Ten games make up Sunday's DraftKings main slate. The Pittsburgh and New Orleans game in London is not on it. This is a Wednesday read, so the injury report below is a snapshot and a lot of it will change.
Check Friday's article before you build. Our Top Plays article comes out Friday with the updated injury news, the confirmed quarterbacks and this week's Model Bets. Find it with the rest of our NFL DFS articles.
High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson, BAL QB | Questionable (ankle) | 9 | Tyler Huntley ($4,900) threw all 31 Week 6 passes |
| Baker Mayfield, TB QB | Questionable (thumb) | 9 | Jalon Daniels ($4,500) threw all 43 Week 6 passes |
| Mike Evans, SF WR | Questionable (Achilles) | 8 | George Kittle ($5,700), 21.6% projected share |
| Breece Hall, NYJ RB | Questionable (quadriceps) | 8 | Braelon Allen ($5,900), 17 Week 6 carries |
| Adonai Mitchell, NYJ WR | Doubtful (finger) | 8 | Omar Cooper Jr. ($4,100), seven Week 6 targets |
| Jeremiyah Love, ARI RB | Questionable (ankle) | 7 | Tyler Allgeier ($5,000), 18 Week 6 carries |
| Quinshon Judkins, CLE RB | Questionable (ankle) | 7 | Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,900), nine Week 6 carries |
| Jordan Addison, MIN WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 7 | Justin Jefferson ($7,300), 21.8% projected share |
| Tyler Warren, IND TE | Questionable (groin) | 7 | Keenan Allen ($4,800), 11 Week 6 targets |
| T.J. Hockenson, MIN TE | Questionable (concussion) | 7 | Gavin Bartholomew ($2,500), six Week 5 targets |
| David Montgomery, HOU RB | Questionable (groin) | 6 | Woody Marks ($5,600), 15 Week 6 carries |
| Caleb Douglas, MIA WR | Questionable (ankle) | 6 | Malik Washington ($4,900), 21.5% projected share |
| Rashod Bateman, BAL WR | Questionable (shoulder) | 4 | Ja'Kobi Lane ($3,400), five Week 6 targets |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Mismatches
| Pass rush | DL rank | Offensive line | OL rank | Line injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 7 | Cleveland | 32 | None |
| Minnesota | 1 | Indianapolis | 12 | None |
| Cincinnati | 5 | Baltimore | 25 | None |
| Houston | 8 | NY Giants | 26 | None |
| Cleveland | 4 | Tennessee | 22 | None |
| NY Giants | 28 | Houston | 6 | None |
| Las Vegas | 10 | LA Rams | 1 | None |
| Arizona | 14 | Denver | 4 | None |
Cleveland's line ranks 32nd, dead last, and it gives up a sack on 12.1% of dropbacks. Tennessee's front ranks seventh. Jeffery Simmons has 12 pressures and four sacks, and Jacob Martin has 11 pressures and 3.5 sacks. The Titans D/ST is a cheap option, and Watson is going to get hit a lot.
Minnesota's front is first in our ranks. The Vikings blitz on 67.1% of dropbacks and get pressure on 37% of them. Dallas Turner leads the team with 22 pressures and 5.5 sacks. The Colts line ranks 12th, right in the middle of the league. We like the Minnesota D/ST, and Jones has to get rid of the ball fast.
Cincinnati's front is fifth and sacks quarterbacks on 9.2% of dropbacks. Jonathan Allen has 10 pressures, Dexter Lawrence has nine, and Boye Mafe has three sacks. Baltimore's line is 25th. The Bengals D/ST is playable, more so if Tyler Huntley starts again.
Will Anderson has 7.5 sacks and 18 pressures for Houston, and Danielle Hunter adds 14 pressures. Houston's front is eighth against a Giants line ranked 26th that gives up a sack on 7.8% of dropbacks. Houston is laying a big number at home, so the Texans D/ST fits the script. Whoever plays quarterback for New York is in for a long day.
Cleveland's front is fourth. Maliek Collins has 3.5 sacks, and Mason Graham already has four in three games. The Titans line is 22nd and allows pressure on 25.7% of dropbacks. The Browns D/ST is worth a look against an offense that barely throws, and Cam Ward will be under pressure all afternoon.
Houston's line is sixth and lets quarterbacks get hit on only 19.2% of dropbacks. The Giants front is 28th and has Brian Burns on IR. C.J. Stroud should have a clean pocket. Fade the Giants D/ST.
