NFL DFS Matchups Week 9: Raiders at 49ers Tops the Slate

San Francisco has the biggest team total on Sunday's main slate, 29.8 points, and Christian McCaffrey is questionable with a hamstring injury. We wrote this on Wednesday, and the injury notes below will shift before kickoff.

Friday brings the update. Top Plays posts Friday with fresh injury news, confirmed starters and any Model Bets, next to the rest of our NFL DFS articles.

Slate Overview

Switch tabs for the injuries and the line matchups that move this slate.

Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS

Pass Rush Mismatches

Cleveland's line sits 32nd in our ranks with an 11.6% sack rate allowed. Chase Young has seven sacks and Carl Granderson has 5.5 for a Saints front ranked 10th. Deshaun Watson takes a beating in this spot, and the Saints D/ST is a good buy.

The Chargers line ranks 31st and gives up a sack on 9.7% of dropbacks. Houston's front is fifth, with Will Anderson at 7.5 sacks and Danielle Hunter at 17 pressures. The Texans D/ST is one of the best on the board.

Miami's line is 29th and allows a sack on 10.3% of dropbacks. Aidan Hutchinson has 23 pressures and Alim McNeill has 4.5 sacks for a Detroit front ranked sixth. Malik Willis will be running for his life, and the Lions D/ST fits.

Denver's front is second in our ranks and gets pressure on 25.6% of dropbacks. Zach Allen leads it with 21 pressures. Carolina's line is 26th and lets the quarterback get hit on 29.3% of dropbacks. We like the Broncos D/ST.

On the other side, Denver's protection ranks fourth with a 3.8% sack rate allowed, and Carolina's rush ranks 31st. Bo Nix gets time. Fade the Panthers D/ST.

Nobody protects better than the Rams, who allow pressure on 16.0% of dropbacks. K'Lavon Chaisson has 16 pressures for a Washington front ranked 15th. That's a clean pocket for Matthew Stafford if his arm is fine.

Dallas protects well, fifth in our ranks with a 3.5% sack rate allowed. The Colts front is 24th and is without Arden Key. Dak Prescott should be comfortable, and the Colts D/ST is a pass.

Full line and pass rush ranks for every game: NFL OL vs DL matchups

Run Blocking Matchups

The Rams have the best run blocking line in our ranks, and Rams backs average 5.0 yards a carry. Washington's run defense ranks 28th even though it holds backs to 3.6. That's the friendliest run game on the board for Kyren Williams, with Blake Corum cutting into it.

San Francisco's line is sixth in run blocking and faces the worst run defense in our ranks. Las Vegas allows backs 5.3 yards a carry. Whoever carries it for the 49ers, McCaffrey or Kaelon Black, has the matchup.

Seattle has the best run defense in our ranks, and Arizona has to run at it. Seattle holds backs to 3.3 yards a carry, and the Cardinals line is 23rd. Tyler Allgeier needs a touchdown.

Miami's run blocking ranks 26th, and Detroit's run defense is ninth. Ollie Gordon II gets the work, but this is a tough place to find yards.

The Chargers line is 29th in run blocking and faces a Houston run defense ranked 13th. Chargers backs average 3.7 yards a carry, and we're staying away.

Early Window, 1:00 PM ET

DAL @ IND

Team Totals: DAL 27.4, IND 23.3

Dak Prescott went 19 of 29 for 195 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 and ran one in. He should throw about 35 times at $6,500. His line is fifth in our pass protection ranks, and the Colts bring a 24th-ranked rush without Arden Key, so leave the Colts D/ST alone. This game projects for three more plays than average, and Dallas is third in neutral pace … Javonte Williams ran 24 times for 56 yards in Week 8 and caught one pass. He should get about 18 carries but only two or three targets at $7,300. Indianapolis has given up the seventh-most DraftKings points to backs, 26.3 a game over eight games … CeeDee Lamb caught seven of 11 targets for 58 yards in Week 8. He has a 28.1% projected target share at $8,300 and 179 unrealized air yards over three weeks, week by week below … George Pickens ($6,300) has a 17.9% projected target share, and Ryan Flournoy ($4,800) caught a touchdown last week.

