The Game
Week 2 closes at Arrowhead Stadium, where Kansas City lays 6.5 points to Indianapolis under a 46.5-point total, with team totals of 26.5 and 20. It's open air here, and the forecast reads 73F and overcast on a 9.2 mph breeze gusting to 13.9, calm enough that neither kicker loses anything and neither deep passing game does either.
The two got here by opposite routes, since Kansas City handled Denver 31-10 on Monday night while Mahomes dropped back 27 times, and Indianapolis lost 41-23 in Baltimore with Daniel Jones throwing 31. That matches their two-year baselines of 57.8% and 53.2% dropbacks, and neither offense shuts the pass off with a lead. Indianapolis lined up in 12 personnel on 43.6% of its plays a year ago against 34.1% for Kansas City, and neither team plays two backs at all, which tells me who's still out there in a one-score fourth quarter.
The positional matchups all point one way, and the pricing points another. Indianapolis surrendered the third-most DK scoring to receivers last season and the seventh-most to tight ends, while Kansas City sat seventh-stingiest against tight ends. The opponent-adjusted ratings are blunter still, making Kansas City receivers against this Indianapolis secondary the widest positional edge anywhere on this field, Mahomes against the same defense a close second, and Daniel Jones against the Kansas City defense the worst individual spot in the game. Indianapolis owns the one ground edge on offer, since Kansas City's softest lane a year ago was the right edge at 6.26 YPC and the Colts averaged 4.58 through that gap with four scores on 31 carries.
Kansas City scoring twice early, Indianapolis abandoning the run and Jones throwing 40 times while Mahomes keeps answering is the script where six names on this board all pay off at once. The one that ruins it is a 24-13 Kansas City evening built on Walker taking 25 carries and the clock, where the right top slot is a kicker or a defense and almost nobody has one there.
Indianapolis Colts
Alec Pierce ($7,600) took 20.7% of the Colts targets in Baltimore and 51.2% of their air yards, catching four of six for 61 yards, and 5.3 targets project tonight against reception and yardage lines of 3.0 and 20.5. His split favored zone last season at 12.59 YPT against 10.82 on man, a lean rather than a fact since it's last year's number, and Kansas City leaned zone on 78.9% of its snaps a year ago. His outcomes pile up low with a long tail off to the right, so he belongs in large-field lineups rather than anywhere safe.
Josh Downs ($6,600) sits at 5.7 projected targets and a 4.5-reception line, the highest on this side alongside Warren, off two catches on four looks for 37 yards in the opener. His coverage numbers run backwards for tonight though, 7.66 YPT against man and 6.39 against zone, so the defense he draws takes away what he does best. Keenan Allen ($5,600) caught all six of his targets for 32 yards and projects for 4.5, but his middle outcome is the lowest of any Colt above $5,000.
Tyler Warren ($7,200) is the name I keep coming back to on this board. He drew a 17.2% target share and scored on five looks last week, 6.6 targets project tonight, the largest target number anyone in this game carries, and the market has posted a 4.5-reception number on him. Kansas City allowed the seventh-fewest DK points to tight ends last year and that's the honest argument against him, but the ratings still give Indianapolis tight end a positive spread there, and at $10,800 in the CPT slot he leads this game in scoring more often than the room will put him there. Every cash-game build I put together includes him, and he's my large-field top slot.
Jonathan Taylor ($11,000) carries the biggest tag on either sideline after 19 rushes for 98 yards, two scores and three catches, with 18.6 carries and 2.9 targets projected. The lane is real, since the right edge is where Kansas City bled 6.26 a carry and where Indianapolis converted four touchdowns on 31 attempts, and only Walker carries a wider top quartile. The catch is that he needs this to stay a game, because a team implied for 20 that falls behind by two scores stops handing the ball off, and he fumbled last week besides. I want him in the FLEX on nearly everything and I'll leave the top slot to other people.
Spencer Shrader ($4,600) kicks for the lighter side with no wind to complain about and a bottom end that rarely collapses. The Colts D/ST ($3,200) is the cheapest route to a positive top-slot spread here, and one returned interception is the whole bet.
Daniel Jones ($9,200) completed 19 of 31 for 166 yards with a touchdown and an interception, took every Indianapolis pass attempt in the opener, and comes in at 29.2 projected attempts against lines of 221 passing yards and 21 completions, the highest completion number posted on either side. The ratings put him in the roughest spot on this field and I'm not going to pretend otherwise, but he tops this scoreboard far more often than the room will ever put him in the CPT slot, and nobody else here carries a bigger disconnect. His $13,800 tag up top still pays for Mahomes and a real tight end behind it. A cash-game FLEX spot suits him, and in a big field he's how I get different.
Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice ($9,400) turned both of his targets into catches and one into a score, projects for 6.1 targets, and carries the biggest receiving yardage line on the slate at 25.5 next to a 4.5-reception number. He averaged 9.89 YPT against zone last season and 4.57 against man, and Indianapolis played zone on 71.1% of its snaps a year ago, a lean off last season rather than a promise. He also comes up empty more often than any other receiver or tight end above $5,000 here, so I'll take the ceiling and hold my nose.
Xavier Worthy ($5,400) drew six targets and 31.6% of the Kansas City air yards in Denver, projects for 5.1 with a 3.5-reception line, and his ceiling arrives more often than any other receiver's here. At $8,100 up top he's the cheapest real ceiling in this game and the piece that changes what the rest of a roster can afford. Cyrus Allen ($2,800) projects for 2.3 targets and Tyquan Thornton ($3,800) for 1.5, so I'd rather pay a thousand less for the bigger number.
Travis Kelce ($6,200) caught three of five for 71 yards on a 20.0% share and projects for 5.7 targets into a secondary that gave up the seventh-most DK scoring to tight ends last season, and Kansas City's heavy 12 personnel usage means he almost never leaves the huddle. Only Worthy and the cheap tight end behind him hit a ceiling more often among the Chiefs pass catchers, and $9,300 is a fair CPT tag for it. The books posted reception numbers on Rice and Worthy and nothing at all on Kelce, and I'd rather put that on the page than leave it out. Noah Gray ($3,000) projects for 1.9 targets, ran 8.02 YPT against zone last season versus 6.00 against man, and he's the cheap body here with an actual role.
Kenneth Walker III ($10,600) ran 23 times for 173 yards and a score and added three catches for 18 and another, the best single performance anybody brought into this game, and 21.3 carries and 3.3 targets project tonight. Indianapolis was mid-pack against backs last year and its soft lane was left tackle at 5.30 YPC, so the running room is fine rather than exciting. The books carry a 31.5 rushing number on Emmett Johnson and nothing at all on Walker, which is a strange way to price a back coming off 173 yards. He's the most popular top slot here while holding only a slim lead as the likeliest top scorer, so I want him in the FLEX everywhere and in the CPT slot on a fraction of what the room turns in. Emmett Johnson ($3,600) took eight carries for 24 yards and turned two targets into 44 more, projects for 4.9 carries against that 31.5 line, and pass-game work at this price is the cheapest usable thing on this side.
Harrison Butker ($5,000) kicks for the 26.5-point side on a calm night and misses a usable score less often than anybody here. The Chiefs D/ST ($4,200) is the better of the two units on merit, since Indianapolis has to keep throwing if this gets away early.
Patrick Mahomes ($10,000) threw 15 of 27 for 184 yards and two scores, added seven carries for 23 yards and a rushing touchdown, and comes in at 29.8 attempts and 3.3 carries against lines of 244.5 passing and 18 rushing yards. He collapses less often than anyone here except Harrison Butker, his $15,000 tag sits $900 beneath Walker and $1,500 beneath Taylor, and he's the only name in the top three whose CPT popularity doesn't run past how often he deserves the spot. There is no cash-game version of this slate without him, and he takes the top slot on my single entry.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | Overall | $10,600 | 173 rushing yards and two scores in the opener. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Overall | $10,000 | Steadiest floor in the game, priced under both backs. |
| Jonathan Taylor | Overall | $11,000 | Second-widest top quartile, into the gap Kansas City leaks through. |
| Travis Kelce | Overall | $6,200 | Seventh-most generous tight end defense, and he never leaves the field. |
| Xavier Worthy | Value | $5,400 | Six targets and a third of the Chiefs air yards at a third-tier price. |
| Noah Gray | Value | $3,000 | Two tight end sets and a zone split that fits this defense. |
| Daniel Jones | Leverage | $9,200 | Leads this game in scoring far more often than the room captains him. |
| Tyler Warren | Leverage | $7,200 | Most targets in the game, CPT tag $5,700 under Taylor's. |
| Colts D/ST | Leverage | $3,200 | One returned interception makes this the right captain. |
| Emmett Johnson | Dart Throw | $3,600 | 44 receiving yards in Denver and a rushing line the starter lacks. |
The Captain's Chair
Patrick Mahomes takes the top slot on a single-entry roster, because his bottom end is the steadiest here outside the kickers, his $15,000 tag keeps both backs affordable underneath, and he's the only one of the three expensive names whose popularity up top hasn't already outrun how often he wins the spot. Tyler Warren is where I go when the pool gets large, since $10,800 buys Mahomes and Walker beneath him and a tight end with the most targets in this game against a defense that leaked to the position all last season needs one red zone look to pay for the roster. Daniel Jones is the one I use to sit by myself, since nobody here carries a wider gap between leading this game in scoring and getting captained.
