Sunday's DraftKings main slate has ten games, with the Houston and Jacksonville game in London left off. It's only Wednesday, so a lot of the injury news below will change before kickoff.
High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield, TB QB | Out | 10 | Jalon Daniels ($4,800) threw all 52 passes in Weeks 4 and 5 |
| Lamar Jackson, BAL QB | Questionable (ankle) | 9 | Tyler Huntley ($4,700) threw all 32 Week 5 passes |
| Caleb Williams, CHI QB | Questionable (hamstring) | 9 | Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum ($4,200) split Week 5, 21 and 19 attempts |
| Michael Penix Jr., ATL QB | Questionable (ribs) | 9 | Tua Tagovailoa ($4,500), three Week 5 attempts |
| DeVonta Smith, PHI WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 8 | Dontayvion Wicks (eight Week 5 targets), Makai Lemon ($4,100) |
| Breece Hall, NYJ RB | Questionable (quadriceps) | 8 | Braelon Allen ($5,700), 24 Week 5 carries |
| Quinshon Judkins, CLE RB | Questionable (foot) | 8 | Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,900) |
| Kyle Monangai, CHI RB | Questionable (toe) | 8 | D'Andre Swift ($6,700), Roschon Johnson (seven Week 5 targets) |
| Rashee Rice, KC WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 7 | Xavier Worthy ($4,600), Travis Kelce ($5,500) |
| Jalen Coker, CAR WR | Questionable (quadriceps) | 7 | Tetairoa McMillan (16 Week 4 targets) |
| Adonai Mitchell, NYJ WR | Questionable (finger) | 7 | Garrett Wilson (24.1% share) |
| KC Concepcion, CLE WR | Questionable (concussion) | 7 | Denzel Boston (44.7% of the air yards), Jerry Jeudy ($3,400) |
| TreVeyon Henderson, NE RB | Doubtful (ankle) | 7 | Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000), 15.6 projected carries |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Mismatches
| Pass rush | DL rank | Offensive line | OL rank | Line injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | 28 | LA Chargers | 32 | T Rashawn Slater (IR), T Joe Alt (out), OL Trevor Penning (IR) |
| Baltimore | 27 | Cleveland | 31 | None |
| Cleveland | 5 | Baltimore | 24 | None |
| New England | 20 | NY Jets | 30 | None |
| Arizona | 21 | LA Rams | 1 | None |
| Tampa Bay | 32 | Pittsburgh | 8 | None |
| Tennessee | 15 | Indianapolis | 5 | None |
The Chiefs pass rush isn't good, 28th in our ranks, but it gets the worst line in football this week. The Chargers are without both starting tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, plus Trevor Penning. George Karlaftis has 13 pressures, and Los Angeles gives up a sack on 10.6% of dropbacks. We like the Kansas City D/ST, and Justin Herbert could be running for his life.
Baltimore's rush is 27th, but Cleveland's line is 31st and lets quarterbacks get hit on 28.6% of dropbacks. Tavius Robinson leads the Ravens with eight pressures. The Ravens D/ST is playable, and Deshaun Watson will take some sacks.
Cleveland's front is fifth, Maliek Collins has seven pressures, Mason Graham has four sacks, and the Browns sack quarterbacks on 8.4% of dropbacks against a Ravens line ranked 24th. Cleveland's D/ST is a good cheap option, more so if Huntley starts again.
Elijah Ponder has 11 pressures and 4.5 sacks for New England, and the Jets line, 30th, gives up a sack on 9.8% of dropbacks. The Patriots are seven-point home favorites, so their D/ST fits the way this game should go.
The Rams have the best line in football and give up a sack on 3.1% of dropbacks. Arizona's rush is 21st. Matthew Stafford will have all day, and we're skipping the Cardinals D/ST.
Tampa Bay's rush is the worst in the league with a 3.5% sack rate, and Pittsburgh's line is eighth. Aaron Rodgers gets time. Fade the Bucs D/ST.
Indianapolis has the fifth-ranked line and a 4.9% sack rate against a Titans front ranked 15th. Leave the Tennessee D/ST alone. Full board: NFL OL vs DL matchups.