Daniel Jones went 19 of 28 for 144 yards, a touchdown and two picks in Week 8. It wasn't pretty, but he should throw about 33 times at $4,700 in the game with the second-highest total on the slate, and he's a good value. Dallas has given up the sixth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks, 20.9 a game … Jonathan Taylor ran eight times for 23 yards in Week 8 and caught four of five targets. Expect about 16 carries and three targets at $7,500, and we'd rather spend that money on Kyren Williams … Tyler Warren caught four of 10 targets for 18 yards in Week 8. He has a 19.3% projected target share at $4,600, and that's a lot of targets for that price … Keenan Allen ($4,900) caught all seven of his targets for 67 yards, and Josh Downs ($5,100) scored. Both should see about six targets.

Both offenses keep the ball moving. Dallas games have averaged about 138 plays across the last three, so both quarterbacks get plenty of dropbacks.

Model Prediction: IND 26, DAL 25. We have Indianapolis winning a game the market has Dallas favored by 5.5.

NYJ @ KC

Team Totals: NYJ 19.0, KC 27.6

Patrick Mahomes went 30 of 41 for 321 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8. He should throw about 33 times at $6,100. His line is ninth in our pass protection ranks against a Jets front ranked 22nd, so pass on the Jets D/ST. Expect an average play count, with Kansas City ninth in neutral pace … Kenneth Walker III ran 21 times for 69 yards and caught four of five targets in Week 8. He should get about 22 carries and three or four targets at $9,000, and Kansas City has the third-highest team total on the slate. He'll be one of the most popular backs this week … Rashee Rice caught seven of eight for 53 yards and a score in Week 8. He has a 19.7% projected target share at $6,400 … Xavier Worthy ($4,400) has a 16.6% projected target share, and we like him more than Rice at the price … Travis Kelce ($4,900) caught five of seven for 67 yards.

Geno Smith went 20 of 32 for 290 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8. He's cheap at $4,900, but the Jets have the second-lowest team total on the slate … Breece Hall has missed the last two games with a quad injury and is questionable again. Braelon Allen ran 21 times for 147 yards and a score in Week 8, but he costs $6,300 and catches a couple of passes a game. Kansas City's run defense ranks sixth and holds backs to 3.3 yards a carry. With that team total, Allen is a touchdown-dependent dart … Garrett Wilson caught six of 12 for 83 yards in Week 8. He has a 19.4% projected target share at $6,600, and Kansas City has given up the second-fewest DraftKings points to wide receivers, 25.2 a game. That's too much money … Adonai Mitchell ($4,500) caught seven of nine for 142 yards and a touchdown.

Model Prediction: KC 30, NYJ 17. A 13.5-point margin against a market spread of 9.5.

DET @ MIA

Team Totals: DET 28.3, MIA 21.8

Jared Goff went 18 of 25 for 176 yards, a touchdown and a pick in Week 8. He should throw about 32 times at $6,600, and that's more than we want to pay. Expect about one play more than average: Detroit is fifth in neutral pace and Miami is 29th … Jahmyr Gibbs ran 23 times for 153 yards and a score in Week 8. He should get 22 or 23 carries, the most on the slate, plus about five targets at $10,000. Miami played zone on 72.5% of snaps last season, and backs see more checkdowns against zone. The field will pile on him, and he's in our builds too … Amon-Ra St. Brown caught seven of eight for 46 yards in Week 8. His 29.1% projected target share is third on the slate, and he costs $8,100 … Jameson Williams ($6,100) scored in Weeks 7 and 8 … Sam LaPorta ($5,100) saw five targets in Week 8.

