NFL DFS Picks Week 10: Robinson, Carson Beck and Top Plays

Bijan Robinson, James Cook and Chuba Hubbard all fit in one DraftKings cash build this week, and Carson Beck at $4,200 is the reason. Arizona's Week 9 quarterback is on injured reserve, every book with a passing line has Carson Beck as the guy, and we spend his savings on three backs who should each get 17 or more carries. San Francisco at Dallas has the highest total on the slate at 54.2, and San Francisco has the top team total at 28.7. Carolina at New Orleans should run the most plays, about 128, and Miami at Indianapolis the fewest, about 119. It's Friday, and the injury tags will keep moving until inactives post. Some of the board moved since Wednesday. The injury section below has a tab for what changed. Wednesday's Matchups piece goes game by game.

In cash we want the players most of the room will also have: a floor that holds, the best points per dollar in their price band and real touches. Popular is good there. Last week Matthew Golden caught all 10 of his targets for 164 yards and a touchdown. We missed on a $5,700 receiver who caught one pass for 22 yards, so this week our cheap receiver is Wan'Dale Robinson, who takes over the Tennessee targets that just opened up. Tournaments run on different math, with ownership and stacking picking the players.

Slate Overview

Switch tabs for the injuries, what changed since Wednesday and the line matchups.

Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS

High Impact Weather

No main-slate game has weather strong enough to move a decision this week. Buffalo at the Jets is the closest call, with wind near 13 miles an hour and gusts near 18, and that doesn't change our read on Josh Allen or James Cook. Carolina at New Orleans, Kansas City at Atlanta and Seattle at Las Vegas play under a roof.

Kickoff forecasts for every game: NFL weather today

Pass Rush Mismatches

Nobody protects worse than Cleveland in our ranks, and the Browns give up a sack on 11.8% of dropbacks. Houston's front is second in our ranks, with Will Anderson at 9.5 sacks and Danielle Hunter at 21 pressures. Deshaun Watson is back under center for Cleveland, and he takes a beating behind this line. The Texans are a cash defense on both sites.

Kirk Cousins makes his first start for Minnesota behind a line ranked 28th that gives up a sack on 9.3% of dropbacks. Green Bay's front ranks 15th, and Lukas Van Ness has 4.5 sacks. At $2,900, the Packers are our DraftKings defense.

San Francisco's rush is last in our ranks and gets a Dallas line ranked seventh, so Dak Prescott should have time to throw about 37 passes. Dallas brings a rush ranked 20th against the 49ers line, second in our ranks. Both quarterbacks get clean pockets in the highest-total game on the slate, and that's the game we stack in tournaments. Leave both defenses alone.

Minnesota's front is first in our ranks and gets pressure on 35.0% of dropbacks, with Dallas Turner at 28 pressures, but Green Bay's line is fourth, so the Vikings defense is a tournament piece only. Buffalo's front ranks 16th and gets a Jets line ranked 30th that gives up a sack on 9.4% of dropbacks, with Gregory Rousseau at 35 pressures. New Orleans, sixth in our ranks, faces a Carolina line ranked 24th that lets Bryce Young get hit on 30.7% of dropbacks. Going the other way, Carolina's rush ranks 30th against a Saints line ranked 14th, so Tyler Shough should have room. Every line and pass rush rank is on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page.

Run Blocking Matchups

No line in our ranks run blocks better than the Rams, whose backs average 4.9 yards a carry. Arizona's run defense is 21st and allows 4.0. Kyren Williams ($7,100) should get about 15 carries with Blake Corum taking about 11, so Kyren Williams is a cash want and a tournament piece.

Buffalo is second in run blocking against a Jets run defense ranked 29th. Bills backs average 4.6 yards a carry, and the Jets allow 4.2. James Cook ($7,400) should get about 21 carries, the most of any back on the slate, and he's one of our three cash backs.

