UFC Upset Board
Saturday, October 17
Every underdog on the next UFC card. The win bonus is most of a fighter's score, so an underdog who wins scores like a favorite who wins. Leverage compares his win chance to his projected ownership: above 1.00, the field owns him less than his chance to win says it should.
9 more players on today's board
Create a free account to see the full UFC upset board. No credit card, it takes about 10 seconds.
Win chances come from de-vigged sportsbook odds. Not financial advice. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How often underdogs win in the UFC
We checked 221 UFC cards from 2021 to 2026 against the closing odds. Underdogs won 31.0 percent of their fights, and the closing odds said 31.6 percent, so the betting market prices upsets well.
An average card had 3.15 underdog wins. At least one underdog won on 95.5 percent of cards, and three or more won on 62 percent.
An underdog who won scored 93.8 DraftKings points on average, close to the 97.7 of a favorite who won. The win bonus does most of the work.
How to use leverage in UFC DFS
Leverage divides a fighter's share of the card's win chances by his share of the projected ownership. At 1.00 the field owns him in line with his chance to win. Above 1.00 the field is light on him.
In a large tournament, an underdog the field ignores pays the most when he wins, because few lineups have him. In cash games, the safer favorites usually stay the better play.
We also tested reach, age, layoffs, striking pace and five-round fights as upset signals. None of them beat the closing odds by a reliable margin, so the board ranks by the odds and the ownership, not by a hunch.
Frequently asked questions
Is this a list of betting picks?
No. The win chances come from the sportsbooks. The board shows which underdogs the DFS field is likely to ignore relative to those odds.
What does a line move mean?
It is the change in the sportsbook win chance since we first saw the line. A move toward the underdog means money came in on him.
How often does the board update?
Every 30 minutes, with the odds and projections.