Malik Willis went 21 of 32 for 211 yards, two touchdowns and a pick in Week 8. He should run five or six times at $5,100, and Detroit has given up the most DraftKings points to quarterbacks in the league, 26.6 a game over seven games. His line is the problem. Miami ranks 29th in our pass protection ranks, Aidan Hutchinson has 23 pressures, and the Lions D/ST is in play … Ollie Gordon II ran 19 times for 69 yards in Week 8 and didn't catch a pass. He should get 15 or 16 carries at $5,600, but Miami's run blocking ranks 26th against a Detroit run defense ranked ninth. He needs a touchdown … Malik Washington ($4,700) has an 18.8% projected target share and scored last week … Greg Dulcich ($3,100) caught four of six for 43 yards, and Detroit has given up the most DraftKings points to tight ends, 28.3 a game.

Model Prediction: DET 28, MIA 21

LA @ WAS

Team Totals: LA 25.9, WAS 21.2

Matthew Stafford is questionable with an arm injury. He went 17 of 25 for 157 yards, a touchdown and a pick in Week 8, and the books still price him as the starter. Stetson Bennett ($4,000) is next if he sits. Stafford costs $6,200 and gets the best pass protection line in our ranks against a Washington front ranked 15th, so fade the Commanders D/ST … Puka Nacua caught 11 of 12 for 80 yards and a score in Week 8. His 32.1% projected target share is second on the slate, and he costs $8,800 … Kyren Williams ran 16 times for 56 yards and a score in Week 8. He should get about 15 carries at $7,600 behind the top run blocking line in our ranks, against a Washington run defense ranked 28th. Blake Corum ($5,100) ran 11 times for 73 yards and a score, so Kyren doesn't get it all … Tyler Higbee ($3,700) is a cheap tight end with about five targets.

Jayden Daniels went 16 of 29 for 217 yards and a touchdown in Week 8. He should run about six times at $6,000, more than any quarterback on the slate … Rachaad White ran 11 times for 55 yards and a score in Week 8. He should get about 11 carries and three targets at $5,100, but the Rams run defense ranks eighth … Stefon Diggs ($5,600) leads the receivers with a 21.4% projected target share … Antonio Williams ($4,100) caught five of seven for 54 yards in Week 8 and is a good value at that price.

Expect two or three plays above average. Washington games have averaged 129 plays across the last three, and gusts near 21 mph won't stop either passing game.

Model Prediction: LA 29, WAS 17. An 11.9-point margin against a market spread of 5.5.

DEN @ CAR

Team Totals: DEN 22.9, CAR 20.6

Bo Nix went 20 of 32 for 222 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8. He should throw about 32 times at $5,400, and he's a good value behind a line that gives up a sack on 3.8% of dropbacks. Carolina's rush ranks 31st, so fade the Panthers D/ST … Jonah Coleman ran 11 times for 41 yards and a score in Week 8 and caught four of five targets for 63 yards. J.K. Dobbins ran seven times for 13 yards. Dobbins ($4,800) should get about 12 carries, Coleman ($5,300) about eight with the passing work. Carolina has given up the second-most DraftKings points to backs, 29.6 a game over seven games, so the cheaper Dobbins is the dart we'd take … Jaylen Waddle ($5,700) has a 22.0% projected target share and gets about 40% of Denver's air yards … Courtland Sutton ($4,400) caught all four of his targets for 53 yards and is a good value.

Bryce Young threw 41 times in Week 8 for 209 yards, a touchdown and a pick. He should throw about 35 times at $5,500, but Denver's front is second in our ranks and Carolina's line is 26th. We like the Broncos D/ST … Chuba Hubbard ran 22 times for 81 yards and a score in Week 8 and caught seven of eight targets. About 17 carries and three or four targets at $6,500 is a solid RB2 day … Tetairoa McMillan caught six of 11 for 58 yards. He has a 24.1% projected target share at $6,900. Denver played man on 44.6% of snaps last season, the most of any defense on this slate, and man pushes targets to the wideouts … Jalen Coker ($6,200) has a 19.5% projected target share.

