NFL DFS Matchups Week 10: 49ers at Cowboys Tops the Slate

Four teams on Sunday's main slate are set to use a different quarterback than they did in Week 9: Las Vegas with Fernando Mendoza, Minnesota with Kirk Cousins, Arizona with Carson Beck and Miami with Kyle McCord. It's Wednesday, so treat every injury note below as a first read that can change by Sunday.

Slate Overview

Switch tabs for the injuries and the line matchups that move this slate.

Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS

Pass Rush Mismatches

Cleveland ranks last in our pass protection ranks and gives up a sack on 11.8% of dropbacks. Will Anderson has 9.5 sacks and Danielle Hunter 21 pressures for a Houston front ranked second. The Browns quarterback, Watson or Sanders, is in for a long day, and the Texans D/ST is the best defense on the board.

Minnesota's front is first in our ranks and gets pressure on 35.5% of dropbacks. Dallas Turner leads it with 27 pressures, and Andrew Van Ginkel has 6.5 sacks. Green Bay's line is fourth and allows a sack on just 4.7% of dropbacks, so this is strength on strength, but the Vikings D/ST still has a path.

New Orleans gets Chase Young (eight sacks) and Carl Granderson (7.5) against a Carolina line ranked 24th that lets the quarterback get hit on 30.7% of dropbacks. We like the Saints D/ST.

Gregory Rousseau has 31 pressures for a Buffalo front ranked 16th. The Jets line is 30th and gives up a sack on 9.4% of dropbacks. That's enough to play the Bills D/ST.

Green Bay's rush ranks 15th, and Lukas Van Ness has 4.5 sacks. Minnesota's line is 28th with a 9.3% sack rate allowed, and Kirk Cousins has never played behind it. The Packers D/ST is live.

On the other side, the Rams have the top pass protection line in our ranks and allow pressure on 16.3% of dropbacks, and Arizona's rush is 20th. Skip the Cardinals D/ST.

San Francisco's rush is 30th in our ranks and meets a Dallas line ranked seventh that allows a sack on 4.0% of dropbacks. Dak Prescott gets time.

Atlanta's line is fifth and allows pressure on 15.4% of dropbacks. George Karlaftis has 22 pressures for a Chiefs front that ranks 29th, so leave the Kansas City D/ST alone.

Full line and pass rush ranks for every game: NFL OL vs DL matchups

Run Blocking Matchups

No line in our ranks run blocks better than the Rams', and their backs average 4.9 yards a carry. Arizona's run defense is 21st and allows 4.0. Kyren Williams gets the friendliest ground matchup on the slate, and Blake Corum gets some of it too.

Buffalo's line is second in run blocking against a Jets run defense ranked 29th. Bills backs average 4.6 yards a carry. James Cook should get more carries than any back on the slate.

Kansas City is third in run blocking, and Chiefs backs average 5.3 yards a carry. Atlanta's run defense is 23rd and gives up 4.7. That's a strong spot for Kenneth Walker III.

Las Vegas has the worst run blocking in our ranks and runs into Seattle, the best run defense in them. Raiders backs average 3.3 yards a carry, and Seattle holds backs to 3.2. Ashton Jeanty needs his catches.

Green Bay's run blocking is 31st, and Packers backs average 3.0 yards a carry. Minnesota's run defense ranks 11th. We're not paying for any piece of this backfield.

Arizona's line is 25th in run blocking and faces a Rams run defense ranked seventh that holds backs to 3.6. Tyler Allgeier is a touchdown dart.