Early Window, 1:00 PM ET
BAL @ CLE
Team Totals: BAL 23.5, CLE 18.9
Lamar Jackson missed Week 5 with an ankle injury and is questionable again. Tyler Huntley filled in and went 24 of 32 for 201 yards and two scores. If Huntley ($4,700) starts, the Ravens lose the rushing floor that makes Lamar special … Derrick Henry has scored in three straight games, but he barely catches passes, 1.5 projected targets, so at $8,200 he needs a touchdown … Zay Flowers has 25 targets in three weeks and gets about a third of Baltimore's air yards at $7,100. Cleveland played man on 40.8% of snaps last season, and man coverage pushes targets to wideouts like him.
Deshaun Watson is the best quarterback value on the board at $4,900, and he runs enough, about five carries a game, to give him a floor. The problem is that Baltimore's rush gets a Browns line ranked 31st. Quinshon Judkins is questionable with a foot injury, but if he plays he's the best running back value on the slate at $5,500, with about 16 carries and four targets. Jaleel McLaughlin gets the work if Judkins sits … Denzel Boston gets almost half of Cleveland's air yards at $5,500, and he's in the closing block below.
The 42.5 total looks like a slog, but Browns games have averaged 130 plays over their last three.
Model Prediction: BAL 26, CLE 16. We have the Ravens by almost 10, and the market says 4.5.
CAR @ PHI
Team Totals: CAR 20.0, PHI 22.3
Jalen Hurts threw 40 times for 220 yards in Week 5, and at $6,100 he should run five or six times. DeVonta Smith is questionable with a hamstring. He projects for almost half of the Eagles' air yards. Dontayvion Wicks caught five of eight targets for 63 yards last week, and Makai Lemon is a good value at $4,100. Carolina played zone on 78.5% of snaps last season, and Lemon gets open underneath against zone … Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring and only had two carries in Week 4. Dameon Pierce ran 11 times for 14 yards in Week 5. We're staying away from this backfield.
Bryce Young threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4 before the bye, and he should throw about 32 times at $5,700. Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 balls for 192 yards and two scores that day on 16 targets, and he costs $7,300 … Chuba Hubbard ran 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. He should get 16 or 17 carries at $6,300.
No game on the slate projects for more extra plays than this one. Carolina plays second-fastest in neutral situations, and Panthers games have averaged 133 plays (NFL pace of play), which is a lot for a 42-point total.
Model Prediction: PHI 25, CAR 17. We have the Eagles by 8.6, and the market only has them by 1.5.
CHI @ ATL
Team Totals: CHI 25.7, ATL 23.1
Caleb Williams is questionable with a hamstring and hasn't played since Week 2. Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum split Week 5, 21 and 19 attempts, and threw three interceptions between them. Wait for Friday news before you trust any Bears quarterback … Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards in Week 4 but is questionable with a toe injury. D'Andre Swift ($6,700) scored last week on nine carries and five targets … Rome Odunze gets a third of Chicago's air yards at $4,900, and he's underpriced. Atlanta played zone on 67.3% of snaps last season, which leaves the seams open for him.
Michael Penix Jr. threw 32 of Atlanta's 35 passes in Week 5 and is questionable with a rib injury. Bijan Robinson ran for 339 yards and four touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4, then got seven targets in Week 5. At $8,700 he should get about 18 carries and five targets, and that receiving work gives him a high floor … Drake London has the highest projected target share on the slate, 28.5%, and 408 receiving yards in his last three games at $7,000.
Chicago runs more plays than any offense in football, 72 a game, and this one projects for 124.
Model Prediction: CHI 26, ATL 23
NO @ NYG
Team Totals: NO 22.8, NYG 22.1
Tyler Shough threw for only 96 yards and two picks in Week 5, one week after he threw 48 times. He should throw about 34 times at $5,600. Chris Olave has 31 targets in three weeks and gets almost half of the Saints' air yards at $7,600. The Giants played man on 39.9% of snaps last season, which helps a volume receiver like Olave … Take Alvin Kamara ($5,100) over Kendre Miller for the receiving work.
Jameis Winston ($5,100) threw 54 times in Week 5 for 326 yards and three touchdowns. Malik Nabers got 20 of those targets, and he costs $6,500 … Isaiah Likely caught 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards and two scores, and at $4,800 he's a strong tight end value with almost a quarter of the targets.
