pass |
| JeongYeong Lee | 18 months out | Low | Rust is the risk, still a GPP play |
| Zach Reese | KO loss under 6 months ago | Low | The books don't care, neither do I |
Updated every hour on the UFC late changes board.
Model Bets
| Bet | Best price | Sim chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Reese by decision | +800 | 12% | +12% |
| Joe Kropschot by decision | +500 | 18% | +7% |
Zach Reese wins by decision (+800) | Edge: +12%
Reese takes a decision in about 12% of the simulations, and +800 implies about 11%. I'm calling a knockout above, so treat this one as a hedge on the same fighter.
Joe Kropschot wins by decision (+500) | Edge: +7%
Kropschot wins on the cards in 18% of the sims, and +500 prices it near 17%. That's a thin edge on a fighter the books expect to finish Klein, so I'd size it light.
These come off the fight simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Compare every price on the UFC odds comparison.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Props to Watch
| Prop | Best price | Sim chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden under 31.5 significant strikes | -115 | 69% | +29% |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani under 34.5 significant strikes | -115 | 69% | +29% |
| Yana Santos under 40.5 significant strikes | -115 | 69% | +28% |
All three are unders, and that's no accident. A lot of these fights end early in our sims, and in the 44 significant strike props we've graded since October 10, the over cashed only 34% of the time. Durden wants to wrestle, so his volume comes from takedowns, not strikes.
These come off the fight simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucia Szabova | Tainara Lisboa | $9,600 | $23 | -650 | KO or SUB | Cash |
| Zach Reese | Mickey Gall | $9,100 | $20 | -350 | KO | Cash |
| Jacobe Smith | Randy Brown | $8,800 | $18 | -265 | KO | Cash |
| Luana Santos | Yana Santos | $8,900 | $19 | -290 | Decision | Cash |
| Rodrigo Sezinando | Theodor Berggren | $8,500 | $16 | -176 | KO | Cash |
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Nolan | Renato Moicano | $8,200 | $16 | +105 | KO | GPP |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Farman Hasanov | $9,000 | $18 | -278 | SUB | GPP |
| Joe Kropschot | Nick Klein | $9,300 | $22 | -310 | SUB | GPP |
| Renato Moicano | Tom Nolan | $8,000 | $15 | -120 | SUB | GPP |
| Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith | $7,400 | $11 | +225 | KO | GPP |
| Fighter | FD | Moneyline | Round 1 finish | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Reese | $20 | -350 | +120 | KO -120, ends it early in half our sims |
| Jacobe Smith | $18 | -265 | +160 | Five UFC wins, five finishes |
Blue marks a cash play, orange marks a GPP play.
Luana Santos is a DraftKings play more than a FanDuel one: her fight is -300 to go the distance, and her wrestling only pays where top time counts. Sezinando swings the other way, since he'll be the most popular fighter on FanDuel at $16 even though our Elo has Berggren as the slightly better fighter.
Every projection lives on this week's UFC DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free UFC lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
Szabova, Reese and Smith make up my cash core. They're the three best bets on the card to end things early, and none of them needs a judge to pay off. Szabova is debuting, so the -650 is all the proof we get. That's fine in cash, but I wouldn't jam her into every tournament build.
For a pivot, I want Nolan. He's +105 with +230 on the knockout over five rounds, and fewer people will play him than Moicano. Kropschot at $9,300 is the other way to get different from the Reese and Szabova crowd. On FanDuel, Reese is my MVP, with Smith right behind him.
Lock is 4 p.m. Central. Before then, check the late changes board for Smith and Hope, the two short-notice fighters, and make sure Gall makes weight after two years away. More cards in the UFC DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this card
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN UFC tools: UFC DFS projections, the free UFC lineup optimizer, the UFC fight simulator, UFC fighter matchups, and UFC odds comparison.