Kenneth Walker III ($9,200) runs behind the third-best run blocking line in our ranks, and Chiefs backs average 5.3 yards a carry. Atlanta's run defense is 23rd and allows 4.7. He should get about 19 carries, but at $9,200 he's a tournament play for us.

The 49ers rank sixth in run blocking and face a Dallas run defense ranked 20th that allows 4.8 yards a carry to backs. Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) should get about 15 carries and five targets, and he's a fine bring-back in a Dallas stack.

Carolina is eighth in run blocking, and New Orleans ranks 24th and gives up 4.7 yards a carry to backs. That's one more reason Chuba Hubbard ($7,200) is in our cash builds.

Arizona's line is 25th in run blocking and faces a Rams run defense ranked seventh that holds backs to 3.6. Tyler Allgeier ($5,200) should get about 10 carries and three targets with Bam Knight questionable, on the lowest team total on the slate. It's touchdown or nothing for him.

Green Bay's run blocking is 31st, and Packers backs average 3.0 yards a carry against a Minnesota run defense ranked 11th. Kaleb Johnson ($4,600) leads a split backfield at about seven carries, and we're skipping all of it.

Las Vegas is last in run blocking and meets the top run defense in our ranks, which holds backs to 3.2 yards a carry. Ashton Jeanty ($5,400) should get about 10 carries and four targets, so his catches are the only reason to play him.

CASH

QUARTERBACK

Quarterback bands on DraftKings: pay up $6,300 and above, mid tier $5,200 to $6,200, cheap under $5,200.

Josh Allen ($7,500 DK, $9,500 FD) - Cash chalk. On FanDuel, he's our quarterback. He went 21 of 31 for 234 yards in Week 9 and ran six times, and the week before he ran in a score. He should throw about 30 times and run about seven, and his rushing line sits at 6.5 attempts. Buffalo has the second-highest team total on the slate at 28.0. On DraftKings, $7,500 takes the money that buys a third running back.

Brock Purdy ($7,000 DK, $8,700 FD) - Cash chalk. We're passing on him for DraftKings cash. San Francisco has the top team total on the slate, and he went 17 of 25 for 232 yards and two scores in Week 9 and ran one in himself. He should throw about 33 times behind a line ranked second in pass protection, and the game should run about three plays more than average. His price is the problem. The $2,800 he costs over Carson Beck is the Chuba Hubbard money, and the first swap makes the case for spending it there.

Tyler Shough ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD) - Cash chalk. If you want a real passer instead of Carson Beck, he's the one. Week 9 was 21 of 35 for 265 yards and a score, plus 10 runs for 51 yards. Expect about 36 throws and four or five runs, and the books put his rushing line at 4.5 attempts. Carolina at New Orleans should run about 128 plays, six more than an average game, and Carolina's rush can't get home. That's a high floor for $5,600.

Carson Beck ($4,200 DK, $6,000 FD) - Cash chalk. Our DraftKings quarterback. With Arizona's Week 9 quarterback on injured reserve, four books hang a 175.5 passing yardage line on Carson Beck, and he should throw about 31 times and run three or four. Arizona has the lowest team total on the slate, 16.5, so we aren't expecting fireworks, and at this price we don't need them. The game should run about three plays more than average, and his salary is what puts Bijan Robinson, James Cook and Chuba Hubbard in the same lineup.

RUNNING BACK

Running back bands: pay up $7,500 and above, mid tier $5,700 to $7,400, cheap under $5,700.

Bijan Robinson ($8,200 DK, $8,800 FD) - Cash chalk. Every build we like starts with him. He ran 19 times for 100 yards and a score in Week 9 and caught six of seven targets for 47 yards. The books have him at 19.5 carries and 4.5 catches, and we expect about 19 carries and five targets indoors in Atlanta. A back who catches passes like this has a bad day that's still playable.

