High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua, LA WR | Doubtful (hip) | 9 | Davante Adams, 32.1% projected target share; Terrance Ferguson, 21.9% |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
The Game
Sunday night lands at Empower Field at Mile High, open air under an overcast 74F sky, with wind around 15 mph and gusts near 29 that could push a deep ball or a long kick off line in the second half. Los Angeles is a 2.5-point road favorite at -126 to -130 under a 44.5-point total, which works out to team totals near 23.5 for the Rams and 21.4 for Denver. The Rams answered a 27-7 loss to San Francisco by beating the Giants 28-6 behind 327 yards and four touchdowns from Matthew Stafford, while Denver lost 31-10 in Kansas City before it held off Jacksonville 20-13 on a 288-yard afternoon from Bo Nix.
The positional ratings point at one spot on this field, where Rams tight ends against the Denver defense grade out more than twice as wide as any other matchup, and the two receiving corps sit in a near tie for second. At the other end, Nix against this Los Angeles defense and the Denver tight ends against it both sit 18 to 19 rating points underwater. Denver also gave up fewer DraftKings points to running backs than any defense in 2025 and the seventh-fewest to wideouts, while the Rams leaked the ninth-most to receivers, so I expect the passing games to carry the scoring and both backfields to fight for scraps.
The game opens up if Stafford keeps feeding Adams and Ferguson the way he did against New York and Nix answers through Jaylen Waddle on the way past 50 combined points. It closes down in a 20-17 grinder in the wind, where two drives stall in the red zone, Mevis kicks three times, and a kicker or the Denver defense ends up as the optimal CPT.
Los Angeles Rams
Doubtful with a hip, Puka Nacua ($11,600) logged no stats in Week 2, and his status should settle when the inactives post around 6:50 PM ET. The Rams have played eight games without him since the start of 2024, and Tutu Atwell climbed from 2.1 targets a game with Nacua active to 6.3 without him over a 17-game and 7-game split, Colby Parkinson rose from 3.1 to 4.4 across 24 and 8, and Ferguson jumped from 2.1 to 6.0, though that last number rests on two games and I read it as a hint. Kyren Williams gained nothing, holding at 17.0 carries and 2.8 targets with Nacua in the lineup against 17.4 and 2.4 without him across 28 and 7 games, so a Nacua scratch reprices the pass catchers and leaves the backfield where it was. Every split lives in our NFL WOWY tool. If he suits up anyway, he's a large-field CPT at $17,400 and nothing more, and everything below assumes he sits.
Davante Adams ($10,200) caught 8 of 10 targets for 195 yards and a pair of touchdowns against New York, a 33.3% share of the targets and 59.8% of the team's air yards, and 9.0 targets project tonight against a 5.5-reception line and a 74.5-yard number at four books. His range runs the widest of anyone on this board, he reaches a slate-winning score more frequently than anybody else priced above $5,000, and he wins this game more than twice as often as the next name. The field will get to him first, but his edge survives that crowd, which puts him in every cash-game build I make and at CPT on my lone entry. Atwell ($2,200) caught one of two targets for 19 yards against the Giants and projects for 1.4, and he's the cheapest route to the Nacua targets if that WOWY history repeats, making him my large-field dart throw on this side.
Terrance Ferguson ($3,800) caught 6 of 9 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown against New York, a 30.0% share in the first game Nacua didn't log a stat, and 6.2 targets project against a 3.5-reception line and a 50.5-yard number. He owns the widest positional edge in this game at a price that still reads like a backup, and he hits a slate-winning score almost half the time while busting less often than every other receiver or tight end priced above $1,000, which makes him the slate's best price-adjusted play and a lock in every roster I build. Parkinson ($4,200) is questionable with a knee and drew two targets in each game, so he's a large-field pivot at best.
Williams ($8,600) ran 12 times for 85 yards and caught a touchdown on two targets against the Giants, and 13.7 carries and 2.3 targets project against a 52.5 rushing yards line. Blake Corum ($6,600) matched him with 12 carries for 79 yards, the books carry Corum at 46.5 yards and 11.5 attempts against 52.5 and 12.5 for Williams, and Denver allowed fewer DraftKings points to backs than anyone last season. The Rams ran up the middle 148 times for 4.28 YPC and eight scores in 2025 against a Denver interior that held opponents to 3.41, so both backs need a touchdown to pay off, and the field captains Williams far more often than his chances of winning the game justify. I keep him in FLEX and underweight him at CPT, and Corum is a large-field pivot for builds that expect the Rams to milk a lead.
Harrison Mevis ($4,600) carries a kicking points line of 7.5 to Wil Lutz's 6.5, costs $200 less, and busts less often than anybody on this board priced above $1,000, which puts him in my cash-game builds and in play at CPT in the low-scoring branch. At $5,000, the Rams D/ST draws a quarterback who has thrown an interception in both games, though it costs $1,600 more than the other unit for a similar case.