Early Window, 1:00 PM ET

KC @ ATL

Team Totals: KC 24.1, ATL 21.2

Patrick Mahomes is questionable with an elbow injury, but he went 23 of 31 for 242 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9, and he still has his passing lines at the books. He should throw about 33 times at $6,000, and Justin Fields ($4,500) is next if he sits. Pace is neutral here, and Atlanta runs the 26th-most plays per game … Kenneth Walker III ran 18 times for 102 yards and a score in Week 9 and caught all four targets for 41 yards and two more scores. He should get about 19 carries and three targets at $9,200, the priciest back on the slate, behind the third-best run blocking line in our ranks. The field will load up on him … Rashee Rice caught five of seven for 49 yards. His 17.6% projected target share at $6,100 makes him a fringe WR2 … Xavier Worthy is questionable with a hamstring injury after catching all six of his targets … Travis Kelce ($4,700) caught four of six for 72 yards and ran one in.

Michael Penix Jr. went 20 of 31 for 162 yards, a touchdown and a pick in Week 9, and he ran three times for 50 yards. He should throw about 32 times at $4,900, a fair price for this game. Atlanta protects well, fifth in our ranks, and the Chiefs rush is 29th, so he'll have a clean pocket … Bijan Robinson ran 19 times for 100 yards and a score and caught six of seven for 47. He should get about 19 carries and five or six targets at $8,200. Kansas City's run defense ranks sixth and allows backs 3.4 yards a carry, but the catches keep him in play, and the field will be on him … Drake London caught all five of his targets for 68 yards. He has a 27.1% projected target share and gets 35.9% of Atlanta's air yards at $6,600. Kansas City played man on 35.8% of snaps last season, and wideouts get more of the targets against man … Kyle Pitts ($3,800) has a 15.9% projected target share, and Kansas City has given up the sixth-most DraftKings points to tight ends, 16.95 a game over eight games.

Model Prediction: KC 27, ATL 19. An 8.1-point margin against a market spread of 3.5.

MIA @ IND

Team Totals: MIA 17.7, IND 21.6

Daniel Jones threw 34 times in Week 9 and completed 20 for 180 yards, a touchdown and a pick. He should throw 30 or 31 times at $4,900. This is the slowest game on the slate, about three plays under average, and Miami runs the fewest plays per game in the league. The Colts are without two receivers who drew 14 of Jones's 34 throws in Week 9, and one of them, Josh Downs, is now in the Kansas City pool … Jonathan Taylor ran 13 times for 46 yards and caught all five targets for 18 yards. He should get about 16 carries and four targets at $7,800, and that's a lot of money in a game this slow … Tyler Warren caught four of seven for 44 yards. He has a 23.1% projected target share at $4,400, and Miami has given up the fourth-most DraftKings points to tight ends, 17.81 a game over eight games. With the receiver room thin, he's our favorite cheap tight end on the slate … Laquon Treadwell ($3,000) should see about four targets, and Will Mallory ($2,500) about the same.

Kyle McCord is in line to start for Miami. He's $4,000 with about 27 throws coming, but only Arizona has a lower team total than Miami … Ollie Gordon II ran 16 times for 55 yards and caught one pass in Week 9. He should get about 13 carries at $5,800 with almost no targets. With that team total, he's a touchdown dart and nothing more … Caleb Douglas caught six of eight for 70 yards and has a 15.5% projected target share at $4,400. Malik Washington ($4,700) is at 16.1% … Greg Dulcich ($3,300) should see about four targets at tight end.

Model Prediction: IND 21, MIA 16

MIN @ GB

Team Totals: MIN 19.9, GB 23.0

Jordan Love went 23 of 29 for 372 yards and three touchdowns in Week 9 and ran in a 13-yard score. He should throw about 35 times at $6,500. Minnesota brings the top pass rush in our ranks, though, with 35.5% pressure and Dallas Turner at 27 pressures, and the Vikings D/ST has a path even against a line ranked fourth. Expect about an average number of plays, and Packers games have averaged 131 plays over their last three … Green Bay's lead back is out, and the work is split. Kaleb Johnson ran 14 times for 68 yards and a score in Week 9 and should get seven or eight carries at $4,600 with almost no targets. Pierre Strong ($4,300) should get five or six carries and three or four targets. Minnesota played zone on 81.7% of snaps last season, higher than any defense on this slate, and backs catch more passes against zone. MarShawn Lloyd missed Week 9 with a knee injury and is questionable. The Packers have the 31st-ranked run blocking line, so we'd only take Strong, and only as a cheap flex … Matthew Golden caught all 10 of his targets for 164 yards and a score. He has a 24.8% projected target share at $7,300 and 181 unrealized air yards over three weeks, week by week below … Christian Watson ($7,700) caught seven of eight for 171 yards and a touchdown and has a 20.6% projected target share … Tucker Kraft ($5,000) caught one of three for one yard, and Minnesota has given up the fewest DraftKings points to tight ends, 9.29 a game over eight games. Pass.