James Cook ($7,400 DK, $8,400 FD) - Cash chalk. He ran 31 times for 107 yards and a score in Week 9 after 21 carries and a score the week before. We expect about 21 carries, and the books are close at 19.5. He sees about two targets, but Buffalo's 28.0 team total and a top run blocking matchup cover the touchdown side. He's a core play.

Chuba Hubbard ($7,200 DK, $7,200 FD) - Cash chalk. He ran 16 times for 79 yards and caught four of five targets last week, and he caught seven of eight in Week 8. He should get about 17 carries and four targets, right at his 17.5 carry line, in the fastest game on the slate. At the same $7,200 on FanDuel he's an even better value there.

Kyren Williams ($7,100 DK, $7,300 FD) - He's a want if the money's there. He ran 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four targets in Week 9. He should get about 15 carries and four targets behind the best run blocking line in our ranks, and the Rams have a 24.8 team total in a game that should run about three plays above average. Blake Corum's 11 or so carries keep him a want instead of a core play.

Nobody in the cheap band makes our cash pool. Blake Corum ($5,100) is the closest, with about 11 carries and almost no targets.

WIDE RECEIVER

Receiver bands: pay up $7,200 and above, mid tier $5,100 to $7,100, cheap under $5,100.

CeeDee Lamb ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD) - If the salary works after the three backs, play him. He caught 10 of 16 targets for 195 yards and a score in Week 9, and he has 39 targets in three games. He gets half of the Dallas air yards, 50.6%, with 151 unrealized air yards (more on that in the closing block). He should see about 12 targets in the highest-total game on the slate, and if George Pickens sits with his hamstring, Lamb's target share would rise from 30.5% to 38.7%.

Drake London ($6,600 DK, $7,700 FD) - Cash chalk. Our mid-priced receiver. Atlanta sends him 36.0% of its air yards, 187 of them over three games for 156 receiving yards, so the targets are real and the yards have mostly followed. He caught all five of his targets for 68 yards in Week 9 after a one-catch Week 8. He should see about nine targets, a 27.1% target share, and the books have him at 5.5 catches.

Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,500 DK, $5,200 FD) - Cash chalk. A core play at this price. Tennessee's top receiver is out, and Wan'Dale Robinson now has the top target share on the team at 19.9%, about seven targets. He caught six of seven for 57 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 before Tennessee's week off. He works short, 13.8% of the team's air yards with 71 air yards turning into 64 receiving yards, so his value is in the catches. Tennessee is about a nine-point underdog, and that keeps the ball in the air.

Jakobi Meyers ($4,200 DK, $5,800 FD) - Cash chalk. He's questionable with an ankle injury, but four books still post his receiving line, so we play him if he's active and move to KC Concepcion ($4,800) if he sits. He caught four of six for 65 yards in Week 9 and gets 25.7% of the Jacksonville air yards in his two games there. Expect about five targets for a team with a 27.4 team total, the third-highest on the slate.

TIGHT END

Tight end bands: pay up $6,000 and above, mid tier $4,500 to $5,900, cheap under $4,500.

We aren't paying up at the position. Trey McBride ($7,100) has the top tight end role on the slate at a 32.5% target share, and Travis Kelce ($4,700) is the mid-tier name, but both cost receiver money.

Tyler Warren ($4,400 DK, $5,300 FD) - Cash chalk. Our tight end. Indianapolis has 14 of Daniel Jones's 34 Week 9 targets to replace, and Warren should see about seven targets at a 23.1% target share. He caught four of seven for 44 yards last week. He gets 21.7% of the Colts' air yards, and 39 of his 101 air yards never became receiving yards, so there's room for more.

Colby Parkinson ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD) - Cash chalk. He's questionable with a rib injury, and three books still list his catch line, so he's in play if he's active, with Gunnar Helm as the pivot at the same price. He caught all four of his targets in Week 9 and five of six for 48 yards in Week 7. Almost none of his targets travel past the line, so he's a catch-volume punt at about five targets. Tyler Higbee is questionable too.