New Orleans plays faster than anyone in neutral situations, and the Giants play the slowest. This game still projects for 125 plays, second-most on the slate.
Model Prediction: NYG 25, NO 21. We have the Giants winning, and the market has New Orleans favored.
NYJ @ NE
Team Totals: NYJ 18.1, NE 25.3
Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns on 34 passes in Week 5, and he runs five or six times a game at $6,600. New England plays a bit faster than the Jets, but this game projects near the league average for plays … TreVeyon Henderson is doubtful with an ankle injury, so Rhamondre Stevenson should get about 16 carries and four targets. He's scored in each of the last two games, and only Judkins is a better running back value than Stevenson at $6,000 … Hunter Henry ($4,000) is the best tight end value on the board, with about seven targets … Romeo Doubs ($5,200) should get about 16% of the targets. The Jets played man on 40.1% of snaps last season, which pushes targets to the outside receivers. The Patriots rush, led by Elijah Ponder, also gets a Jets line ranked 30th.
Geno Smith went 17 of 30 for 182 yards in Week 5. Breece Hall is questionable with a quad and hasn't played since Week 3. Braelon Allen ran 24 times for 116 yards and a touchdown in his place last week, but with only two targets on the second-lowest team total, he's a touchdown-or-nothing play … Garrett Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a score, and he gets about 42% of the Jets' air yards at $6,800.
Model Prediction: NE 28, NYJ 16. We have the Patriots by 12.6, five points more than the market's 7.5.
PIT @ TB
Team Totals: PIT 21.4, TB 19.8
Aaron Rodgers has nine touchdown passes in his last three games and costs $5,500. No team on the slate throws more than expected in neutral situations than Pittsburgh, at 5.6 points (NFL pass rate over expectation), and Tampa Bay has the worst pass rush in the league … Jaylen Warren ran for 101 yards and caught all six of his targets for 87 more in Week 5, with two touchdowns. At $7,000 he should get about 16 carries and four targets, and Rico Dowdle is questionable with a toe injury … Germie Bernard caught six of nine targets for 80 yards last week and is underpriced at $4,000. The Bucs played zone on 70.7% of snaps last season, so his short routes should be open.
Baker Mayfield is out, and Jalon Daniels has thrown every pass for two weeks. He's also run 15 times for 78 yards in that time, and at $4,800 he should run six or seven times … Bucky Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 and should get about 16 carries at $6,200 … Emeka Egbuka ($5,200) gets 35.8% of the air yards … Cade Otton ($3,300) is the second-best tight end value after Henry.
This game has the lowest total on the slate and projects for the fewest plays, 119. Pittsburgh plays slow in neutral situations, which leaves less for the second and third pass catchers.
Model Prediction: TB 21, PIT 19. We have Tampa Bay winning, and the market has Pittsburgh favored.
TEN @ IND
Team Totals: TEN 19.4, IND 25.2
Daniel Jones threw 44 times for 267 yards in Week 5 and costs $5,200. He plays behind the fifth-ranked line. This game projects right at the league average for plays, and Tennessee is the faster team in neutral situations … Jonathan Taylor should get 21 carries, second-most on the slate, but only three targets at $8,000, and he ran for just 45 yards last week … Tyler Warren caught seven of nine targets for 83 yards and a score, and he costs $5,300 … Josh Downs ($5,800) gets 27.8% of the air yards. Tennessee played zone on 73.5% of snaps last season, and Downs is good at finding the holes in zone.
Cam Ward is the second-best quarterback value after Watson at $4,800. He threw for 170 yards in Week 5, and Tennessee throws 9.9 points less than expected in neutral situations. Carnell Tate gets almost half of the Titans' air yards at $5,000, and he's in the closing block … Tony Pollard should get about 15 carries but only two targets at $5,400.
Model Prediction: IND 25, TEN 19
Afternoon Window, 4:05 PM ET
ARI @ LA
Team Totals: ARI 19.0, LA 30.9
The Rams have the highest team total on the slate, and Matthew Stafford should throw more than any quarterback, about 35 times, after he went 40 of 54 for 383 yards and three scores in Week 5. He costs $6,400 and has the best line in football in front of him … Puka Nacua caught 17 of 24 targets last week and costs $8,100 for 27.9% of the targets. Arizona played two deep safeties on 49.2% of snaps last season, so expect most of his catches underneath … Kyren Williams has 28 targets in three weeks and should get about 16 carries and four targets at $6,800.
