NBA Elo Ratings
2026-27 season. Last game graded: 11/12/2026. Ratings updated: 11/13/2026, 7:05 AM CT.
SA has the top NBA Elo rating at 1696 (10-2). The biggest Elo favorite on the board is HOU (89% to win, 11/13/2026).
Display only, not bet signals. The closing line beats this model, so use it to read team strength and injuries, not to pick sides. For players, see the NBA Player Index.
Upcoming games
Game date: 11/13/2026
NYaway
INDhomeNY: no rotation players out.
IND out: Tyrese Haliburton (Out (official))
MILaway
ORLhomeMIL out: Gary Trent Jr. (low minutes)
ORL out: Paolo Banchero (Out (official))
CLEaway
MIAhomeCLE out: Evan Mobley (Out (official)), Sam Merrill (Out (official))
MIA: no rotation players out.
ATLaway
CHIhomeATL: no rotation players out.
CHI out: Caleb Wilson (Out (official))
MEMaway
NOhomeMEM out: Zach Edey (Out (official)), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out (official)), Quinten Post (Out (official)), Jahmai Mashack (Out (official))
NO out: Trey Murphy III (Out (doubtful)), Trendon Watford (Out (official)), Bryce McGowens (Out (doubtful)), Bennedict Mathurin (Out (doubtful))
UTAHaway
HOUhomeUTAH out: Lauri Markkanen (Out (official)), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out (official))
HOU out: Marcus Smart (Out (official))
GSaway
SAhomeGS out: Stephen Curry (Out (official)), Brandon Williams (Out (official))
SA: no rotation players out.
PORaway
SAChomePOR out: Ja Morant (Out (official))
SAC: no rotation players out.
OKCaway
LAChomeOKC out: Chet Holmgren (Out (official)), Jalen Williams (Out (official)), Cason Wallace (Out (official)), Jaylin Williams (Out (official))
LAC: no rotation players out.
Game date: 11/14/2026
DENawayNOhomeDEN: no rotation players out.
NO: no rotation players out.
DALawayCLEhomeDAL: no rotation players out.
CLE: no rotation players out.
DETawayMIAhomeDET: no rotation players out.
MIA: no rotation players out.
BKNawayMEMhomeBKN: no rotation players out.
MEM: no rotation players out.
CHIaway
MINhomeCHI: no rotation players out.
MIN: no rotation players out.
Missing players count when Out, Doubtful, projected under 3 minutes or no longer on the team. Questionable players count as playing. Absences fill in once that date has projections.
Team ratings
| # | Team | Elo | Record | 7 days | 30 days | Season | Next season | Last game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SA | 1696 | 10-2 | +25.4 | +26.4 | +26.4 | 1618 | 11/11/2026 |
| 2 | NY | 1656 | 6-5 | +6.2 | -9.5 | -9.5 | 1593 | 11/11/2026 |
| 3 |  BOS | 1647 | 10-2 | +26.7 | +42.6 | +42.6 | 1588 | 11/11/2026 |
| 4 | OKC | 1646 | 8-4 | -18.6 | -19.7 | -19.7 | 1588 | 11/11/2026 |
| 5 | MIN | 1629 | 9-3 | +18.1 | +91.2 | +91.2 | 1577 | 11/12/2026 |
| 6 | DET | 1628 | 8-3 | -12.2 | +25.0 | +25.0 | 1577 | 11/12/2026 |
| 7 | HOU | 1607 | 9-3 | +3.2 | +61.7 | +61.7 | 1564 | 11/11/2026 |
| 8 |  LAL | 1602 | 11-2 | +18.0 | +53.5 | +53.5 | 1561 | 11/11/2026 |
| 9 | CLE | 1565 | 6-6 | -9.1 | +9.1 | +9.1 | 1539 | 11/11/2026 |
| 10 | DEN | 1565 | 6-4 | +0.9 | -6.1 | -6.1 | 1539 | 11/11/2026 |
20 more teams on the board
Create a free account to see every NBA team's Elo rating. No credit card, it takes about 10 seconds.
Ratings center on 1500. Next season is the rating pulled toward 1500 for the next season.
Track record
| Window | Games | Log loss | Brier | Margin miss | Market log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 days | 174 | 0.5822 | 0.2005 | 11.76 | 0.5382 (174) |
| 2026-27 season | 174 | 0.5822 | 0.2005 | 11.76 | 0.5382 (174) |
| 2025-26 season | 1322 | 0.5904 | 0.2022 | 11.26 | - |
| 2024-25 season | 1321 | 0.5998 | 0.2070 | 10.94 | - |
| 2023-24 season | 1319 | 0.6039 | 0.2088 | 11.01 | - |
| 2022-23 season | 1320 | 0.6415 | 0.2248 | 10.10 | - |
Lower is better. A coin flip has a log loss of 0.6931. Margin miss is the average points between the predicted and the final margin. Market log loss uses the last FanDuel price before tip on the same games.
How the NBA Elo ratings work
Every team rating starts near 1500 and moves after each game by how far the final margin beat what the two ratings expected. A blowout win over a strong team moves a rating more than a close win over a weak one. Home court is worth 40 rating points. Between seasons each rating is pulled 40% of the way back to 1500.
The model also counts who is missing. Each absent rotation player is valued by his recent game score per minute and his expected minutes. That value moves the pregame rating gap, so a team that wins without its star gains more, and the win probability for tonight drops when a key player is out.
History runs back to 2004-05. The win probability is 1 / (1 + 10^(-1.058 x gap / 400)) and the predicted margin is the gap divided by 24.6.
How accurate it is, and why it is display only
On 2,797 games from 2024-25 to 2026-27 the model had a log loss of 0.5948, against 0.6045 for the same Elo without the injury term and 0.6197 for classic Elo constants. The closing line was better at 0.5791. Against the spread it found no edge, so treat the ratings as a read on team strength and injuries, not as bet signals.
Frequently asked questions
What is NBA Elo?
A rating for every NBA team that moves after each game by how far the margin beat the expectation. Ratings center on 1500. A 100 point gap is about a 4 point favorite on a neutral floor.
How do injuries change the Elo win probability?
Each Out or Doubtful rotation player, or one projected under 3 minutes, takes his value off his team's rating for that game. Questionable players count as playing.
Should I bet the Elo favorite?
No. The closing market beats this model, so the page is display only. Use it to see team strength and who is missing.
How often does it update?
Ratings rebuild every morning in season after the previous night's games. The upcoming games board refreshes every 30 minutes from 8 AM to 7 PM Central.