Expect three or four plays above average. Carolina is fourth in neutral pace and throws 6.2 points more than expected in neutral spots, and Denver games have averaged about 130 plays across the last three. More snaps means more targets for McMillan.

Model Prediction: DEN 23, CAR 21

CLE @ NO

Team Totals: CLE 20.4, NO 22.3

Tyler Shough went 30 of 38 for 278 yards, a touchdown and a pick in Week 7 before the bye. He should throw about 33 times at $5,700 … Alvin Kamara caught all seven of his targets for 57 yards in Week 7 but ran six times for five yards. He should get five or six carries and four targets at $5,000, and Kendre Miller ($4,500) should get about nine carries. Neither is a cash play behind a line ranked 24th in run blocking … Chris Olave caught six of 10 for 56 yards in Week 7. He has a 22.8% projected target share and 45.1% of the Saints' air yards at $7,400 … Devaughn Vele ($5,100) caught all five of his targets for 54 yards and a score.

Deshaun Watson went 27 of 39 for 324 yards in Week 8 with no touchdowns. He should throw about 30 times at $5,200, behind the worst pass protection line in our ranks. Chase Young has seven sacks, and the Saints D/ST is a good play … Quinshon Judkins ran 11 times for 25 yards in Week 8. He should get about 12 carries at $5,400, and New Orleans has given up the most DraftKings points to running backs in the league, 32.5 a game over seven games … Harold Fannin Jr. caught 10 of 12 targets for 154 yards in Week 8. He costs $4,700 with an 18.1% projected target share … Denzel Boston has 245 unrealized air yards over the last three weeks, more below.

This one projects for the most plays on the slate, about 125, three or four above average. New Orleans snaps it faster than anyone in neutral game script, so you get more plays than a total in the low 40s suggests.

Model Prediction: NO 23, CLE 20

NYG @ PHI

Team Totals: NYG 21.0, PHI 19.6

J.J. McCarthy went 20 of 28 for 252 yards in Week 7 before the bye. He should throw about 30 times at $4,800 … Cam Skattebo is questionable with a hamstring injury. He ran 17 times for 124 yards and a score in Week 7, and he should get about 14 carries at $5,600 if he plays. Devin Singletary ($4,600) takes over if he sits … Malik Nabers caught seven of nine for 111 yards in Week 7. He has a 28.6% projected target share at $7,300, and Philadelphia has given up the second-most DraftKings points to wide receivers, 40.1 a game over eight games. The Eagles played man on 43.6% of snaps last season, and man sends more targets to wideouts … Isaiah Likely ($5,000) has a 23.0% projected target share, big for a tight end at that price.

Tanner McKee went 23 of 34 for 212 yards and a pick in Week 8. He's $4,600, but Philadelphia's 19.6 team total is near the bottom of the slate … Elijah Mitchell is the back we want here. He ran 11 times and caught four of six targets in Week 8. He should get nine or 10 carries and three targets at $4,500, and no back on the slate scores more for the price … Saquon Barkley ($6,200) ran 13 times for 30 yards and a score, and he catches about one pass a game. He needs a touchdown … DeVonta Smith has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury and is questionable. Makai Lemon ($4,700) caught six of nine for 57 yards in Week 8.

The Giants are last in neutral pace, yet this game projects for about one more play than average, and Giants games have averaged 133 plays across the last three. New York also ranks seventh in plays per game.

Model Prediction: NYG 21, PHI 17

Afternoon Window, 4:05 PM ET

HOU @ LAC

Team Totals: HOU 22.4, LAC 19.2

C.J. Stroud went 17 of 28 for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7 before the bye. He should throw about 33 times at $5,900, and that's too much … David Montgomery missed Week 7 with a groin injury and is questionable again. Woody Marks ran 19 times for 66 yards in Week 7. He should get about 16 carries at $5,700, and more if Montgomery sits … Nico Collins caught two of five for six yards in Week 7. He has a 17.9% projected target share at $7,200, and that's not enough for the price … Dalton Schultz ($3,200) caught five of six for 45 yards and is one of the best tight end values on the slate … Will Anderson (7.5 sacks) and a Houston front ranked fifth get the Chargers line ranked 31st. The Texans D/ST is a top option.