Three numbers out of the winning-lineup archive apply here. Just 8% of first-place showdown rosters used the full cap and about one in four left $2,000 or more sitting there, so a $10,800 Warren or a $13,800 Jones on top buys quality rather than giving it up. 93% carried a quarterback and 48% carried the pair, which puts Mahomes and Jones together more often than not. 61% carried a kicker or a defense, so Butker at $5,000 and the Colts unit at $3,200 earn their slots rather than filling them.
Stack Ideas
CPT Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Daniel Jones, Noah Gray
Where I start, with the Chiefs passing game stacked into the softest secondary here and Jones as the bring-back if Indianapolis chases.
CPT Kenneth Walker III, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, Colts D/ST
Kansas City controls it on the ground, and the two Colts who still eat in a negative script sit beside a defense that cashes on the same one.
CPT Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Travis Kelce, Noah Gray
The chase roster, needing the Chiefs up two scores at halftime and Indianapolis throwing 40 times, with the two Kansas City tight ends as the cheap bring-back.
CPT Tyler Warren, Jonathan Taylor, Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Noah Gray, Spencer Shrader
Every dollar of the cap goes out the door, with three of the four biggest ceilings here under a tight end almost nobody captains.
CPT Chiefs D/ST, Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Travis Kelce, Jonathan Taylor, Xavier Worthy
The entry no one else submits, needing the Kansas City rush to take two Jones drives away, with a $6,300 top slot buying four real prices.
Model Recommended Bets
We land on Kansas City 25.7, Indianapolis 18.4, a 44.2-point game sitting more than two points beneath the posted total, and there are two markets worth acting on.
Under 46.5 (-110) is the firmer of the pair. This game goes over on our side 43.0% of the time against a devigged market price of 50.0%, a 7.0-point disagreement, and it comes from the same place the positional ratings did, since Indianapolis has to move the ball against the one unit on this field that rates well above it while Kansas City has a back who can take the fourth quarter off the clock by himself.
Indianapolis moneyline (+225) is thinner and I'd call it a lean rather than a play. The Colts win outright 30.6% of the time for us against 26.7% devigged, a 3.9-point gap, which is mostly an argument that a touchdown is too many to lay on a September road team with a healthy quarterback and a workhorse back.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
There isn't a long touchdown price in this game I want tonight. Our two disagreements with the books are both on short ones: Jonathan Taylor scores 51.6% of the time on our side against a fair price of 40.5%, and Kenneth Walker III sits at 52.3% against 43.5%. Taylor is worth shopping around, since one book has him at +175 and another at -155 on the same bet, and at +175 he's the only real number in this section. Walker is -220 at the only shop carrying him, and at that price I'd rather just roster him.
Out at the long end the market is ahead of us on both Colts worth naming. Anthony Gould goes off at +1200 where the fair figure is near 6.4% and we have him at 2.9%, and Deion Burks is +2000 against 4.0% where we have 3.0%. Two cautions come with that. Week 2 volume is still part season-long seeded, so the levels are approximate, and no book in this game prices the other side of an anytime touchdown, which leaves the fair figures on the longest shots reading higher than they really are.
Final Thoughts
Give me a single entry and I take the straightforward roster with Mahomes on top, because a quarterback holding the second-widest positional edge on this field at a CPT price below both running backs is the cleanest thing on offer, and $15,000 there still pays for Walker, Kelce and Worthy behind him.
The live question before kickoff is the Kansas City backfield split, since Emmett Johnson carries a rushing number that Walker doesn't, and a heavier committee than last Monday suggested moves the most expensive Chief and the cheapest usable one at the same time.
In a big field I get away from the room with Warren on top and Kansas City brought back through Kelce and Gray, because the captain slot divides between Walker, Taylor and Mahomes in some order, and a tight end with the most targets in the game at $3,400 beneath Walker is the cheapest separation tonight.
Tools used for this slate
The build path starts with this week's NFL DFS projections and runs through the free NFL lineup optimizer.
The research came off NFL defense against the position for the Colts secondary, NFL Elo unit ratings for the widest edge on the field, NFL coverage splits by receiver for the zone leans, NFL run gap efficiency for Taylor's lane, NFL personnel groupings for the two tight end usage, and NFL vacated targets for the 119 looks Kansas City never replaced.
NFL game weather confirmed the open air night at Arrowhead, live NFL odds and totals carries the number the bet section argues with, and the rest sits on the NFL DFS hub. Run them before lock.