Los Angeles has the top line in our ranks and allows a sack on 3.8% of dropbacks. Maxx Crosby has 24 pressures but only two sacks, and the Raiders front ranks 10th. Matthew Stafford gets time. Skip the Las Vegas D/ST.
Denver's line is fourth and gives up a sack on 4.1% of dropbacks against an Arizona front ranked 14th. Bo Nix should be comfortable. Leave the Cardinals D/ST alone.
Every line and pass rush ranked: NFL OL vs DL matchups
Early Window, 1:00 PM ET
CIN @ BAL
Team Totals: CIN 23.6, BAL 26.2
Lamar Jackson missed Weeks 5 and 6 with an ankle injury, and he's listed as questionable this week. Tyler Huntley ($4,900) threw all 31 passes in Week 6 for 165 yards. If Lamar ($6,700) plays, he should run about six times, and that rushing floor is the whole reason he costs $1,800 more than Huntley. Check Friday's article to see who starts. Cincinnati's front, fifth in our ranks, also gets a Ravens line ranked 25th … Derrick Henry ran 17 times for 58 yards in Week 6. Only Gibbs should get more carries than his 20 or so, but Henry sees about one target a game, so at $7,900 it's touchdown or bust … Zay Flowers had 11 targets in Week 6, and he has a 24.7% projected share and a third of the air yards at $6,900. Rashod Bateman's shoulder has him questionable, and Ja'Kobi Lane ($3,400) caught four of five targets in Week 6 … Mark Andrews ($3,900) is a good tight end value with about five targets.
Joe Burrow is coming off the bye. In Week 5 he went 23 of 32 for 190 yards and four touchdowns. Cincinnati passes more than any team on this slate when the game is close, 7.6 points over its expected rate, but Burrow is overpriced at $6,900 and Baltimore's rush is only 19th against a Bengals line ranked fifth … Ja'Marr Chase caught six of 10 targets for 77 yards and a score in Week 5. At $8,100 he should get about seven targets, and that's too little volume for the price … Tee Higgins ($6,600) gets 40% of the Bengals' air yards … Chase Brown should get about 15 carries and four targets at $6,600. Samaje Perine out-carried him 14 to 13 in Week 5, so this backfield is a split.
The total says shootout, but both offenses rank in the bottom third in neutral pace, and this game projects for a few fewer plays than the average game.
Model Prediction: BAL 27, CIN 23
SF @ ATL
Team Totals: SF 26.0, ATL 22.9
Brock Purdy went 21 of 29 for 264 yards in Week 6 and ran five times for 28 more. He costs $6,600. San Francisco plays a little quicker than Atlanta, and the play count for this game sits close to an average Sunday. Atlanta's rush is ninth, but it gets the second-best line in football … Mike Evans is questionable with an Achilles injury. He went for 94 yards on three catches in Week 6, and no receiver on the slate is a better value at $6,300 if he plays. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are both out … If Evans sits, George Kittle ($5,700) takes over as the top target. He caught five of eight for 69 yards and a score in Week 6 … Christian McCaffrey ran 16 times for 64 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6, and he caught nine of 10 targets. At $7,600 he should get about 14 carries and six or seven targets, and the catches give him the safest floor of any back in this game.
Michael Penix Jr. threw for 225 yards and three touchdowns on 33 passes in Week 6, and he's a good value at $5,300. Atlanta leans on the run in close games, 9.2 points under its expected pass rate, and that caps the secondary pieces … Bijan Robinson had only nine carries and two targets in Week 6, one week after 17 carries and seven targets. He should get about 17 carries and five targets at $8,500. San Francisco played zone on 75.4% of snaps last season, and zone tends to leave the checkdown open for backs like him … Drake London has a 28.0% projected share at $7,500, but he caught only four of 10 targets for 62 yards in Week 6 … Kyle Pitts ($4,000) scored twice in Week 6 and should get about five targets … Jahan Dotson ($3,700) caught three balls for 87 yards and a score last week.
Model Prediction: SF 28, ATL 21
TB @ CAR
Team Totals: TB 21.2, CAR 23.9
Bryce Young threw 39 times for 281 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6, and he costs $5,900 … Chuba Hubbard ran 28 times for 120 yards and a score. He should get about 18 carries at $6,700, but only about three targets, so most of his value comes from the ground and the goal line … Jalen Coker had 13 targets in Week 6 and turned them into 97 yards. He costs $6,100 with a 21.1% projected share … Tetairoa McMillan caught six of nine for 86 yards and costs $7,100 for a 23.6% projected share. Coker is the better value of the two … Tommy Tremble scored twice on four catches, but that's a touchdown-or-nothing tight end.
