Amanda Nunes hasn't fought in 41 months, and she walks into Madison Square Garden as a +146 underdog to Kayla Harrison in the co-main of UFC 334. The UFC DFS headliner is Ciryl Gane against an unbeaten Josh Hokit over five rounds, while DraftKings and FanDuel both have to price around Bilal Hasan at -950. FanDuel also left Juan Diaz vs Alatengheili off its slate, and only three fights on the card are favored to reach the scorecards.
The Card
Switch tabs for the full card and how last week's calls did.
| Bout | Weight | Rounds | Moneyline | Goes the distance | DK salary | FD salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit | Heavyweight | 5 | -210 / +185 | +215 | $9,000 / $7,200 | $20 / $10 |
| Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes | Women's Bantamweight | 5 | -166 / +146 | +164 | $8,800 / $7,400 | $18 / $12 |
| Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui | Middleweight | 3 | -158 / +136 | -185 | $8,500 / $7,700 | $17 / $13 |
| Uroš Medić vs Kevin Holland | Welterweight | 3 | -155 / +130 | +390 | $8,400 / $7,800 | $16 / $14 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule | Flyweight | 3 | -950 / +710 | +470 | $9,800 / $6,400 | $23 / $7 |
| Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke | Welterweight | 3 | -148 / +128 | -164 | $8,300 / $7,900 | $16 / $14 |
| Chris Duncan vs Drew Dober | Lightweight | 3 | -176 / +150 | +285 | $8,600 / $7,600 | $17 / $13 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Jim Miller | Lightweight | 3 | -205 / +180 | +900 | $8,900 / $7,300 | $19 / $11 |
| Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida | Catchweight | 3 | -185 / +154 | +240 | $8,700 / $7,500 | $19 / $11 |
| Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon | Lightweight | 3 | -380 / +300 | +150 | $9,300 / $6,900 | $21 / $8 |
| Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson | Women's Bantamweight | 3 | -245 / +205 | +200 | $9,100 / $7,100 | $20 / $9 |
| Juan Diaz vs Alatengheili | Bantamweight | 3 | -410 / +320 | -185 | $9,200 / $7,000 | Not listed / Not listed |
| Samuel Sanches vs Evan Elder | Lightweight | 3 | -118 / -102 | +126 | $8,200 / $8,000 | $15 / $15 |
| Call from the 11/07 playbook | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Kondratavičius by first-round KO, cash core and FanDuel MVP | Lost to Petroski by KO in round two | Miss |
| Nakamura by KO, cash | Lost a decision to Schmid | Miss |
| Suarez by decision, DraftKings only | Won a decision | Hit |
| Cortes Acosta by KO, GPP, with Walker as the live dog | Walker won by KO in round three | Miss |
| Cash core: Kondratavičius, Nakamura, Smith | Only Smith won, by KO in round one | Miss |
| Model Bets: Milošević by decision | She won by KO in round two | 0-1 |
McKinney vs Miller is +900 to reach the judges, and McKinney's UFC bouts last 2.8 minutes on average. Last week was rough: two of my three cash anchors lost, and my FanDuel MVP got knocked out. Walker stopping Cortes Acosta was the one call that cashed, and I had him as the swing, not the lean. Every outcome lives on the UFC fight simulator.
Fights to Target
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule: Flyweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Hasan -950, Gurule +710. Method: Hasan by KO -310, by SUB +1100, by decision +600; Gurule by KO +1100, by SUB +2800, by decision +2500. Distance: +470.
The angle: Cash fight number one, with the safest finish on the card.
- Hasan is 25, 2-0 in the UFC, and both wins were knockouts that ended inside about four minutes on average. He lands 9.01 significant strikes a minute, and our sims finish this one in the first round 43% of the time. He costs $9,800, a big chunk of cap, but -310 on the knockout is the shortest finish price on the card. Cash core, and the first name in my FanDuel MVP slot.
- Gurule is 1-4 over his last five fights, with one knockout loss and one submission loss, and he gives up six inches of reach. He's a $6,400 punt with no real finishing path, since he has no UFC knockdowns. I'd pass.
Lean: Hasan by KO in the first two rounds, cash plus the FanDuel MVP slot
Terrance McKinney vs Jim Miller: Lightweight, 3 rounds
Odds: McKinney -205, Miller +180. Method: McKinney by KO +130, by SUB +290, by decision +2000; Miller by KO +800, by SUB +320, by decision +1900. Distance: +900.
The angle: Somebody gets finished here, and the sim has McKinney as the most likely first-round winner on the slate.