Justin Herbert went 24 of 32 for 257 yards and two picks in Week 8. At $5,000 he's a good value and should run about five times, but his line gives up a sack on 9.7% of dropbacks, and the Chargers throw 11.7 points less than expected in neutral spots, the lowest rate on the slate … Omarion Hampton ran nine times for 20 yards in Week 8, and Kimani Vidal ran eight times for 23. Hampton ($4,800) should get about nine carries, but the Chargers run blocking ranks 29th, Houston's run defense is 13th, and Los Angeles has one of the three lowest team totals on the slate. Skip this backfield … Houston has given up the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers, 38.6 a game over seven games, but no Chargers receiver has more than an 11.7% projected target share. Ladd McConkey ($5,500) caught four of six for 86 yards in Week 8.

The total is one of the lowest on the slate, but the game projects right at an average play count, and the Chargers are eighth in neutral pace. A Houston lead makes Herbert throw.

Model Prediction: HOU 22, LAC 18

Late Window, 4:25 PM ET

LV @ SF

Team Totals: LV 21.3, SF 29.8

The whole slate runs through this game. Brock Purdy went 27 of 40 for 288 yards, a touchdown and two picks in Week 7 before the bye. He should throw about 32 times at $6,800. San Francisco's line is second in our pass protection ranks, and Maxx Crosby, with 29 pressures, leads a Raiders rush that has little else, so Purdy should have time. Expect about an average play count, with the Raiders 10th in neutral pace … Christian McCaffrey is questionable with a hamstring injury. He ran seven times for 39 yards and a score and caught six of seven targets for 61 yards in Week 7. If he plays, he should get about 15 carries and five targets at $8,000, behind a line sixth in our run blocking ranks against the worst run defense in them. Las Vegas played zone on 79.6% of snaps last season, more than any defense he could face this week, and that opens the checkdown. If he sits, Kaelon Black ($5,500) ran 12 times for 63 yards and a score in Week 7 … Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) are both questionable, so the receiver room is thin. George Kittle ($6,000) caught eight of 10 for 88 yards in Week 7 and has an 18.4% projected target share. He's the safest pass catcher here.

Kirk Cousins went 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8 and ran one in. He should throw about 36 times at $5,300, and he's a good value with the 49ers putting up points on the other side … Brock Bowers caught seven of 10 for 92 yards and two scores in Week 8. He has a 23.8% projected target share at $7,900, the priciest tight end on the slate … Ashton Jeanty ran twice in Week 8 while Mike Washington Jr. ran 25 times for 83 yards. Jeanty ($5,900) still caught three of four for 64 yards and should see about five targets. Washington ($5,200) gets the carries but almost no passes, and the Raiders have the worst run blocking line in our ranks. He's a touchdown-dependent dart … Michael Mayer ($3,400) caught five of six for 53 yards and should see about five targets.

Model Prediction: SF 34, LV 19. A 14.9-point margin against a market spread of 9.5.

GB @ NE

Team Totals: GB 21.7, NE 24.5

Drake Maye went 16 of 20 for 199 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8 and ran eight times with a score. He should run five or six times, but at $7,000 he's the most expensive quarterback on the slate and he's overpriced. This game projects for about one play more than average … Rhamondre Stevenson ran 19 times for 82 yards in Week 8. He should get about 14 carries at $6,100, more if TreVeyon Henderson (illness) sits, but Green Bay's run defense ranks 10th … A.J. Brown missed Week 8 with an ankle injury and is questionable. DeMario Douglas ($4,800) moves up if he sits … Efton Chism III ($3,600) caught all five of his targets in Week 8, and no receiver on the slate scores more for the price … Hunter Henry is questionable with a foot injury, and Eli Raridon ($3,500) is the cheap tight end behind him.