Baker Mayfield is questionable with a thumb injury, and his last game was Week 3. Jalon Daniels ($4,500) threw 43 times in Week 6 for 164 yards and two picks. If Mayfield ($5,500) is back, the whole passing game gets better, and we'll tell you in Friday's article if he is … Emeka Egbuka had 16 targets in Week 6 and only 48 yards. He has a 25.1% projected share at $5,700, but those targets came from Daniels, and a Mayfield return would change the picture … Bucky Irving ran 19 times for 46 yards and should get about 16 carries at $6,100 … Chris Godwin Jr. ($4,300) had eight targets last week … No tight end is a better value than Cade Otton ($3,100), who should see about five targets.
Carolina snaps the ball third-fastest in neutral situations, and only Green Bay at Detroit projects for more plays, so both quarterbacks get extra dropbacks.
Model Prediction: CAR 24, TB 21
NYG @ HOU
Team Totals: NYG 17.8, HOU 25.9
C.J. Stroud went 24 of 34 for 312 yards and three touchdowns in Week 6, and $5,700 is cheap for that. He gets a Giants front ranked 28th, and Will Anderson and the Houston rush get a Giants line ranked 26th on the other side … Nico Collins caught three passes for 74 yards last week. He costs $7,200 for about 18% of the targets, and that's too much … Jaylin Noel caught four balls for 107 yards and a score, but he's a part-time player and we won't chase it … David Montgomery missed Week 6 with a groin injury and is questionable. Woody Marks ($5,600) had 15 carries in each of the last two games, and he should get about 14 carries if Montgomery sits.
Jameis Winston ($4,800) is the one priced to start, but J.J. McCarthy threw 21 of the Giants' 47 passes in Week 6, so check Friday's article for the starter before you play anyone in this passing game … Malik Nabers caught 12 of 15 targets for 165 yards last week and has 43 targets over his last three games. He costs $6,800 with a 25.6% projected share … Isaiah Likely had 11 targets in Week 6, caught six for 99 yards and a score, and has a 24.1% projected share at $5,300 … Cam Skattebo ($5,100) should get about 13 carries, but he catches almost nothing, and no team on the slate is expected to score fewer points than the Giants. He's touchdown or bust.
The total says this one drags, but the Giants' last three games averaged 135 plays. If New York falls behind early, Nabers and Likely keep getting targets.
Model Prediction: HOU 25, NYG 18
IND @ MIN
Team Totals: IND 18.7, MIN 24.1
Kyler Murray is coming off the bye. In Week 5 he went 24 of 30 for 229 yards and ran 10 times for 51. At $5,400 he's underpriced, and he should run about five times. This game projects for about two fewer plays than the average game, and neither offense plays fast in neutral situations … Aaron Jones ran 25 times for 113 yards and a score in Week 5. He should get about 13 carries and four targets at $6,200, and that receiving work keeps his floor up … Justin Jefferson caught six of seven targets for 79 yards and a score in Week 5. Jordan Addison missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable, and T.J. Hockenson is questionable with a concussion. If both sit, Jefferson's 21.8% projected share goes up, but at $7,300 he's still overpriced.
Daniel Jones threw 42 times for 269 yards, one touchdown and two picks in Week 6. He costs $4,900, and he gets the best pass rush in football … Jonathan Taylor ran 21 times for 94 yards and a score in Week 6 and added 57 receiving yards. He should get about 19 carries, but only about three targets on the third-lowest team total on the slate. At $8,000 that's a big price for a back who needs a touchdown. Minnesota played zone on 81.7% of snaps last season, more than any defense on the slate, and that tends to leave short throws open for backs, which is his best path to a bigger day … Tyler Warren missed Week 6 with a groin injury and is questionable. Keenan Allen ($4,800) caught eight of 11 targets for 82 yards without him.
Model Prediction: MIN 23, IND 18
MIA @ NYJ
Team Totals: MIA 18.6, NYJ 23.0
Geno Smith went 20 of 30 for 252 yards and a score in Week 6, and he costs $5,100 … Breece Hall (quad) is questionable, and his last game was in Week 3. Braelon Allen had 17 carries for 78 yards in Week 6. At $5,900, with about two targets a game, he's a carries-and-touchdown play … Garrett Wilson has a 22.5% projected share and gets 37.7% of the air yards at $6,500 … Adonai Mitchell is doubtful with a finger injury. Omar Cooper Jr. ($4,100) turned seven targets into six catches, 103 yards and a touchdown in Week 6. At that price we'll take the shot.