Kirk Cousins came over from Las Vegas in a trade Tuesday, and the books have him as Minnesota's starter. Carson Wentz went 8 of 25 for 81 yards and two picks in Week 9. Cousins should throw about 31 times at $5,300, behind a line ranked 28th that gives up a sack on 9.3% of dropbacks, so the Packers D/ST is in play … Justin Jefferson caught three of 11 for 58 yards. He has a 25.2% projected target share at $6,800, and Green Bay has given up the sixth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers, 36.74 a game over nine games … Jordan Addison ($4,800) has a 16.4% projected target share and T.J. Hockenson ($4,300) 17.5% … Jordan Mason ($5,300) should get about 11 carries and Aaron Jones ($5,600) about nine. Skip both.

Model Prediction: GB 25, MIN 18

CAR @ NO

Team Totals: CAR 22.7, NO 24.9

Tyler Shough went 21 of 35 for 265 yards and a touchdown in Week 9 and ran 10 times for 51 yards. He should throw about 37 times and run about five at $5,600, and he's underpriced. Carolina's rush ranks 31st against a Saints line ranked 14th, so leave the Panthers D/ST on the bench. This game projects for about 128 plays, the most on the slate. New Orleans is second in neutral pace and Carolina is fourth … Alvin Kamara ran six times for 32 yards and caught three of four. He should get six carries and four targets at $5,000, and Carolina has given up the second-most DraftKings points to backs, 28.68 a game over eight games. Audric Estimé ($4,500) ran 15 times for 72 yards and a score and should get about nine carries … Chris Olave caught seven of 12 for 98 yards. He has a 22.4% projected target share and gets 47.0% of the Saints' air yards at $7,000, with 164 unrealized air yards, more below … Devaughn Vele ($4,900) caught two of four for 17 yards.

Bryce Young went 28 of 39 for 276 yards, three touchdowns and a pick in Week 9. He should throw about 36 times at $5,800, and Carolina throws 4.8 points more than expected in neutral spots. The problem is the rush he faces: Chase Young has eight sacks and Carl Granderson 7.5, Carolina's line is 24th, and the Saints D/ST belongs in your player pool … Chuba Hubbard ran 16 times for 79 yards and caught four of five. He should get about 17 carries and four or five targets at $7,200, and New Orleans has given up the most DraftKings points to running backs in the league, 30.13 a game over eight games. He's an RB1 in this spot … Tetairoa McMillan caught four of six for 56 yards and a score. He has a 22.8% projected target share at $6,700 … Jalen Coker ($5,700) has 17.3% … Darren Waller ($3,600) caught eight of 10 for 90 yards and a touchdown, and DraftKings didn't raise his price to match.

Model Prediction: NO 25, CAR 23

BUF @ NYJ

Team Totals: BUF 28.0, NYJ 21.5

Josh Allen went 21 of 31 for 234 yards, a touchdown and a pick in Week 9 and ran six times for 15 yards. He should run about seven times, but at $7,500 he's the most expensive quarterback on the slate and he doesn't score enough for that price. Expect a normal play count, maybe one snap more … James Cook ran 31 times for 107 yards and a score in Week 9 and saw one target. He should get 20 or 21 carries at $7,400, tops on the slate, behind the second-best run blocking line in our ranks against a Jets run defense ranked 29th. He'll be popular, and he'll only see about two targets, so he needs the score … No Buffalo pass catcher is above a 16% projected target share. Khalil Shakir ($5,300) caught all four of his targets for 58 yards, DJ Moore ($5,800) is at 14.7% and Dalton Kincaid ($5,100) is at 14.2% … Gregory Rousseau has 31 pressures, and the Jets line is 30th, so the Bills D/ST is in play.