Jordan Love went 30 of 41 for 288 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8. He should throw about 37 times at $6,300, the most of any quarterback on the slate. His line is third in our pass protection ranks against a New England front ranked 11th, so pass on the Patriots D/ST … Josh Jacobs ran 21 times for 39 yards in Week 8 and scored twice. Green Bay's run blocking ranks 31st, and he costs $6,800. He needs the touchdowns again … Matthew Golden saw 13 targets in Week 8 and caught seven for 79 yards and a score. He has a 23.9% projected target share at $7,000 and 324 unrealized air yards, the biggest gap on the slate, week by week below. Christian Watson is questionable with a rib injury after catching eight of 10 for 113 yards, and Golden's share climbs if Watson sits … Tucker Kraft ($5,500) found the end zone in Weeks 7 and 8.

Model Prediction: NE 26, GB 20

ARI @ SEA

Team Totals: ARI 15.9, SEA 26.4

Sam Darnold went 17 of 34 for 188 yards, two touchdowns and a pick in Week 8. He should throw about 30 times at $5,600 … Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught six of 11 for 118 yards and a score in Week 8. His 32.6% projected target share is the biggest on the slate, and he gets 55.7% of Seattle's air yards at $9,300. He's the Seattle pass catcher we want … The backfield is a three-way split. Emanuel Wilson ($5,000), Jadarian Price ($5,300) and Zach Charbonnet ($5,800) should each get 11 to 14 carries with almost no targets. Skip it … Seattle's front, fourth in our ranks, faces an Arizona line ranked 21st, and the Seahawks D/ST ($3,800) has the most upside of any defense this week.

Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett split Week 8 at 23 passes each, and Minshew went 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns. The books are pricing Minshew as the starter. He's $4,500 with 32 or 33 throws coming, but Arizona has the lowest team total on the slate … Tyler Allgeier ran 11 times for 147 yards and a score in Week 8 and caught all five targets for 44 yards and another score. He should get about 11 carries at $5,400, more if Bam Knight (concussion) sits. Seattle has the top run defense in our ranks, though, and with that team total Allgeier is a touchdown-dependent dart … Trey McBride caught seven of eight for 72 yards and a score. He has a 28.0% projected target share at $7,700 … Michael Wilson is questionable with a rib injury after 15 targets in Week 8, and Seattle has given up the fewest DraftKings points to wide receivers, 24.2 a game over eight games.

A total in the low 40s looks slow, but this game projects for two more plays than average. Arizona runs the second-most plays per game in the league, and Cardinals games have averaged 134 plays across the last three.

Model Prediction: SEA 25, ARI 16

Pace numbers for every game: NFL pace of play. Pass rates for every team: NFL pass rate over expectation.

Unrealized Air Yards

Unrealized air yards are the yards a receiver's targets traveled downfield minus the yards he caught. Steady targets with a big gap usually turn into catches later.

Matthew Golden, Packers: 324 yards of gap. Week 6: 13 targets, 203 air yards, 104 receiving yards. Week 7: 12 targets, 165 air yards, 44 receiving yards. Week 8: 13 targets, 183 air yards, 79 receiving yards. That's 38 targets in three weeks, all with Watson playing, and he missed on chances in each of the three games.

Denzel Boston, Browns: 245 yards of gap. Week 6: five targets, 87 air yards, 15 receiving yards. Week 7: eight targets, 134 air yards, 27 receiving yards. Week 8: 11 targets, 103 air yards, 37 receiving yards. His targets went from five to eight to 11, and at $5,000 we'll keep betting the catches show up in the fastest game on the slate.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys: 179 yards of gap. Week 6: 19 targets, 153 air yards, 70 receiving yards. Week 7: 12 targets, 176 air yards, 74 receiving yards. Week 8: 11 targets, 52 air yards, 58 receiving yards. The gap sits in Weeks 6 and 7, and he's still getting double-digit targets in the game with the second-highest total on the slate.

Tools used for this slate

Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.