Nobody at quarterback gives you more for the money than Malik Willis at $4,700. He's coming off the bye, and in Week 5 he ran eight times for 74 yards and a touchdown. He should run about six times, the most of any quarterback this week, and that's his floor … Miami sits 8.6 points under its expected pass rate in close games, and that limits the receivers. Malik Washington ($4,900) is still a good value with a 21.5% projected share, more if Caleb Douglas sits with his ankle injury … Ollie Gordon II ran 18 times for 88 yards and a score in Week 5, but he had no targets, and Miami's 18.6 team total is second from the bottom. At $5,500 he's touchdown or bust.
No game on the slate projects for fewer plays, and both teams rank in the bottom seven in neutral pace. Expect two offenses that would rather hand off and burn clock.
Model Prediction: NYJ 21, MIA 18
CLE @ TEN
Team Totals: CLE 19.9, TEN 19.4
Deshaun Watson went 16 of 26 for 164 yards in Week 6 and ran eight times. At $5,200 he's a good value, and he should run about five times, but he plays behind the 32nd-ranked line and Tennessee's front ranks seventh. Expect an average number of plays, with the Titans the quicker of the two offenses … Quinshon Judkins missed Week 6 with an ankle injury, and he's listed as questionable. Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estimé each ran nine times without him. If Judkins plays, he should get about 12 carries and three targets at $5,400. If he sits, nobody in this backfield is worth your salary … KC Concepcion ($4,400) had six targets in Week 6 and has an 18.2% projected share … Denzel Boston ($5,400) tops the air yards list at the bottom of this piece.
Cam Ward threw only 22 times in Week 6 for 102 yards. Tennessee passes less than anyone on this slate in a close game, 10.3 points under its expected rate, so the receivers have a narrow path. Cleveland's front ranks fourth … Tony Pollard ran 19 times for 76 yards in Week 6. No back on the slate gives you more for $5,300, with about 16 carries, but he's barely involved as a receiver, so he needs the carries and a touchdown to pay off … Carnell Tate gets half of the Titans' air yards, the biggest share on the slate. He caught six of seven targets for 70 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 and costs $5,100 … Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,600) has a 19.3% projected share.
No game on the slate has a lower total.
Model Prediction: CLE 22, TEN 16. Our number is Cleveland by 5.5, while the market says 1.5.
Afternoon Window, 4:05 PM ET
DEN @ ARI
Team Totals: DEN 24.2, ARI 19.6
Bo Nix sits right behind Willis as a quarterback value at $5,000, even after he went 17 of 27 for 107 yards in Week 6. He should run about four times, and the Denver line, fourth in our ranks, should keep him clean against an Arizona front ranked 14th … J.K. Dobbins ran 17 times for 41 yards and a score in Week 6. He should get about 13 carries at $5,700, but only two targets … RJ Harvey ($5,400) is the receiving back, with about five targets … Jaylen Waddle had seven targets in Week 6 but only 24 yards. He has a 19.9% projected share at $5,500 … Courtland Sutton has 111 unrealized air yards over the last three weeks, but 94 of them came in Week 4, and he's had three targets in each game since. We're passing.
Jacoby Brissett went 24 of 35 for 218 yards and no touchdowns in Week 6. He costs $5,600, and Zach Allen and the Denver front, second in our ranks, get an Arizona line ranked 15th … Jeremiyah Love missed Week 6 with an ankle injury, and he's listed as questionable. Tyler Allgeier ran 18 times for 38 yards and Bam Knight ran 15 times for 80 without him. Don't touch this backfield until we update Love's status in Friday's article … Trey McBride has a 27.2% projected share, but at $7,400 he's overpriced … Michael Wilson ($6,200) gets 40.7% of Arizona's air yards, and there's more on him at the bottom. Denver was in man coverage on 44.6% of snaps last season, more than any defense on this slate, and man funnels the ball to wideouts like Wilson … Kendrick Bourne ($4,000) saw eight targets in both of his last two games.
The 43.9 total looks quiet, but Arizona's last three games ran 129 plays on average.