Geno Smith threw for 165 yards on 32 attempts in Week 9 without a touchdown. He should throw about 32 times at $4,800, and he's cheap for a quarterback in a game with a total near 50 … Breece Hall ran 15 times for 61 yards and caught three of four. He should get about 13 carries and two or three targets at $5,900 … Garrett Wilson missed Week 9 with a concussion and is questionable. Omar Cooper Jr. ($5,400) caught eight of 11 for 58 yards without him … Adonai Mitchell ($4,900) caught none of his seven targets in Week 9, and no receiver on the slate has a bigger gap than his 221 unrealized air yards, more below … Kenyon Sadiq ($2,800) caught all four of his targets for 49 yards.

Model Prediction: BUF 32, NYJ 18. A 14.2-point margin against a market spread of 7.5.

HOU @ CLE

Team Totals: HOU 22.1, CLE 18.1

C.J. Stroud carved up the Chargers in Week 9: 21 of 35, 384 yards, five touchdowns and a pick. He should throw about 34 times at $5,900. The total is under 41, but the game projects above an average play count, and Browns games have averaged about 130 plays over their last three … David Montgomery has missed two straight games with a groin injury and is questionable. Woody Marks ran 18 times for 70 yards and should get about 11 carries at $5,700, more if Montgomery sits. Houston's run blocking ranks 28th, so Marks is a thin play … Nico Collins caught all four of his targets for 55 yards and a score. He has a 16.6% projected target share at $6,900, and that's too much money for that share. Cleveland played man on 40.8% of snaps last season, the highest man rate on this slate, and that helps Collins some … Tank Dell ($3,900) caught four of nine for 105 yards and a score, and Kayshon Boutte ($3,800) caught four of five for 125 yards and two scores … Dalton Schultz ($3,400) has a 13.4% projected target share … Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter get a Browns line that ranks last in pass protection, and we'd play the Texans D/ST over every other defense.

Deshaun Watson is questionable with a concussion, and he didn't play in Week 9. Shedeur Sanders went 19 of 31 for 297 yards and two touchdowns and ran 10 times in his place. The books price Watson as the starter, so he's the one to follow at $5,100, with Sanders ($4,600) if he sits. Either way, we're staying off this passing game behind that line … Quinshon Judkins ran 15 times for 43 yards. He should get about 13 carries at $5,500, and Dylan Sampson ($5,000) caught three of six … Denzel Boston caught six of seven for 98 yards. He has a 19.1% projected target share and gets 43.9% of Cleveland's air yards at $5,200 … KC Concepcion ($4,800) caught four of six for 85 yards and a score … Harold Fannin Jr. ($4,900) has a 17.1% projected target share.

Model Prediction: HOU 22, CLE 16

JAX @ TEN

Team Totals: JAX 27.5, TEN 18.8

Trevor Lawrence went 16 of 26 for 242 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. He should throw about 30 times at $6,600. Tennessee has given up the most DraftKings points to wide receivers in the league, 42.54 a game over eight games. Expect about one play fewer than average, because Jacksonville is 30th in neutral pace even though Tennessee is first … Parker Washington caught two of seven for 61 yards and a score. He has a 21.5% projected target share at $6,200, and he's the receiver we want from this game … Jakobi Meyers ($4,200) caught four of six for 65 yards … Travis Hunter ($3,100) should see four or five targets … Brenton Strange ($4,100) has a 14.4% projected target share … Bhayshul Tuten ran 12 times for 29 yards and a score. He should get about 16 carries at $6,600, but only two targets, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($5,100) also scored in Week 9.

