High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle, PIT RB | Out | 5 | Jaylen Warren, 15.8 projected carries after 17 for 127 last week; Travis Homer, 2.4 |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
The Game
Thursday night is at Huntington Bank Field, open air and overcast at 77F with wind near 12 mph and gusts to 23, which could cost both kickers a few yards of range. Pittsburgh is favored by 2.5 on the road under a 38.5-point total, and the team totals sit at 20.5 for the Steelers and 17.5 for the Browns. Both clubs are 2-1, Pittsburgh after a 30-27 shootout with Cincinnati and Cleveland after grinding out 23-19 in Tampa and 21-18 over Carolina.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown 113 passes in three games, while Deshaun Watson has thrown 82 and carried 24 times, so Cleveland leans on its quarterback's legs where Pittsburgh leans on Rodgers' arm. Pittsburgh ran for 5.90 and 5.85 YPC off the two edges in 2025 against a Cleveland front that gave up 5.55 and 5.42 outside, and Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 22.1 DraftKings points per game to running backs through three weeks, 13th most in the league, so both backfields draw workable fronts. The Pittsburgh passing attack grades out 68 rating points behind the Cleveland pass defense, the worst unit matchup in this game, while the Cleveland tight ends sit 69 points ahead of the Pittsburgh coverage, the best one.
The over needs Warren breaking a long run on an edge, Rodgers hitting another 292-yard night, and Watson answering with his legs and Harold Fannin Jr. near the goal line. The under is a 17-13 slog where both quarterbacks check down into third-and-long, Chris Boswell kicks three field goals, and a defense outscores every receiver on the field.
Pittsburgh Steelers
DK Metcalf ($9,000) has drawn 24 targets, more than any Steeler, but he's turned them into 11 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown, and his prop lines sit at 3.5 catches and 42.5 yards against 6.0 projected targets. Cleveland has allowed 36.0 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers, but Metcalf comes up empty in close to six of every ten outcomes, so he's a large-field piece for me and stays out of my cash-game rosters. Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,000) caught all three of his targets for 58 yards in Week 1 and two of five last week, and last season he averaged 7.85 YPT against zone and 5.99 against man, which is a mild lean at best against a Cleveland defense that played zone on 54.9% of its snaps last season. Roman Wilson ($4,000) has drawn six targets in every game for 11 catches, 114 yards and a touchdown, and at $4,000 he's one of the slate's best price-adjusted receivers, which earns him a spot in my cash-game lineups. Germie Bernard ($3,200) saw eight targets in New England and one last week, so I treat him as a touchdown-or-bust dart throw.
Pat Freiermuth ($5,600) has caught 11 of 14 targets for 108 yards and a touchdown with 4.3 projected targets tonight, and Pittsburgh had multiple tight ends on the field for 41.3% of its 2025 plays, so Darnell Washington ($3,600) is on the field with him and caught three passes for 67 yards last week. Freiermuth rounds out my cash-game builds, and Washington is a cheap pivot for large fields.
Jaylen Warren ($9,600) carried 17 times for 127 yards against Cincinnati and caught three of four targets for 49 more, and with Rico Dowdle out he's in line for 15.8 carries and 4.7 targets, while his props sit at 15.5 attempts, 67.5 rushing yards and 3.5 catches. He outscores everyone on this board, he has the higher team total behind him, and his pass-game role keeps his floor playable on a night when the Pittsburgh offense stalls, so he's in every cash-game lineup I build and he's my single-entry CPT. Travis Homer ($2,600) came up from the practice squad and carried twice for 16 yards in Week 2, and he belongs in builds that bet on a second Pittsburgh back finding paydirt.
Boswell ($5,200) and Andre Szmyt both carry a 6.5 kicking points line, but Boswell's over is priced at -123 against +105 for Szmyt, so the books expect Pittsburgh's kicker to clear it more often, and that's enough to keep Boswell on my cash-game rosters at $600 more. The Steelers D/ST ($5,000) gets a Cleveland offense that scored 10 in Jacksonville, and it's the cheapest way I see to get different at CPT.
Rodgers ($9,800) completed 19 of 34 for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Cincinnati, after 40 and 39 attempts in the first two weeks, with lines of 34.5 attempts and 212.5 yards tonight. He has 12 rushing yards all season, so his floor rests on volume alone against the pass defense that grades out furthest ahead of his unit, and I'd roster him in FLEX for cash games while keeping him out of the CPT spot, where the field will overweight him.
Cleveland Browns
KC Concepcion Jr. ($6,400) leads the Browns with 20 targets, though last week's nine produced just two catches for nine yards, and he's expected to see 4.7 targets, 21.4% of the passing game, tonight. That's the most work on the Cleveland side at a mid-tier price, keeping him in play for both small- and large-field builds. Denzel Boston ($8,000) has 195 yards and two touchdowns on 15 targets, but his lines are only 2.5 catches and 35.5 yards, and $8,000 buys a receiver who busts in most of his outcomes, so I'm underweight on him everywhere.
