Eleven games make up Sunday's DraftKings main slate for October 11, with the London game left off. This is a Wednesday draft, so treat each designation below as a midweek read that can change before kickoff.
High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams, CHI QB | Out | 10 | Tyson Bagent ($4,700) threw all 34 Week 4 passes. Luther Burden III (22.1% share) |
| Marcus Mariota, WAS QB | Doubtful (knee, MCL) | 10 | Athan Kaliakmanis threw 33 of 37 Week 4 passes. Jayden Daniels ($6,000) if cleared |
| Jayden Daniels, WAS QB | Questionable (elbow) | 9 | Kaliakmanis ($4,500) if he sits. Stefon Diggs (19.9% share) |
| Breece Hall, NYJ RB | Doubtful (quadriceps) | 9 | Braelon Allen ($5,400), 13.0 projected carries. Isaiah Davis ($4,200) |
| Justin Jefferson, MIN WR | Questionable (ankle) | 8 | T.J. Hockenson (13 Week 4 targets), Jordan Addison ($5,800) |
| Kyle Monangai, CHI RB | Questionable (thumb) | 8 | D'Andre Swift ($6,200), Roschon Johnson ($4,200) |
| Adonai Mitchell, NYJ WR | Doubtful (finger) | 8 | Garrett Wilson (30.1% share) |
| Tee Higgins, CIN WR | Questionable (groin) | 7 | Dohnte Meyers ($3,500), nine Week 4 targets |
| Jeremiyah Love, ARI RB | Questionable (ankle) | 7 | Tyler Allgeier ($5,100), Bam Knight ($4,000) |
| Terry McLaurin, WAS WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 7 | Diggs ($5,500), Antonio Williams (eight Week 4 targets) |
| Keenan Allen, IND WR | Questionable (groin) | 7 | Josh Downs (20.9% share), Tyler Warren ($5,000) |
| Ja'Marr Chase, CIN WR | Questionable (concussion) | 6 | Higgins (16 Week 4 targets), Meyers ($3,500) |
| Mack Hollins, NE WR | Questionable (calf) | 6 | Romeo Doubs ($5,000), two Week 4 scores |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Mismatches
| Pass rush | DL rank | Offensive line | OL rank | Line injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 4 | LA Chargers | 31 | None |
| New Orleans | 11 | Minnesota | 32 | G Donovan Jackson (IR) |
| Minnesota | 1 | New Orleans | 15 | None |
| Cleveland | 6 | NY Jets | 30 | None |
| Cincinnati | 7 | Miami | 27 | None |
| NY Giants | 32 | Washington | 12 | Rusher Brian Burns (IR) |
| San Francisco | 31 | Seattle | 13 | None |
| Miami | 26 | Cincinnati | 6 | None |
Zach Allen leads a Denver front, fourth in our DL ranks, with 13 pressures, and he gets a Chargers line ranked 31st that has allowed pressure on 32.6% of dropbacks. Denver's D/ST is live, and Justin Herbert's pocket is the one we trust least on the slate.
The Saints sit 11th up front, but Minnesota's line ranks dead last and is down left guard Donovan Jackson. The Vikings have taken a sack on 10.6% of dropbacks. New Orleans D/ST is in play, and Kyler Murray carries real sack risk.
The other direction in the same game: the Vikings front ranks first, with Dallas Turner at 22 pressures and a 39.5% team pressure rate, against a Saints line ranked 15th. Minnesota's defense is a strong D/ST option, and Tyler Shough will be throwing hot.
Mason Graham leads a Cleveland front ranked sixth into a game against the Jets line, 30th, which has allowed a sack on 9.3% of dropbacks. The Browns D/ST is in play, and Geno Smith will be under pressure.
Jonathan Allen and Dexter Lawrence have eight pressures apiece for a Cincinnati front ranked seventh, and Miami's line, 27th, has allowed a 30.7% pressure rate. The Bengals are a seven-point road favorite, which makes their D/ST a sensible way to play the game script.
The Giants rush ranks last, Brian Burns is on IR, and New York pressures 14.4% of dropbacks. Washington's line ranks 12th, so whoever starts there should have time. Leave the Giants D/ST alone.
San Francisco's front ranks 31st and sacks quarterbacks on 4.0% of dropbacks, which gives Sam Darnold and a Seattle line ranked 13th an easy afternoon. We're not paying for the 49ers D/ST.
Joe Burrow gets the same help. Cincinnati's line ranks sixth, Miami's rush ranks 26th, and the Dolphins have a 3.4% sack rate. Skip their D/ST. Full board: NFL OL vs DL matchups.