Cam Ward went 26 of 40 for 304 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8 and ran seven times for 41 yards before the bye. He should throw 31 or 32 times at $4,800, and that price undersells him … Tony Pollard ran for 117 yards and two scores on 21 carries in Week 8. Expect about 15 carries at $6,000 this time, but Jacksonville's run defense is fifth in our ranks … Carnell Tate missed Week 8 with a shoulder injury and is questionable. He has a 20.4% projected target share at $5,200 if he plays. Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,500) caught six of seven for 57 yards and a score and moves up if Tate sits … Gunnar Helm ($3,000) caught five of nine for 76 yards.

A blowout changes both backfields here. If Jacksonville gets out in front, Tuten's carries climb and Ward throws plenty, but the slow Jaguars pace caps the play count. This is the game most likely to come up short of its total.

Model Prediction: JAX 33, TEN 14. A 19.0-point margin against a market spread of 10.5.

Afternoon Window, 4:05 PM ET

LA @ ARI

Team Totals: LA 24.8, ARI 16.5

Matthew Stafford went 26 of 43 for 228 yards, a touchdown and a pick in Week 9. He should throw about 33 times at $6,200, and Arizona has given up the third-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks, 21.26 a game over nine games. His line ranks first in pass protection. Don't let the total in the low 40s fool you. Expect three or four plays above average, since only one team runs more plays per game than Arizona and the Rams are fourth … The Rams receiver who caught 14 of 19 targets in Week 9 isn't in the DraftKings pool this week, so cheap targets open up. Tutu Atwell ($3,700) and Konata Mumpfield ($4,000) should each see about five, and Colby Parkinson ($3,000) should see five or six at tight end. We like Atwell the most of the three … Kyren Williams ran 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four. He should get about 15 carries and three or four targets at $7,100, with the Rams' line first in run blocking. Blake Corum ($5,100) ran 11 times for 58 yards and a score and should get about 10 carries.

Carson Beck is in line to start for Arizona at $4,200. He should throw about 32 times, and he's the best quarterback value this week, but no team on the slate has a lower team total than Arizona's 16.5 … Tyler Allgeier ran 17 times for 46 yards and caught two of three. He should get about 11 carries at $5,200 with fewer than three targets. Arizona's run blocking is 25th against a Rams run defense ranked seventh, so he's a touchdown dart. Bam Knight missed Week 9 with a concussion and is questionable … Trey McBride caught seven of eight for 54 yards. His 32.5% projected target share is the biggest on the slate at $7,100 … Reggie Virgil ($3,400) caught one of four in Week 9 and should see about six targets.

Model Prediction: LA 26, ARI 14

SEA @ LV

Team Totals: SEA 23.4, LV 17.9

Drew Lock is questionable with an oblique injury. He went 19 of 28 for 175 yards and a touchdown in Week 9, and the books haven't pulled his lines. He should throw about 29 times at $5,000, and Las Vegas has given up the second-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks, 21.96 a game over nine games. Jalen Milroe ($4,000) is next if Lock sits. Expect about an average number of plays … Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught seven of 10 for 51 yards. He has a 30.4% projected target share and gets 54.1% of Seattle's air yards at $9,300, the priciest receiver on the slate. Rashid Shaheed missed Week 9 with a knee injury and is questionable … Zach Charbonnet ran 16 times for 77 yards, and about 14 carries at $5,600 is the most of the three backs. Jadarian Price ($5,100) ran nine times and caught all four targets for 54 yards. Las Vegas has given up the third-most DraftKings points to backs, 27.24 a game over nine games. Emanuel Wilson ($4,100) hasn't touched the ball in two weeks, so we're ignoring his cheap price.