- Every one of McKinney's eight UFC wins came inside the distance, five by knockout and three by submission. The flip side is just as loud: he's been knocked out five times, most recently in July. That's why he sits at $8,900 and not higher. The sim gives him a round one finish half the time, and I'll take that swing in cash and as my second FanDuel MVP.
- Miller is 43, and our Elo still rates him above McKinney. Eight of his UFC wins ended in a submission, most recently in May, and +320 on the tapout is the live path. At $7,300 he's a GPP dart for people who expect McKinney to get dropped into a scramble. I'll have a little.
Lean: McKinney inside the distance, cash plus my backup FanDuel MVP
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit: Heavyweight, 5 rounds
Odds: Gane -210, Hokit +185. Method: Gane by KO +135, by SUB +1000, by decision +390; Hokit by KO +450, by SUB +900, by decision +650. Distance: +215.
The angle: The GPP fight: 25 minutes, a cheap unbeaten dog and a favorite who rarely gets hit.
- Gane rarely takes clean shots. He absorbs 2.31 significant strikes per minute, nobody has knocked him out in 14 UFC fights, and he's 81 inches in reach to Hokit's 73.5. He finished his last fight by knockout in June, and +135 on the KO is fair for a heavyweight with five rounds to find it. He'll be popular at $9,000, so I'm mixing him in, not locking him.
- Hokit is the price I want. He's 5-0 in the UFC with four knockouts, and he lands 9.29 significant strikes per minute on the UFC fighter matchups page with 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes on top. He also takes a lot back, 5.28 per minute, and Gane is a big step up. At $7,200 the volume and wrestling give him a path even in a loss that goes long. I love him as a GPP pivot.
Lean: Gane by KO, but Hokit is my tournament piece
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes: Women's Bantamweight, 5 rounds
Odds: Harrison -166, Nunes +146. Method: Harrison by KO +800, by SUB +200, by decision +300; Nunes by KO +300, by SUB +2000, by decision +550. Distance: +164.
The angle: The second GPP fight, where the books and our Elo split.
- Is the market too sure about Harrison? She's 3-0 in the UFC with two submissions, she averages 2.84 takedowns per 15 minutes, and no one has taken her down yet. But she's 17 months removed from her last fight, and her UFC sample is three bouts. On DraftKings, five rounds of top control is a real floor. She's a GPP play for me, mostly on DraftKings.
- Nunes is 38 and hasn't fought since June 2023, which is the whole reason she's +146. Our Elo still makes her the favorite. She stops 88% of takedown attempts, and +300 on the knockout is her ceiling path at $7,400. If she's the fighter she was in 2023, ,400 is far too cheap. Small GPP shares, nothing more.
Lean: Harrison by submission, GPP; Nunes by KO is the upside dart
Rest of the Card
- Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui: Borralho is -158, but seven of his 10 UFC wins went to the cards, and the decision is +140. Belgaroui has four straight knockouts. At -185 to go the distance, it's a DraftKings-only spot for Borralho, and I'd mostly pass.
- Uroš Medić vs Kevin Holland: Medić won all nine of his UFC fights by knockout and is +110 to do it again. FanDuel flagged Holland as out earlier in the week, so I'm only using Medić once Holland's status is confirmed.
- Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: Thompson is 43, -148, and has won once in his last five fights. Radtke averages 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes at +128, which makes him a DraftKings GPP dart.
- Chris Duncan vs Drew Dober: Duncan is -176, with three submission wins in his last five, and Dober has 11 UFC wins by knockout at +215 to add another. Duncan is a GPP play, and I'd skip Dober.
- Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida: Johnson is 4-0 in the UFC and -185, with +140 on the knockout. Almeida is 38 and got knocked out in July. Johnson is a solid cash option at $8,700.
- Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon: Costa moves up to lightweight at -380, with +160 on the knockout. Gordon has dropped his last two, by submission and by knockout. Costa is cash core.
- Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson: Mesquita has three UFC wins, all submissions, and the tapout is even money at +100. Chiasson has lost three straight decisions. Cash core on both sites.
- Juan Diaz vs Alatengheili: DraftKings only. Diaz is -410 against a replacement opponent, and five of Alatengheili's six UFC wins went to decision. With the late switch, I'm leaving this fight alone.
- Samuel Sanches vs Evan Elder: A pick'em at -118 and -102. Sanches knocked out his lone UFC opponent in two minutes, and Elder hasn't fought in 19 months. Sanches at +195 on the knockout is a fair GPP flier.