Stafford ($10,400) threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns with an interception against New York after a 155-yard opener, and he projects for 28.1 attempts against a 33.5 pass attempts line, 241.5 passing yards and a touchdown number at 1.5. He wins this game far more often than the field will put him at CPT, the second-largest gap on the board behind Adams, and his floor holds up with two pass catchers taking 63% of the Week 2 targets, so I use him as a cash-game FLEX anchor and my second choice at CPT in large fields.
Denver Broncos
Jaylen Waddle ($9,600) opened his Denver career with one catch for two yards on three targets in Kansas City and then caught 8 of 10 for 138 yards against Jacksonville, a 34.5% share and 57.1% of the air yards, and 6.6 targets project tonight against a 4.5-reception line and 56.5 yards. His 2025 split ran 9.69 YPT against zone and 7.51 against man, and the Rams played zone on 84.2% of their snaps last season, which I use as a mild tilt from 2025 rather than a fact about tonight. Most of his outcomes land low, so I'd call him a large-field piece and the Denver bring-back I use most, and I'd keep him out of cash-game builds.
Courtland Sutton ($7,600) has caught five of nine targets for 36 yards in two games, projects for 4.8, and draws a 3.5-reception line, a price that assumes more than he has produced. Pat Bryant ($5,600) saw six targets in Week 1 and one last week, projects for 3.3, and sits at 25.5 receiving yards, which makes him a touchdown-or-bust dart throw. Troy Franklin ($2,400) has three targets in two games and is the cheaper version of that bet, while Marvin Mims Jr. ($2,600) is questionable with a foot and logged no stats in Week 2, so I'm passing on him.
Evan Engram ($3,000) caught four of five for 43 yards and a touchdown in the opener and had one catch for 17 last week, and 2.8 targets project against a 2.5-reception line. The Denver tight ends against this Rams defense grade out as one of the worst spots on the field, but his outcomes stretch higher than a $3,000 tag usually allows, which makes him useful salary relief under an expensive CPT. Nate Adkins ($1,600) scored on one of his three catches last week and is another touchdown-or-bust dart throw in an offense that used two or more tight ends on 22.9% of its 2025 snaps.
J.K. Dobbins ($7,400) has run 18 times for 72 yards in two games without a single target, and 9.6 carries project against a 51.5 rushing yards line that the books set well above where I have him. Jonah Coleman matched Dobbins with 10 carries last week and added a score and three catches, and he's now on injured reserve, so that work goes to Dobbins, RJ Harvey ($7,000) and Tyler Badie ($5,400). Harvey logged a full practice Thursday after logging no stats in Week 2 with a hamstring, and I won't build around him until he shows up in a box score again, which leaves Dobbins as a zero-target back at a feature-back price against a defense that allowed 20.8 DraftKings points a game to running backs in 2025. I'd leave the Denver backfield to other people.
Wil Lutz ($4,800) carries the lower kicking points line and costs more than Mevis, so he's a Denver-controls-it pivot rather than a default. At $3,400, the Denver D/ST offers the cheapest route to CPT leverage in this game, since it wins the scoring title at more than triple the rate the field puts it up top, and Stafford has thrown an interception in both of the last two games.
Nix ($10,000) completed 22 of 31 for 288 yards, a touchdown and an interception last week and added five carries, and he projects for 30.1 attempts and 4.4 carries against a 33.5 pass attempts line, 211.5 passing yards and a 16.5 rushing yards number. He draws the weakest individual rating of anyone on the field, but those carries give him a floor a little steadier than Stafford's, and both quarterbacks belong on most showdown rosters, so I lock him into cash-game FLEX spots and captain him only in builds where Denver trails and Nix drops back 40 times.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | Overall | $10,200 | 195 yards and a pair of scores last week on 10 looks, now the clear top target. |
| Matthew Stafford | Overall | $10,400 | Four touchdown passes against the Giants and room at CPT the field won't use. |
| Bo Nix | Overall | $10,000 | A rushing floor plus 288 yards last week against Jacksonville. |
| Terrance Ferguson | Value | $3,800 | Nine targets in the first game without Nacua and the widest edge in this game. |
| Harrison Mevis | Value | $4,600 | One more kicking point than Lutz at $200 less. |
| Evan Engram | Value | $3,000 | Salary relief with a touchdown already this season. |
| Jaylen Waddle | Leverage | $9,600 | Ten targets and 138 yards last week against a Rams defense that plays zone. |
| Denver D/ST | Leverage | $3,400 | Stafford has thrown an interception in both games. |
| Tutu Atwell | Dart Throw | $2,200 | His targets tripled in the seven games Nacua didn't play. |
The Captain's Chair
Davante Adams goes up top on my single entry, because he wins this game far more often than anyone else on the board, and $15,300 at CPT still fits Stafford, Nix and Ferguson underneath with room left over. He'll also be the most popular CPT tonight, and I'm fine sharing that roster, since the alternative is betting against the one player whose role grew this week.