Early Window, 1:00 PM ET
CHI @ GB
Team Totals: CHI 23.8, GB 22.3
Tyson Bagent's Week 4 line was 268 yards and zero scores, and he gets 30.2 here at $4,700 with Caleb Williams out. Chicago's line, eighth, has the edge on a Packers rush that lost Edgerrin Cooper … Luther Burden III draws a 22.1% share at $4,900, a top-four receiver value on the board. The Packers were a zone team on 80.5% of snaps last season, second-most of any defense on this slate, and Burden's slot routes live against zone … Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards and two scores in Week 4, but he's questionable with a thumb. D'Andre Swift takes the job if he sits.
Jordan Love threw two touchdowns on 30 attempts in Week 4 and projects for 30.5 at $5,700. Matthew Golden carries a 22.6% share and 40.6% of the air yards at $5,700, and he leads the closing block with 189 unrealized air yards … Christian Watson has four touchdowns in four games and costs $6,400 … Josh Jacobs is out, and MarShawn Lloyd (10.3 carries) and Kaleb Johnson (6.7) split the work. Lloyd caught all five Week 4 targets, so he's the one with a receiving floor.
Model Prediction: GB 24, CHI 21. We have Green Bay winning a game the market lines the other way.
CIN @ MIA
Team Totals: CIN 25.7, MIA 18.6
Miami has averaged 52.5 offensive plays, and Dolphins games have run 109.8 combined plays, slow enough to cap everyone here. Joe Burrow threw 54 times for 428 yards in Week 4, and Cincinnati throws more than any team on the slate in neutral script, 8.0 points above expected (NFL pass rate over expectation). He gets 33.0 attempts at $6,900. Both receivers are questionable, Ja'Marr Chase with a concussion and Tee Higgins with a groin, after Higgins went 11-157 on 16 targets … Chase Brown gets 19.0 carries, third-most on the slate, and caught all 11 targets in Week 4. Last season the Dolphins sat in zone 72.5% of the time, which tends to leave a back's short outlet open.
No quarterback beats his price by more than Malik Willis at $4,600 on the strength of 6.0 projected carries, but he threw 17 passes in Week 4. De'Von Achane is on IR, so Ollie Gordon II gets the backfield at 8.5 carries and 2.6 targets. On the second-smallest team total, he needs a touchdown … Malik Washington ($4,600) caught all five Week 4 targets for 67 yards.
Model Prediction: CIN 26, MIA 17
CLE @ NYJ
Team Totals: CLE 19.8, NYJ 21.5
Geno Smith threw 15 passes in a 32-play Week 4, and he projects for 29.2 at $5,000 behind a line that has allowed a 9.3% sack rate. Garrett Wilson's 30.1% projected share is second on the slate, and with Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor doubtful, nobody else here earns targets … Breece Hall is doubtful with a quad, which hands Braelon Allen ($5,400) 13.0 carries after his 14-59 Week 4. Isaiah Davis takes 7.8, so it's Allen's backfield with a committee tax … Kenyon Sadiq ($3,800) was blanked on four Week 4 targets and projects for 5.4 anyway.
Deshaun Watson threw for 268 yards in Week 4 and carries 4.7 projected rushes at $5,100. KC Concepcion beats his $4,200 price by more than any receiver on the board, on 6.7 targets and a 21.4% share. The Jets played man 40.1% of the time last season, which tilts the target tree toward wideouts … Denzel Boston owns 49.5% of Cleveland's projected air yards at $5,200 … Harold Fannin Jr. has three touchdowns and 6.0 targets projected … Quinshon Judkins gets 15.4 carries and 3.4 targets on the third-smallest total. With that little receiving work on a total this low, he's a GPP touchdown bet.
Model Prediction: NYJ 21, CLE 19
HOU @ TEN
Team Totals: HOU 22.5, TEN 16.6
Nothing on the board has a lower total than this one at 39.2. The Titans snap it faster in neutral script than their reputation suggests. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two scores on 31 attempts in Week 4. Nico Collins returned to the box score with 7-118 and two touchdowns and costs $7,500 for a 21.9% share. Xavier Hutchinson ranks second on the slate with 170 unrealized air yards, but he drew most of those targets in weeks when Collins had no stat line, so we're passing … David Montgomery projects for 15.1 carries but has run for 57 yards across Weeks 3 and 4, and Woody Marks has scored twice. Houston's front, second in our DL ranks, gets a Titans line ranked 26th and down guard Fernando Carmona.
