NFL Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE)
2026 season through Week 5, updated Oct 12, 10:35 AM CT
Through Week 5, the Cincinnati Bengals pass more than any team relative to the situation, at +3.3 projected PROE. The Miami Dolphins are the most run heavy at -7.5. Teams have called passes on 60.8% of plays against an expected 62.8%.
Most pass heavy
Cincinnati Bengals+3.3+5.5 season
Kansas City Chiefs+2.1+2.3 season
Dallas Cowboys+1.9+3.8 season
Arizona Cardinals+1.7+1.1 season
Pittsburgh Steelers+1.2+3.6 seasonMost run heavy
Miami Dolphins-7.5-11.4 season
Los Angeles Chargers-6.2-11.6 season
Atlanta Falcons-5.7-9.1 season
Baltimore Ravens-5.0-5.7 season
Tennessee Titans-4.8-6.7 season| Team | Pass rate | PROE (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Neutral | Red zone | Last 4 | Projected | Prior season | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 66.2% | +5.5 | +7.5 | -1.0 | +5.7 | +3.3 | +1.7 |
 Carolina Panthers | 67.0% | +4.2 | +5.3 | +10.7 | +4.2 | +0.3 | -6.1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 68.5% | +3.8 | +4.1 | -2.2 | +4.6 | +1.9 | -1.0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 67.7% | +3.6 | +5.6 | +8.2 | +1.8 | +1.2 | -0.7 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 56.5% | +2.9 | +2.8 | +9.3 | +2.4 | +1.0 | -0.9 |
 Green Bay Packers | 67.8% | +2.9 | -0.2 | -0.4 | +4.3 | +0.7 | -4.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 57.3% | +2.3 | +0.9 | +10.1 | +2.3 | +2.1 | +4.0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 65.3% | +1.1 | -0.9 | +4.7 | +1.8 | +1.7 | +4.0 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 64.5% | +0.8 | +4.0 | -5.6 | +0.8 | +1.2 | +3.0 |
 Detroit Lions | 62.7% | +0.7 | +1.0 | -0.1 | +0.8 | -0.7 | -4.6 |
 New England Patriots | 59.6% | +0.3 | +0.7 | +6.8 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +2.4 |
 Cleveland Browns | 63.9% | +0.1 | +4.8 | +1.7 | +2.2 | -0.4 | -3.7 |
 New Orleans Saints | 67.2% | -0.4 | -2.1 | +3.3 | -1.8 | -1.3 | -3.0 |
 Houston Texans | 65.3% | -1.1 | -2.5 | -7.2 | +0.7 | -0.4 | -1.0 |
 Buffalo Bills | 58.4% | -1.6 | -3.8 | -3.0 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -3.5 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 60.2% | -2.6 | -0.7 | -6.6 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.8 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 59.1% | -2.6 | +1.7 | -11.6 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -0.9 |
 Chicago Bears | 54.7% | -2.7 | -5.0 | -9.0 | -3.0 | -2.4 | -3.9 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 62.8% | -2.9 | -5.0 | -3.0 | -3.8 | -2.5 | -3.5 |
 New York Jets | 59.4% | -3.0 | -0.2 | -8.4 | -1.1 | -3.2 | -8.8 |
 Washington Commanders | 60.9% | -3.3 | -3.8 | -8.9 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -4.3 |
 Denver Broncos | 60.8% | -3.3 | +0.4 | +0.2 | -4.3 | -1.5 | +1.6 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 56.9% | -3.8 | -3.9 | +0.2 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -1.2 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 62.7% | -4.3 | -4.2 | -21.2 | -3.9 | -2.6 | -2.5 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 55.0% | -4.4 | -3.1 | -6.5 | -4.8 | -1.8 | +1.6 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 55.1% | -4.5 | -5.1 | -4.9 | -4.3 | -3.9 | -6.8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 52.6% | -5.7 | -9.8 | -12.1 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -8.8 |
 New York Giants | 57.9% | -6.0 | -9.1 | -16.1 | -6.5 | -4.4 | -4.7 |
| Tennessee Titans | 64.5% | -6.7 | -9.9 | -20.0 | -9.2 | -4.8 | -3.9 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 49.4% | -9.1 | -10.0 | -18.2 | -7.2 | -5.7 | -6.2 |
| Miami Dolphins | 58.6% | -11.4 | -8.6 | -29.8 | -13.8 | -7.5 | -5.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 57.3% | -11.6 | -12.4 | -14.9 | -13.5 | -6.2 | +0.6 |
What is PROE?
PROE stands for pass rate over expectation. Every offensive play gets an expected pass probability from its down, distance, field position, time left and score. A team's PROE is its actual called pass rate minus the average of those probabilities. Dropbacks count as called passes, so scrambles and sacks count as passes too.
A positive PROE means the team throws more than an average team would in the same spots. A negative PROE means it runs more.
Why PROE matters for fantasy football
A team's future pass volume depends on two things: game script and how pass heavy the coaching staff is. Game script swings week to week and is hard to predict. PROE holds steadier, so it is a better read on how aggressive an offense will be than its raw pass rate, which a blowout or a comeback can bend.
Combine PROE with the spread and total for the best estimate of next week's pass attempts. A pass heavy team that is also an underdog is the strongest setup for its quarterback and receivers.
Neutral, red zone and last 4 explained
Neutral PROE keeps only plays where the game is competitive (win probability between 20 and 80 percent) and outside the last two minutes of each half, and drops spikes, kneels and botched snaps. It is the cleanest read on coaching intent.
Red zone PROE covers plays inside the opponent's 20. It helps predict whether a team scores its touchdowns through the air or on the ground, but the sample is small, so check the play count in the row detail. Last 4 shows recent intent, which catches a play caller change or a new quarterback faster than the season number.
What projected PROE adds
Projected PROE blends the season number, the last four games and half of last season's PROE, weighted by how many plays each team has run. In week by week tests on the 2023 to 2025 seasons it predicted the next game's PROE with about 10 percent less error than the raw season number, mostly because early season samples are noisy.
Frequently asked questions
How is pass rate over expectation calculated?
For each play we take the expected pass probability from the public nflfastR model. PROE is the actual share of called passes minus the average expected pass probability over the same plays.
Is a high PROE good?
For fantasy, usually yes. More passing means more targets and more quarterback volume. It does not mean the offense is better, only more pass heavy.
How often is PROE updated?
Every day of the season, after the play by play data updates from the most recent games.
Does PROE include the playoffs?
No. It uses regular season games only.
Is this tool free?
Yes, with no account.