Model Prediction: DEN 23, ARI 21
Late Window, 4:25 PM ET
GB @ DET
Team Totals: GB 24.2, DET 27.1
At 51.3, this is the biggest total on the slate, and no team is expected to score more than Detroit. Jared Goff is coming off the bye. In Week 5 he went 19 of 30 for 271 yards and three touchdowns, but he's overpriced at $6,800 … Jahmyr Gibbs ran 25 times for 151 yards and two scores in Week 5 and caught five passes for 56 more. He should get about 22 carries, more than any back this week, and about six targets. He's the chalk of the slate at $9,800, and we're not fading that workload … Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 28.6% projected share at $7,800 after 11 targets in Week 5 … Sam LaPorta ($4,800) caught five balls for 88 yards and a score in Week 5 and should get about six targets … Jameson Williams ($5,800) scored twice on four targets in Week 5. He gets a third of the air yards, but that's a boom-or-bust receiver.
Jordan Love threw 41 times in Week 6 for 276 yards and a score, and he ran one in too. He's underpriced at $6,000, and plenty of people will notice … Matthew Golden turned 13 targets into six catches, 104 yards and a score in Week 6. He has a 23.0% projected share at $6,000, and he's on the air yards list below. Detroit played man coverage 40.8% of the time last season, and that tilts targets toward outside receivers like Golden … Christian Watson ($7,000) has a 20.0% projected share, and you're paying $1,000 more than Golden for less of the offense … Tucker Kraft ($4,700) had eight targets in Week 6 … Pierre Strong had 11 carries and six targets in Week 6, and MarShawn Lloyd had eight carries. That's a mess we're happy to skip.
No game on the slate projects for more plays, about 127, and that's enough volume for more than one receiver per side to hit.
Model Prediction: DET 28, GB 24
LA @ LV
Team Totals: LA 26.0, LV 21.5
No quarterback on the slate should throw more than Matthew Stafford, about 35 times. He went 25 of 33 for 222 yards and two scores in Week 6 and costs $6,400, and the league's top-ranked line protects him … Puka Nacua's 32.6% projected share leads the slate, and he costs $8,400. He caught six of seven for 80 yards in Week 6, one week after he caught 17 of 24. The field will be on him, and the field is right … Kyren Williams should get about 15 carries and five targets at $7,000. Las Vegas played zone on 79.6% of snaps last season, and zone keeps the checkdown open for a back like him. Blake Corum ran nine times and caught a touchdown in Week 6, so Kyren doesn't get all the work … Tyler Higbee ($3,500) trails only Otton as a tight end value.
Kirk Cousins threw 41 times for 313 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6 at $5,800 … Brock Bowers has a 25.0% projected share, but we'd rather not pay $7,700 for a tight end … Michael Mayer ($3,700) turned nine Week 6 targets into seven catches and 95 yards, and he's the cheaper way into this tight end room … Ashton Jeanty has had just 10 carries in both of his last two games, with six targets in both. He should get about 15 carries and five targets at $6,500 … Tre Tucker ($5,200) caught five passes for 97 yards and two scores in Week 6.
The Rams' last three games averaged 133 plays. If the Rams get ahead early, Cousins throws all second half, and Bowers and Tucker pile up targets.
Model Prediction: LA 29, LV 18. Our number is Rams by 11.4, while the market says 4.5.
Pace numbers for every game: NFL pace of play. Pass rates for every team: NFL pass rate over expectation.
Unrealized Air Yards
Unrealized air yards are how far downfield a receiver was targeted, minus what he caught. Keep feeding a guy those targets and the yards usually show up.
Denzel Boston, Browns: 189 yards of gap. Week 4: seven targets, 158 air yards, 89 receiving yards. Week 5: seven targets, 94 air yards, 46 receiving yards. Week 6: five targets, 87 air yards, 15 receiving yards. He's fallen short three weeks running, and you can still get him at $5,400. His line is the worst in football, so Watson won't always have time to find him.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals: 153 yards of gap. Week 4: 13 targets, 123 air yards, 95 receiving yards. Week 5: seven targets, 101 air yards, 30 receiving yards. Week 6: seven targets, 86 air yards, 32 receiving yards. Most of the gap came in the last two weeks, and the targets are steady. Arizona is the underdog, so the passing volume should hold.
Matthew Golden, Packers: 153 yards of gap. Week 4: seven targets, 89 air yards, 21 receiving yards. Week 5: eight targets, 109 air yards, 123 receiving yards. Week 6: 13 targets, 203 air yards, 104 receiving yards. He beat his air yards in Week 5, so this gap comes from Weeks 4 and 6. His targets went up every week, and he plays in the best game environment on the slate.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.