Terrance Ferguson moves to the top in large fields, where $5,700 at CPT buys Adams, both quarterbacks and Waddle underneath, and a tight end at this price usually draws less attention than his projection suggests. I get to a lineup nobody else has with the Denver D/ST up top, since it barely registers at CPT while Stafford has thrown an interception in each of his first two games, and $5,100 in that slot leaves every premium tag on the board available.
The history of first-place lineups offers two useful guides here. 48% of winners rostered both quarterbacks, and with Stafford and Nix as the two safest expensive tags on the board, most of my builds start there. Only 8% of winners used the full cap and a quarter left $2,000 or more behind, which supports letting Ferguson or Mevis save salary rather than forcing in a fourth expensive tag.
Stack Ideas
CPT Davante Adams, Bo Nix, Matthew Stafford, Terrance Ferguson, Harrison Mevis, Evan Engram. My first entry, with both quarterbacks under the player most likely to win the game, at $47,100.
CPT Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, Terrance Ferguson, Harrison Mevis, Evan Engram. The shootout, betting Stafford repeats the Giants game and Waddle keeps pace, with Engram as the second Denver piece instead of Nix, at $46,800.
CPT Jaylen Waddle, Bo Nix, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Terrance Ferguson, Evan Engram. Denver falls behind and Nix throws 40 times, with Adams and Ferguson as the Rams scoring that created the deficit, at $49,000.
CPT Denver D/ST, Bo Nix, Jaylen Waddle, Wil Lutz, Davante Adams, Terrance Ferguson. Denver controls the game in the wind while the Rams settle for field goals, and Adams and Ferguson serve as the bring-back, at $43,500.
CPT Terrance Ferguson, Davante Adams, Matthew Stafford, Bo Nix, Jaylen Waddle, Tutu Atwell. The large-field version, where the cheapest real CPT on the board buys every expensive name plus a dart on the Nacua targets, at $48,100.
Model Recommended Bets
We land on Los Angeles 24.0 and Denver 20.6, a 44.6-point game that matches the posted 44.5, which leaves the total without an edge and makes the Rams moneyline the one market I'd consider.
Los Angeles moneyline (-126) is a small lean. The Rams win outright in 57.5% of our runs against 53.7% in the devigged market, a 3.8-point gap that tells me the books are still pricing a Nacua-sized hole after Adams and Ferguson filled it for 249 yards, and I'd shop for -126 rather than lay -130.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Tutu Atwell at +1500 to +1750 is the single long shot on this board worth a bet. Our number has him scoring 6.5% of the time against a devigged figure near 5.2% across three books, a thin 1.3-point gap that depends on Nacua sitting and the WOWY history holding, so I'd only take it at +1750. Volume in Week 3 still carries part of the preseason baseline, and none of the books offer the no side here, which inflates every fair figure at long odds, so I treat the level as rough.
The other direction is louder. Kyren Williams at -110 to -118 is priced at 44.2% against our 36.5%, J.K. Dobbins at +131 to +150 sits at 35.5% against our 28.6%, and Evan Engram at +340 to +475 is at 17.7% against our 13.2%, so all three touchdown prices look expensive to me.
Final Thoughts
If I had one bullet, it goes to Adams at CPT with Nix, Stafford, Ferguson, Mevis and Engram underneath, because the receiver whose role grew the most this week gets both quarterbacks and the widest edge in the game behind him, and the roster still leaves $2,900 unspent.
The 6:50 PM ET inactives settle Nacua, and I'd check the wind before lock, since gusts near 29 mph would push me toward Mevis and the Denver D/ST and away from the deep shots to Waddle.
In a bigger pool, I move to Ferguson or the Denver D/ST at CPT, because Adams, Stafford and Nix will take most of the top-slot entries between them, and a $5,700 tight end with nine targets last week is the cheapest real way out of that crowd.
Tools used for this slate
Build from this week's NFL DFS projections and run the free NFL showdown lineup optimizer on the CPT builds above.
The NFL positional Elo ratings flagged the Ferguson matchup and the tough Nix draw, the NFL run gap efficiency tool showed why both backfields need a touchdown, NFL coverage splits by receiver framed the Waddle lean, NFL defense vs position priced the Denver run defense, and NFL personnel groupings set the ceiling on the Denver tight ends.
Check the NFL weather report for the Denver wind before lock, compare prices on the live NFL odds and totals page, and find everything else on the NFL DFS hub.