Gunnar Helm ($3,000 DK, $4,700 FD) - Cash chalk. He caught five of nine for 76 yards in Week 8, and with Tennessee down its top receiver he should see about five targets. He gets 18.2% of the Tennessee air yards, and his 94 air yards turned into 100 receiving yards, so we're paying for the role. He's the safest $3,000 tight end on the board.

DEFENSE

Defense bands: pay up $3,400 and above, mid tier $2,700 to $3,300, cheap under $2,700.

Houston ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD) - Cash chalk. Our FanDuel defense. Cleveland's line is last in our ranks, Will Anderson has 9.5 sacks, and Cleveland has an 18.5 team total. On DraftKings, Green Bay costs $500 less.

Indianapolis ($3,000 DK, $4,100 FD) - Cash chalk. The popular defense we're skipping. Kyle McCord takes over for Miami behind a line ranked 29th, so the field will like it. The Colts rush ranks 23rd and lost DeForest Buckner to San Francisco, and Green Bay wins the second swap.

Green Bay ($2,900 DK, $4,200 FD) - Cash chalk. Our DraftKings defense. Kirk Cousins makes his first Minnesota start behind a line ranked 28th, and Minnesota's 20.1 team total sits near the bottom of the slate.

Nobody in the cheap band is worth it in cash. Miami ($2,600) is the closest.

The Swaps

First, quarterback. Brock Purdy and Gunnar Helm cost $10,000. Tyler Shough and Tyler Warren cost the same $10,000. Shough and Warren project a bit higher, with nearly the same floor. Purdy throws for more yards, but Shough runs more and plays in the fastest game on the slate, and Warren should see about seven targets to Helm's five. Take Shough and Warren. If you're on Carson Beck, the same math says spend the leftover salary at running back.

Second, defense. Indianapolis costs $3,000 and Green Bay costs $2,900, and the two project about the same. The Packers face a quarterback in his first game with a new team behind a weaker line, and the extra $100 helps you fit Lamb. Take Green Bay.

GPP

Uncertainty

San Francisco at Dallas has the highest total on the slate, 54.2, and it should run about three plays more than an average game (NFL pace of play). Three of its receivers are questionable: George Pickens (hamstring) for Dallas and Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) for San Francisco. The field will build this game through CeeDee Lamb ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD, 32% projected GPP ownership) and Brock Purdy ($7,000 DK, $8,700 FD, 18% projected GPP ownership), and the field usually goes heavier on high salaries than our numbers show. We'd start from Dak Prescott ($6,400 DK, $7,900 FD, 7% projected GPP ownership) instead. He went 21 of 34 for 335 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9, and he should throw about 37 times, the most on the slate, with a clean pocket. Pair him with Lamb and Ryan Flournoy ($5,300 DK, $5,500 FD, 3% projected GPP ownership), who moves from a 12.0% to a 15.2% target share if Pickens sits, though the books haven't posted a catch line for him. That gives Prescott two of his own pass catchers. George Kittle ($6,500 DK, $6,600 FD, 7% projected GPP ownership) brings it back. He gets 26.9% of the San Francisco air yards and caught eight of 10 for 88 yards in Week 7. The story is a shootout where Dallas has to throw to keep up.

Late Swap

Two games start at 4:05, Los Angeles at Arizona and Seattle at Las Vegas, and San Francisco at Dallas starts at 4:25. The 4:25 game will be owned on both sides, so if the 1:00 games leave you chasing, switch into the Rams game. Its total is 41.3, but it should run about 125 plays, three more than average, and the field skips it for the total. The Rams receiver who caught 14 of 19 targets in Week 9 is out, which leaves cheap targets to spread around. Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD, 3% projected GPP ownership) threw 43 times in Week 9 and should throw about 32 times behind the best pass protection line in our ranks. Pair him with Tutu Atwell ($3,700 DK, $5,500 FD, 8% projected GPP ownership), who gets 20.4% of the Rams' air yards, and Konata Mumpfield ($4,000 DK, $5,700 FD, 7% projected GPP ownership). Trey McBride ($7,100 DK, $7,400 FD, 11% projected GPP ownership) brings it back with a 32.5% target share, the highest on the slate.