Cam Ward threw for 222 yards in Week 4. Carnell Tate went 9-145 on 12 targets and beats his $5,300 price by more than any receiver but one. Houston was two-high on 43.2% of 2025 snaps, which takes away the deep shots his 47.5% air-yards share depends on … Tony Pollard's 14.5 carries come with 2.3 targets for the offense with the slate's lowest implied total. Fade … Gunnar Helm ($2,800) is the second-best tight end value.
Model Prediction: HOU 22, TEN 16
IND @ PIT
Team Totals: IND 21.2, PIT 23.6
Aaron Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three scores in Week 4 and gets 32.5 projected attempts at $5,300. Jaylen Warren has run for 220 yards across Weeks 3 and 4 and gets 14.8 carries plus 3.5 targets at $6,700. Rico Dowdle is questionable with a toe … DK Metcalf turned nine Week 4 targets into 5-115 and draws 32.0% of the air yards at $5,400.
Daniel Jones managed 143 yards last week. Jonathan Taylor projects for 20.6 carries, second-most on the slate, and has six touchdowns in four games, but 3.1 targets leaves him needing rushing production at $7,800 … Josh Downs costs $6,000 for a 20.9% share. The Steelers ran zone on 64.8% of 2025 snaps, and Downs makes his living in the soft spots between those zones … Tyler Warren ($5,000) gets 6.5 targets.
Model Prediction: PIT 24, IND 21
LV @ NE
Team Totals: LV 19.9, NE 24.1
Drake Maye threw three touchdowns and ran for 54 yards in Week 4, and he gets 5.3 projected carries at $6,300. Maxx Crosby has 18 pressures, and the Raiders front, ninth, draws a Patriots line ranked 24th … TreVeyon Henderson (11.9 carries) and Rhamondre Stevenson (9.6 carries, 3.0 targets) split the backfield, so take Stevenson for the receiving work … Romeo Doubs scored twice in Week 4 and costs $5,000. Mack Hollins is questionable with a calf.
Kirk Cousins threw 52 times for 365 yards in Week 4. Ashton Jeanty gets 16.7 carries and 4.4 targets at $7,200, and he caught six balls for 68 yards last week. The Patriots' 2025 zone rate of 69.4% leaves his checkdowns alone … Brock Bowers holds a 26.1% share at $7,000, second among tight ends, after 24 targets in two games … Michael Mayer went 8-82 on 10 targets in Week 4 and costs $3,500.
Model Prediction: NE 28, LV 17. That's a 10.5-point win where the market has New England by 3.5.
MIN @ NO
Team Totals: MIN 22.0, NO 21.1
New Orleans plays faster than anyone in neutral script at 30.0 seconds per snap, and Saints games have averaged 134 plays (NFL pace of play). Kyler Murray threw 37 times without a touchdown in Week 4, behind the worst line on the slate. Justin Jefferson has an ankle designation. T.J. Hockenson caught all 13 Week 4 targets for 119 yards and projects for a 20.4% share at $4,800 … Aaron Jones ran 20 times for 94 yards in Week 4 and gets 12.2 carries plus 4.1 targets at $6,500.
Tyler Shough threw 48 times in Week 4, and his 34.3 projected attempts rank third on the slate. Chris Olave has 35 targets over the last three weeks and owns 44.0% of the air yards at $7,700. Minnesota showed two deep safeties on 59.3% of 2025 snaps, tops among these defenses, so his catches come underneath … Travis Etienne is on IR, and Alvin Kamara caught five balls and scored twice in Week 4. He's a pass-game back at 4.5 targets for $5,400.
Model Prediction: MIN 21, NO 20
NYG @ WAS
Team Totals: NYG 20.2, WAS 23.3
Washington's quarterback job is open this week. Jayden Daniels is questionable with an elbow and last played in Week 2, Marcus Mariota is doubtful, and Athan Kaliakmanis threw 33 of 37 passes in Week 4. If Daniels plays, his 7.0 projected carries lead every quarterback on the slate. Whoever it is gets a clean pocket against a Giants rush ranked last … Stefon Diggs has 31 targets and three touchdowns. New York's 39.9% man rate last season is a lean toward Diggs' volume … Jacory Croskey-Merritt gets 11.3 carries with Rachaad White questionable.
Jameis Winston threw three touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 4 and costs $4,800. Isaiah Likely beats his $4,300 price by more than any tight end, on 7.8 targets and a 25.3% share … Malik Nabers scored and went 6-112 in Week 4 at $6,300 … Cam Skattebo gets 14.5 carries but has run for 118 yards across Weeks 3 and 4.
