Johnny Walker steps back in 35 days after a first-round knockout, and this time he gets five rounds with Waldo Cortes Acosta at the Apex. The UFC DFS boards don't match this week: DraftKings left Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon off its slate, and FanDuel has no Nina Milošević in its pool, so each site plays a different card. Seven favorites are priced at -300 or shorter, and four fighters face someone other than the opponent they trained for.
The Card
Switch tabs for the full card and how last week's calls did.
| Bout | Weight | Rounds | Moneyline | Goes the distance | DK salary | FD salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Johnny Walker | Heavyweight | 5 | -230 / +198 | +340 | $8,700 / $7,500 | $19 / $15 |
| Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba | Women's Strawweight | 3 | -205 / +170 | -300 | $8,600 / $7,600 | $18 / $14 |
| Elijah Smith vs Davey Grant | Bantamweight | 3 | -310 / +260 | +132 | $9,100 / $7,100 | $18 / $15 |
| Lucas Fernando vs Billy Elekana | Light Heavyweight | 3 | -325 / +260 | +138 | $9,200 / $7,000 | $19 / $13 |
| Nina Milošević vs Priscila Cachoeira | Women's Bantamweight | 3 | -500 / +390 | +340 | $9,500 / $6,700 | Not listed / $8 |
| Marcos Degli vs Mitch Raposo | Flyweight | 3 | -230 / +200 | +104 | $9,000 / $7,200 | $17 / $13 |
| Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid | Featherweight | 3 | -375 / +295 | +235 | $9,400 / $6,800 | $21 / $9 |
| Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço | Heavyweight | 3 | -170 / +145 | +165 | $8,400 / $7,800 | $16 / $15 |
| Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes | Women's Flyweight | 3 | -225 / +185 | -135 | $8,800 / $7,400 | $16 / $10 |
| Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov | Featherweight | 3 | -120 / +100 | +132 | $8,000 / $8,200 | $14 / $16 |
| Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon | Featherweight | 3 | -550 / +425 | +215 | Not listed | $21 / $10 |
| Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski | Middleweight | 3 | -300 / +260 | +400 | $9,300 / $6,900 | $20 / $11 |
| Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman | Welterweight | 3 | -675 / +490 | +110 | $9,700 / $6,500 | $23 / $8 |
| Jose Henrique vs Jonny Parsons | Welterweight | 3 | -230 / +195 | +144 | $8,900 / $7,300 | $17 / $12 |
| Call from the 10/31 playbook | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Szabova by submission, cash | Won by KO in round three | Miss |
| Reese by KO in round one, cash and FanDuel MVP | Won a decision | Miss |
| Smith by KO, cash | Won a decision | Miss |
| Nolan by KO, GPP | Won by KO in round three | Hit |
| Cash core: Szabova, Reese, Smith | All three won | Hit |
| Model Bets: Reese and Kropschot by decision | Reese won a decision, Kropschot won by submission | 1-1 |
Kondratavičius and Petroski at +400 to see the judges is the price that jumps off this board, and Suarez vs Jandiroba at -300 is the only fight the books expect to go long. Last week the cash core went three for three on wins, but I only got one method right out of four, and Reese as my FanDuel MVP needed a finish he never found. Every outcome lives on the UFC fight simulator.
Fights to Target
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski: Middleweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Kondratavičius -300, Petroski +260. Method: Kondratavičius by KO -180, by SUB +1400, by decision +650; Petroski by KO +950, by SUB +600, by decision +900. Distance: +400.
The angle: My cash fight and my FanDuel MVP fight, since no bout on the card ends earlier in our sims.
- Kondratavičius was booked against Wes Schultz, and the books didn't blink at the switch. He's -180 to win by knockout, and the simulator ends this fight in round one 43% of the time. Across his two recorded fights he lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.30. The sample is thin, and he prepared for a different opponent. I'll take that risk at $9,300. Cash core, and my MVP.
- Cheap for a reason. Petroski got knocked out in May and again last September, and four of his five UFC losses came by knockout. He can wrestle, with 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, but a new opponent and a shaky chin make $6,900 a trap. I'd pass.
Lean: Kondratavičius by first-round KO, cash core and MVP on FanDuel
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid: Featherweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Nakamura -375, Schmid +295. Method: Nakamura by KO -140, by SUB +1200, by decision +480; Schmid by KO +800, by SUB +2800, by decision +600. Distance: +235.
The angle: A second cash fight: a 37-year-old puncher against a young fighter who got stopped in round one of his only UFC fight.