Jacoby Brissett went 29 of 47 for 292 yards and three touchdowns in Week 5, and he should throw about 35 times at $5,800. Trey McBride has 33 targets in three games and costs $7,200 for about a quarter of the targets … Michael Wilson has 37 targets in three weeks and leads the closing block below … Jeremiyah Love ran 12 times for 22 yards in Week 5. He should get about 13 carries but fewer than three targets on a team expected to score 19, so he needs a touchdown.
Rams games have averaged 138 plays over their last three. Arizona should be throwing late, which keeps McBride and Wilson in play.
Model Prediction: LA 36, ARI 16. We have the Rams by 19.7, and the market stops at 12.5.
Late Window, 4:25 PM ET
BUF @ LV
Team Totals: BUF 28.5, LV 23.4
This game has the highest total on the slate, 51.9, and Bills games have averaged 129 plays. Josh Allen ran 10 times for 121 yards in Week 5, and he should run more than any quarterback on the slate, about seven or eight times, at $7,500 … James Cook ran 25 times for 111 yards and two touchdowns, and he should get about 20 carries at $7,400. He only gets about two targets, so his floor comes from carries and goal-line work … DJ Moore is questionable with a shoulder injury. Khalil Shakir ($5,300) should get about five targets, and no defense on this slate played more zone last season than Las Vegas, 79.6%.
Kirk Cousins threw 28 of the Raiders' 36 passes in Week 5 for 243 yards and costs $5,400. Brock Bowers has scored in three straight games and has 34 targets in that time. He's the most expensive tight end on the slate at $7,500, with about a quarter of the targets … Ashton Jeanty should get about 15 carries and five targets at $6,500.
Model Prediction: BUF 31, LV 22
LAC @ KC
Team Totals: LAC 18.0, KC 25.0
Patrick Mahomes went 15 of 30 for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4 before the bye, and he costs $6,500. Kenneth Walker III should get more carries than any back on the slate, about 22, after he ran for 177 yards and two scores on 22 carries in Week 4. At $8,500 no back has a bigger workload … Rashee Rice is questionable with a hamstring. Xavier Worthy is a good value at $4,600 with about six targets, and the Chargers played zone on 77.7% of snaps last season, which suits his crossing routes. Karlaftis and the Chiefs rush get the worst line in football.
The Chargers have the lowest team total on the slate, and they throw 12.4 points less than expected in neutral situations, the lowest rate on the slate. Justin Herbert ran six times for 54 yards in Week 5 and is the fourth-best quarterback value at $5,000 … Omarion Hampton should get about 14 carries but only one target on the lowest total, so he's a touchdown-or-nothing play.
The 43-point total says this will be ugly, but Chiefs games have averaged 130 plays over their last three.
Model Prediction: KC 22, LAC 20. We have Kansas City by 1.8, and the market has them by 8.5.
Unrealized Air Yards
Unrealized air yards are the yards a receiver was targeted downfield minus the yards he caught. When a receiver keeps getting the targets, that gap usually closes.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals: 172 yards of gap. Week 3: 17 targets, 162 air yards, 89 receiving yards. Week 4: 13 targets, 123 air yards, 95 receiving yards. Week 5: seven targets, 101 air yards, 30 receiving yards. He's come up short of his air yards in every one of these games, Arizona should be throwing from behind, and his $6,700 price still reflects the bad Week 5.
Carnell Tate, Titans: 166 yards of gap. Week 3: nine targets, 102 air yards, 58 receiving yards. Week 4: 12 targets, 160 air yards, 145 receiving yards. Week 5: five targets, 113 air yards, 6 receiving yards. Most of that gap is from last week, so we like him a little less than Wilson, but he gets almost half of Tennessee's air yards at $5,000.
Denzel Boston, Browns: 127 yards of gap. Week 3: four targets, 51 air yards, 41 receiving yards. Week 4: seven targets, 158 air yards, 89 receiving yards. Week 5: seven targets, 94 air yards, 46 receiving yards. He's left yards out there in all three games, and he gets more targets if Concepcion sits.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this breakdown comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.