Fernando Mendoza is in line to take over at quarterback for Las Vegas after the Cousins trade. He's $4,600 and should throw 29 or 30 times … Las Vegas sits last in our run blocking ranks and meets the top run defense in them. Ashton Jeanty ran six times for 25 yards and caught five of seven in Week 9. He should get about 10 carries and four targets at $5,400, and the catches are the reason to play him … Brock Bowers caught seven of eight for 111 yards and a score. He has a 22.3% projected target share at $7,600, and no tight end costs more … Seattle has given up the fewest DraftKings points to wide receivers, 23.50 a game over nine games, so Tre Tucker ($5,100) is a pass.

Model Prediction: SEA 25, LV 15

Late Window, 4:25 PM ET

SF @ DAL

Team Totals: SF 28.7, DAL 25.6

This is the game to build around. The total is 54.3, and San Francisco's 28.7 is the top team total on the slate. Brock Purdy went 17 of 25 for 232 yards, two touchdowns and a pick in Week 9 and ran seven times for 40 yards and a score. He should throw about 33 times and run four or five at $7,000. San Francisco's line ranks second in pass protection, and Dallas brings a rush ranked 22nd, so fade the Cowboys D/ST. The game projects above an average play count, and Dallas games have averaged 134 plays over their last three … Christian McCaffrey ran 18 times for 68 yards and a score and caught two of three for 19 yards and another. He should get about 15 carries and five targets at $8,500, and Dallas has given up the fourth-most DraftKings points to backs, 27.13 a game over nine games. Dallas played zone on 75.0% of snaps last season, and zone pushes targets to backs. He'll be popular, and we're on him as well … George Kittle caught four of seven for 58 yards and has a 17.8% projected target share at $6,500 … Mike Evans has missed the last two games with an Achilles injury and is questionable, and Deebo Samuel Sr. missed Week 9 with a hamstring injury and is questionable. Jordan Watkins ($3,800) caught all four of his targets for 86 yards and a score.

Dak Prescott went 21 of 34 for 335 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9. He should throw about 37 times at $6,400, and no quarterback on the slate should throw more, behind a line ranked seventh against a 49ers rush ranked 30th. That's a lot of clean dropbacks, and the 49ers D/ST is a fade … CeeDee Lamb caught 10 of 16 for 195 yards and a score. He has a 31.7% projected target share at $8,800, and the field will be all over him. George Pickens missed Week 9 with a hamstring injury and is questionable, and Lamb's share only climbs if Pickens sits … Javonte Williams ran 20 times for 101 yards and a score and caught four of five. He should get about 18 carries and three targets at $7,500. He's an RB2 with a touchdown path in the highest-total game on the slate … Ryan Flournoy ($5,300) caught two of three for 53 yards.

Model Prediction: SF 30, DAL 25

Pace numbers for every game: NFL pace of play. Pass rates for every team: NFL pass rate over expectation.

Unrealized Air Yards

Take the air yards on every ball thrown at a receiver, subtract the yards he caught, and you get unrealized air yards. When the targets keep coming, receivers tend to close a big gap.

Adonai Mitchell, Jets: 221 yards of gap. Week 7: three targets, 15 air yards, 0 receiving yards. Week 8: nine targets, 222 air yards, 142 receiving yards. Week 9: seven targets, 126 air yards, 0 receiving yards. The whole gap is Week 9, and seven of those looks came with Garrett Wilson out, so his price only makes sense if Wilson sits again.

Matthew Golden, Packers: 181 yards of gap. Week 7: 12 targets, 165 air yards, 44 receiving yards. Week 8: 13 targets, 183 air yards, 79 receiving yards. Week 9: 10 targets, 120 air yards, 164 receiving yards. He cashed in last week, but 35 targets in three games says the volume is real and the gap from Weeks 7 and 8 still has room to close.

Chris Olave, Saints: 164 yards of gap. Week 7: 10 targets, 89 air yards, 56 receiving yards. Week 9: 12 targets, 229 air yards, 98 receiving yards. The Saints had a bye in Week 8. He's getting double-digit targets every game in the fastest matchup on the slate.

Tools used for this slate

Every number in this breakdown comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.