- Nakamura's lone UFC fight ended in a third-round knockout in January, so we're working from one fight. The books trust him anyway, and -140 on the knockout is short for a featherweight. Schmid ate 7.90 significant strikes per minute in his debut before the stoppage. The worry runs the other way too: Nakamura absorbed 5.72 per minute in his own debut. I'm still in on him in cash, and he's my second FanDuel MVP.
Lean: Nakamura by KO, I'm playing him in cash everywhere
Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba: Women's Strawweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Suarez -205, Jandiroba +170. Method: Suarez by KO +1100, by SUB +700, by decision -110; Jandiroba by KO +2700, by SUB +750, by decision +280. Distance: -300.
The angle: The DraftKings volume fight, where takedowns and control matter more than the finish.
- Suarez wins fights on the mat. She averages 4.52 takedowns every 15 minutes, and five of her nine UFC wins were submissions, the latest a second-round tap in April. Still, -110 for a decision tells you how the books see this one. That grappling piles up on DraftKings over 15 minutes, and FanDuel won't reward it the same way. DraftKings GPP core, FanDuel pass.
- Jandiroba is the reason Suarez stays out of my cash builds. She has four UFC losses, and the judges decided every one of them. She's 38, but she's a grappler too, with 3.13 takedowns and 1.39 submission attempts per 15 minutes. At $7,600 she's a GPP dart and nothing more.
Lean: Suarez by decision, DraftKings only
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Johnny Walker: Heavyweight, 5 rounds
Odds: Waldo Cortes Acosta -230, Johnny Walker +198. Method: Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO -120, by SUB +1800, by decision +500; Walker by KO +350, by SUB +1200, by decision +1100. Distance: +340.
The angle: My GPP fight: two heavyweights, 25 minutes, and a +340 price to reach the scorecards.
- Two straight decision losses, in May and September, and Cortes Acosta is still -230. Nobody has stopped him in the UFC, and six of his 11 UFC wins were knockouts. Our Elo is less sure than the books, with 57% for him against the market's 70%. That gap is why I only play him in tournaments.
- Is Walker the live dog on this card? I think so. He knocked out his last opponent in round one on October 3, and seven of his 10 UFC wins are knockouts. He's been knocked out four times himself, and his UFC fights average 7.1 minutes on the UFC fighter matchups page, so somebody usually goes down. He has the reach too, 82 inches to 78. At $7,500 I love him as a tournament play.
Lean: Cortes Acosta by KO, GPP; Walker by KO is the live-dog swing
Rest of the Card
- Elijah Smith vs Davey Grant: Smith is 24, unbeaten in four UFC fights and -310, with +195 on the knockout. Grant is 40. Smith belongs in cash, and I'm there too.
- Lucas Fernando vs Billy Elekana: Fernando is -325 with +165 on the knockout, but our Elo favors Elekana, who won his last two by submission. I'd keep Fernando to GPP, where the field will mostly look past him.
- Nina Milošević vs Priscila Cachoeira: Milošević is -500 with +165 on the KO and +185 on the submission, and Cachoeira has lost three straight. She isn't in the FanDuel pool, so she's a DraftKings play only at $9,500.
- Marcos Degli vs Mitch Raposo: Degli makes his UFC debut at -230 and +500 by submission. Raposo won his last two on the cards, and +104 to go the distance says this one could drag. I'd pass.
- Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço: Petersen stepped in late at -170, and Lorenço debuts at +145 with +250 on the knockout. Petersen has two knockout losses in his last five, so Lorenço is a fair GPP dart.
- Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes: Silva is -225 and +280 by submission, but she's dropped two straight decisions, and this fight is -135 to go the distance. Fernandes got knocked out in round one in March. Silva is a DraftKings-only option.
- Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov: A pick'em at -120 and +100. Delano lands 8.43 significant strikes per minute across two UFC decisions, while Magomedov finished both of his and sits at +360 by submission. Magomedov is my GPP side.
- Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon: FanDuel only. Bashi is -550 and -115 by submission, with 6.09 takedowns per 15 minutes, against a short-notice debut. He'll be FanDuel chalk, and he's earned it.
- Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman: Ko is -675, the heaviest price of the night, and all three of his UFC wins went the distance. Turman hasn't fought in 35 months. Ko's 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes make him a DraftKings cash play and a weaker one on FanDuel.
- Jose Henrique vs Jonny Parsons: Henrique is -230 with +155 on the knockout, and Parsons hasn't fought in 40 months. Our Elo prefers Parsons, which I note and then ignore. DraftKings lists Henrique under a name with no bout on the official card, so check the pool before you use him.