Model Prediction: WAS 23, NYG 21
Afternoon Window, 4:05 PM ET
DEN @ LAC
Team Totals: DEN 22.8, LAC 20.5
Both offenses have played faster than this total implies, with Broncos games at 126.7 plays over the last three. Bo Nix threw 42 times in Week 4 and projects for 31.9 at $5,600. RJ Harvey caught all 10 Week 4 targets and is the second-best back value at $5,200, with 5.8 projected targets. Los Angeles was a 77.7% zone team last year, which protects those checkdowns. J.K. Dobbins handles first and second down at 11.9 carries … Jaylen Waddle ($6,100) projects for a 19.8% share with Pat Bryant doubtful … Courtland Sutton caught one ball for 4 yards on six Week 4 targets and lands in the closing block.
Justin Herbert is the second-best quarterback value at $5,100, but Denver's rush is the worst matchup any line on the slate draws, and Los Angeles throws 9.7 points below expected in neutral script. Omarion Hampton gets 15.0 carries and 1.7 targets, so Keaton Mitchell ($4,500) is the better pass-game piece after five Week 4 catches.
Model Prediction: LAC 23, DEN 19. We have the Chargers winning, and the market lines Denver as the favorite.
Late Window, 4:25 PM ET
DET @ ARI
Team Totals: DET 29.3, ARI 23.8
Nothing tops this game's 53.1 total, Detroit's 29.3 leads all teams, and no game projects for more plays. Jared Goff threw for 412 yards in Week 4 and gets 34.3 attempts. Jahmyr Gibbs has seven touchdowns in four games and projects for 22.3 carries, the most on the slate, plus 5.7 targets. His $9,800 salary tops the board … Amon-Ra St. Brown's 10.0 projected targets lead the slate, and he has five scores … Sam LaPorta went 8-84 with a touchdown on 13 targets … Detroit's front, eighth, gets an Arizona line missing Paris Johnson.
Jacoby Brissett's 34.5 projected attempts lead all quarterbacks, and he threw three interceptions in Week 4. Trey McBride leads all tight ends at 10.3 targets and a 28.7% share … Michael Wilson has 30 targets across Weeks 3 and 4 and owns 46.1% of the air yards at $6,200. The Lions played man on 40.8% of snaps last year, which funnels targets to wideouts. Find him again below … Jeremiyah Love carries an ankle tag, and Tyler Allgeier picks up the carries if he sits.
Model Prediction: DET 32, ARI 22. We have the Lions by 10.4, almost double the market's 5.5.
SF @ SEA
Team Totals: SF 21.9, SEA 24.6
Sam Darnold threw two touchdowns on 22 attempts in Week 4 and projects for 30.2 at $5,800, behind a line facing a 49ers rush ranked 31st. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has six scores on 42 targets, and his 31.2% share leads the slate at $8,800 … With Jadarian Price on IR and Zach Charbonnet out, Emanuel Wilson beats his $5,300 price by more than any back on the board. He ran 21 times for 81 yards and two scores in Week 4, and he gets 15.9 carries plus 3.9 targets.
Brock Purdy ran 10 times in Week 4 and projects for 31.1 attempts at $6,500. Christian McCaffrey's 7.0 projected targets lead all backs, and he has four touchdowns … George Kittle has scored four times in four games at $5,200 … Mike Evans gets a 21.5% share at $6,500. Seattle played two-high on 53.7% of snaps last year, second on this slate, which caps his deep routes. Seattle is one of the slower offenses in neutral script at 36.6 seconds per snap.
Model Prediction: SEA 26, SF 22
Unrealized Air Yards
The gap below is simple: add up how far downfield each pass to a receiver traveled, then subtract what he caught. A big number on real volume usually closes.
Matthew Golden, Packers: 189 yards of gap. Week 2: six targets, 80 air yards, 58 receiving yards. Week 3: 12 targets, 199 air yards, 100 receiving yards. Week 4: seven targets, 89 air yards, 21 receiving yards. He came up short of his air yards in all three games, Jayden Reed is on IR, and Golden costs $700 less than Watson.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos: 137 yards of gap. Week 2: four targets, 31 air yards, 25 receiving yards. Week 3: seven targets, 83 air yards, 46 receiving yards. Week 4: six targets, 98 air yards, 4 receiving yards. Most of it came last week, so this is the weakest of the three, but he has 13 targets over the last two games, projects for 37.6% of the air yards with Bryant doubtful, and he costs $4,600.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals: 133 yards of gap. Week 2: seven targets, 50 air yards, 18 receiving yards. Week 3: 17 targets, 162 air yards, 89 receiving yards. Week 4: 13 targets, 123 air yards, 95 receiving yards. The volume is the case here: 37 targets in three weeks and the biggest game total on the slate.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this breakdown comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.