Injuries and News
| Fighter | Change | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Diaz | Now faces Alatengheili, was booked against Adrian Yañez | Off FanDuel, and I'm off him on DraftKings |
| Kevin Holland | FanDuel listed him as out on Nov. 9 | Confirm the bout before you play Medić |
| Donte Johnson | Now faces Cesar Almeida, was booked against Baisangur Susurkaev | Still -185, still a cash option |
| Melquizael Costa | Moving up to lightweight | The books didn't care, -380 |
| Fighter | Flag | Scratch risk | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Diaz | New opponent | Low | Pass |
| Alatengheili | Short-notice replacement | Low | Pass |
| Amanda Nunes | 41 months out, age 38 | Low | Rust is why she's cheap, GPP only |
| Kayla Harrison | 17 months out | Low | Keeps her out of cash |
| Terrance McKinney | KO loss under 6 months ago | Low | Chin risk is priced in, still cash |
| Melquizael Costa | Weight class change, moving up | Low | Still cash core |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 months out, age 43 | Low | Fade |
| Evan Elder | 19 months out | Low | Lean Sanches |
Updated every hour on the UFC late changes board.
Model Bets
| Bet | Best price | Sim chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney wins in round 3 | +4500 | 3% | +33% |
| Bilal Hasan by decision | +650 | 14% | +5% |
| Prop | Best price | Sim chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison under 2.5 takedowns | -115 | 73% | +36% |
| Caio Borralho under 1.5 takedowns | +110 | 64% | +35% |
| Terrance McKinney under 23.5 significant strikes | -115 | 67% | +25% |
Terrance McKinney wins in round three (+4500) | Edge: +33%
Size it like the long shot it is. The sim lands McKinney in a third-round win only 3% of the time, but +4500 implies close to 2%, so the price is a little too long.
Bilal Hasan wins by decision (+650) | Edge: +5%
Hasan goes the full 15 minutes and wins in 14% of the sims, a touch above what +650 implies. It's a small hedge on a fight I expect him to finish.
All three props sit on the under. The Harrison under cashes if she lands two takedowns or fewer over five rounds against a fighter who stops 88% of them, and McKinney's fights rarely last long enough to pile up strikes. We haven't graded these props yet, so size them small.
These come off the fight simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Compare every price on the UFC odds comparison.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Hasan | Luis Gurule | $9,800 | $23 | -950 | KO | Cash |
| Melquizael Costa | Jared Gordon | $9,300 | $21 | -380 | KO or SUB | Cash |
| Bia Mesquita | Macy Chiasson | $9,100 | $20 | -245 | SUB | Cash |
| Terrance McKinney | Jim Miller | $8,900 | $19 | -205 | KO or SUB | Cash |
| Donte Johnson | Cesar Almeida | $8,700 | $19 | -185 | KO | Cash |
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hokit | Ciryl Gane | $7,200 | $10 | +185 | KO | GPP |
| Ciryl Gane | Josh Hokit | $9,000 | $20 | -210 | KO | GPP |
| Kayla Harrison | Amanda Nunes | $8,800 | $18 | -166 | SUB | GPP |
| Amanda Nunes | Kayla Harrison | $7,400 | $12 | +146 | KO | GPP |
| Chris Duncan | Drew Dober | $8,600 | $17 | -176 | KO or SUB | GPP |
| Fighter | FD | Moneyline | Round 1 finish | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Hasan | $23 | -950 | +105 | Shortest KO price on the card |
| Terrance McKinney | $19 | -205 | -140 | His fights rarely see round two |
Blue marks a cash play, orange marks a GPP play.
FanDuel rewards the fast finish, so Hasan and McKinney matter even more there, and Harrison's control time doesn't count for anything. On DraftKings, Harrison and Hokit get credit for wrestling that FanDuel ignores, which is why both sit higher on my DraftKings builds. Every projection lives on this week's UFC DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free UFC lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
Hasan, Costa and Mesquita form my cash core. Each one is -245 or shorter, and each has a clear finishing path, Hasan and Costa on the feet and Mesquita on the mat. McKinney is the fourth name if the salary fits, as long as you accept the chin risk.
Hokit is the pivot. He's unbeaten and costs $7,200, and most of the field will be on Gane. On FanDuel, Hasan is my MVP, with McKinney right behind him.
Before lock, confirm Kevin Holland is fighting before you touch Medić, and check the FanDuel pool in case Diaz vs Alatengheili shows up late. There's no weigh-in news in our feed, so recheck the late changes board an hour before the first fight.
More cards in the UFC DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this card
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN UFC tools: UFC DFS projections, the free UFC lineup optimizer, the UFC fight simulator, UFC fighter matchups, and UFC odds comparison.