Injuries and News
| Fighter | Change | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|
| Mantas Kondratavičius | Now faces Andre Petroski, was booked against Wes Schultz | Still -300, still my cash anchor |
| Andre Petroski | Now faces Mantas Kondratavičius, was booked against Azamat Bekoev | Two straight KO losses and a new opponent, pass |
| Gabriel Lorenço | Now faces Thomas Petersen, was booked against Alvin Hines | UFC debut in a new matchup, GPP only |
| Austin Bashi | Now faces Carlos Calderon, was booked against Lucas Brennan | FanDuel only, still a heavy favorite |
| Jose Henrique | DraftKings lists him as Jose Souza, a name with no bout on the official card | Check the DraftKings pool before lock |
| Fighter | Flag | Scratch risk | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Petroski | New opponent, KO loss under 6 months ago | Moderate | Pass |
| Thomas Petersen | Short-notice replacement | Low | Small favorite, no cash exposure |
| Carlos Calderon | Short-notice replacement, UFC debut | Low | FanDuel punt only |
| Gabriel Lorenço | New opponent, UFC debut | Low | GPP dart |
| Mantas Kondratavičius | New opponent | Low | The books didn't move off him, and I won't either |
| Johnny Walker | Quick turnaround, 35 days | Low | Still my favorite dog |
| Wellington Turman | 35 months out | Low | Rust helps Ko |
| Jonny Parsons | 40 months out | Low | Fade |
Updated every hour on the UFC late changes board.
Model Bets
| Bet | Best price | Sim chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Milošević by decision | +550 | 16% | +6% |
| Prop | Best price | Sim chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker over 0.5 takedowns | +400 | 38% | +92% |
| Virna Jandiroba under 1.5 takedowns | +130 | 56% | +28% |
| Elijah Smith under 1.5 takedowns | -135 | 73% | +27% |
Nina Milošević wins by decision (+550) | Edge: +6%
Milošević gets a decision in 16% of the sims, and +550 prices that near 15%. I expect her to finish Cachoeira, so this is a small hedge on her going the full 15 minutes.
The props all lean on grappling numbers. Walker rarely shoots, yet the sim gets him a takedown in 38% of its runs against a +400 price, and Smith under 1.5 takedowns fits a matchup where Grant stops 68.6% of takedown attempts. These props aren't graded yet, so keep them small.
These come off the fight simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Compare every price on the UFC odds comparison.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantas Kondratavičius | Andre Petroski | $9,300 | $20 | -300 | KO | Cash |
| Keiichiro Nakamura | Ollie Schmid | $9,400 | $21 | -375 | KO | Cash |
| Elijah Smith | Davey Grant | $9,100 | $18 | -310 | KO or SUB | Cash |
| Seokhyeon Ko | Wellington Turman | $9,700 | $23 | -675 | decision | Cash |
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | Waldo Cortes Acosta | $7,500 | $15 | +198 | KO | GPP |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | Johnny Walker | $8,700 | $19 | -230 | KO | GPP |
| Tatiana Suarez | Virna Jandiroba | $8,600 | $18 | -205 | decision | GPP |
| Lucas Fernando | Billy Elekana | $9,200 | $19 | -325 | KO | GPP |
| Murtazali Magomedov | Jose Delano | $8,200 | $16 | +100 | SUB | GPP |
| Fighter | FD | Moneyline | Round 1 finish | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantas Kondratavičius | $20 | -300 | -120 | Best early KO path |
| Keiichiro Nakamura | $21 | -375 | +185 | Power against a fragile debut |
Blue marks a cash play, orange marks a GPP play.
FanDuel pays more for the early finish, so Kondratavičius and Nakamura climb there while Suarez and Ko slide. On DraftKings, Ko's takedowns and Suarez's control give them a floor that FanDuel doesn't pay for. Every projection lives on this week's UFC DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free UFC lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
Kondratavičius, Nakamura and Smith are my cash core. All three are -300 or shorter, and each one can end it early. On DraftKings, Ko is the next name I'd add if the salary works.
Walker is the pivot. He's +198, the knockout pays +350, and he gets 25 minutes to find it. He'll draw a smaller crowd than the chalk favorites below him. On FanDuel, Kondratavičius is my MVP, with Nakamura right behind.
Before lock, check the four fighters on new opponents and confirm Henrique's name in the DraftKings pool. If Milošević shows up on FanDuel late, she goes into my builds there too.
More cards in the UFC DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this card
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN UFC tools: UFC DFS projections, the free UFC lineup optimizer, the UFC fight simulator, UFC fighter matchups, and UFC odds comparison.