Building It

Carson Beck, Tyler Shough, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford can all carry a tournament lineup, so cap each one at 20% to 30%. Put a 20% cap on each defense too, and set randomness near 30% to keep the lineups from repeating. Our read and the field's split hardest at receiver. The crowd will pile onto CeeDee Lamb in the 4:25 game, and we'd take some of that money and spread it across the cheap Rams receivers instead.

CHEAP WR

This list covers receivers who cost less than $5,000 on DraftKings or no more than $6,000 on FanDuel and should see five or more targets. It leaves a lot of cheap names out on purpose. Wan'Dale Robinson and Jakobi Meyers qualify as well and sit in the cash section.

DraftKings & FanDuel

KC Concepcion ($4,800 DK, $5,700 FD) - 7% projected GPP ownership. He caught four of six for 85 yards and a score in Week 9, and he gets 27.9% of the Cleveland air yards. He has already turned 194 air yards into 251 receiving yards, so you're paying for volume. If Denzel Boston's toe keeps him out, Concepcion would move from 17.6% to 23.1% of the targets.

Jordan Addison ($4,800 DK, $5,700 FD) - 6% projected GPP ownership. Kirk Cousins is new to Minnesota, and T.J. Hockenson is questionable with a wrist injury, which would push Addison from a 16.4% to a 19.1% target share. He gets 31.0% of the Minnesota air yards, and we'd guess five targets.

Malik Washington ($4,700 DK, $5,600 FD) - 4% projected GPP ownership. Malik Washington has an 18.2% target share, and Miami's 18.0 team total means a lot of catch-up throws. He gets 15.3% of the Miami air yards and caught two of three for 21 yards last week.

Devaughn Vele ($4,900 DK, $5,600 FD) - 4% projected GPP ownership. Five catches on five targets for 54 yards and a score in Week 7, and about five targets this week. He works short, 13.9% of the Saints' air yards, but he plays in the fastest game on the slate, about six plays above average.

FanDuel Only (over $5,000 on DraftKings)

Jalen Coker ($5,700 DK, $5,600 FD) - 7% projected GPP ownership. He should see about seven targets at a 17.3% target share, and he caught four of five for 29 yards in Week 9. He gets 17.1% of the Carolina air yards in the fastest game on the slate, and he's $100 cheaper on FanDuel.

Denzel Boston ($5,200 DK, $5,500 FD) - 6% projected GPP ownership. He's questionable with a toe injury. If he plays, he should see about six targets, and he gets 44.2% of the Cleveland air yards, and 145 of his air yards went unrealized, which the next section breaks down.

Unrealized Air Yards

Add up how far each pass thrown at a receiver traveled, subtract the yards he caught, and what's left is unrealized air yards. Wednesday covered Matthew Golden, Chris Olave and Adonai Mitchell. After the context check, these two come next.

Denzel Boston, Browns: 145 unrealized. He's our positive regression candidate. Week 7: eight targets, 134 air yards, 27 receiving yards. Week 8: 11 targets, 103 air yards, 37 receiving yards. Week 9: eight targets, 70 air yards, 98 receiving yards. The gap is Weeks 7 and 8, and he's had 27 targets in three games. His toe is the risk.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys: 151 unrealized. Week 7: 12 targets, 176 air yards, 74 receiving yards. Week 8: 11 targets, 52 air yards, 58 receiving yards. Week 9: 16 targets, 250 air yards, 195 receiving yards. Most of the gap is from Week 7, and he drew 11 or more targets in all three games, with George Pickens playing in two of them.

RANKINGS

Tools used for this slate

Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.