Fannin ($7,400) caught seven of nine targets for 51 yards and both of Cleveland's receiving touchdowns last week, and David Njoku's 48 targets left with nobody added to replace them. His 4.7 expected targets line up with a 4.5-catch, 40.5-yard prop, Cleveland played with multiple tight ends on 49.9% of its 2025 plays, and the tight end edge is the widest on the field, so he's a cash-game play and the Cleveland piece I'd most like to CPT behind Watson.
Quinshon Judkins ($8,800) has 42 carries for 124 yards, 2.95 YPC, with nine catches on nine targets, and he's in line for 15.4 carries and 2.1 targets against a 16.5 attempt line. Pittsburgh gave up 5.81 YPC off right end last season, Cleveland's best lane, but a back on the lower team total with that few targets needs a touchdown to matter, so he's a large-field CPT and FLEX option and not a cash-game play. Raheim Sanders ($4,400) has caught eight of nine targets for 66 yards while carrying only four times, so he's the passing-down back and a dart throw in builds where Cleveland trails.
Szmyt ($4,600) is the cheaper kicker with the softer line, so he fits builds where Cleveland stays close. The Browns D/ST ($4,800) draws a quarterback who's thrown two interceptions in three games, and the field rarely puts it at CPT.
Watson ($9,400) has run 24 times for 105 yards, including 11 carries last week, and his lines sit at 28.5 attempts, 187.5 passing yards and 29.5 rushing yards. That rushing work gives him the steadiest floor of any Cleveland skill player, and the field puts him at CPT less than half as often as he ends up leading this game in scoring, so he's a cash-game FLEX and my large-field CPT.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | Overall | $9,600 | Dowdle is out, and Warren ran for 127 yards with four targets last week. |
| Aaron Rodgers | Overall | $9,800 | Three games of 34 or more attempts, best kept in FLEX. |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Overall | $7,400 | Nine targets last week and Njoku's work with nobody to take it. |
| Roman Wilson | Value | $4,000 | Six targets in every game at $4,000. |
| Pat Freiermuth | Value | $5,600 | 11 catches on 14 targets and on the field in two-tight-end sets. |
| Chris Boswell | Value | $5,200 | The books favor his over at the same 6.5 line as Szmyt. |
| Deshaun Watson | Leverage | $9,400 | 24 carries in three games and a thin CPT crowd. |
| Pittsburgh D/ST | Leverage | $5,000 | A 38.5 total and a Cleveland offense that scored 10 in Week 1. |
| Germie Bernard | Dart Throw | $3,200 | Eight targets in Week 2 and a long touchdown price. |
| Darnell Washington | Dart Throw | $3,600 | 67 yards last week as the second tight end. |
The Captain's Chair
My single-entry CPT is Jaylen Warren at $14,400. No player leads this game in scoring more often, the field puts him at CPT at a similar rate, and the CPT tag still leaves room for both quarterbacks, Boswell, Wilson and Freiermuth. Plenty of entries will look like mine, and I'm fine with that when the back in question has nobody left to split carries with.
In large fields I'd CPT Watson at $14,100, since his odds of leading the game in scoring run well ahead of how often the field will start him at CPT and he carries the rushing floor Rodgers lacks. To be alone, I'd put the Steelers D/ST at CPT for $7,500, a spot almost nobody will use in a game with a total this low.
Past first-place lineups offer two useful guides for this game. Nearly half of winners, 48%, played both quarterbacks, and since Rodgers and Watson are priced $400 apart, I'm comfortable taking both in most builds. 61% of winners carried a kicker or a defense, and in a 38.5-point game Boswell and the Steelers D/ST are lineup pieces, not punts.
Stack Ideas
CPT Jaylen Warren, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Chris Boswell, Roman Wilson, Pat Freiermuth.
The single-entry build, Pittsburgh controlling it on the ground with Watson as the bring-back, at $48,400.
CPT Deshaun Watson, Harold Fannin Jr., Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard.
The shootout, betting Watson runs and throws Cleveland past its total and Rodgers keeps pace through Metcalf, at $47,500.
CPT Harold Fannin Jr., Deshaun Watson, KC Concepcion Jr., Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Darnell Washington.
Cleveland falls behind and throws to Fannin near the goal line, with Warren and Metcalf having put Pittsburgh ahead early, at $49,100.
CPT Pittsburgh D/ST, Jaylen Warren, Aaron Rodgers, Chris Boswell, Quinshon Judkins, Roman Wilson.
Pittsburgh wins a low-scoring game on field goals and a turnover or two, with Judkins as the Cleveland piece, at $44,900.
CPT Roman Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, Deshaun Watson, Harold Fannin Jr., Chris Boswell.
A $6,000 CPT that buys both quarterbacks, the top back and Fannin, betting Wilson's steady targets turn into a long touchdown, at $47,400.
Model Recommended Bets
Our number has Pittsburgh winning 21.7 to 17.7, a 39.4-point game against the posted 38.5, and two markets clear our threshold.
Over 38.5 (-105) is a lean. Our over number is 52.2% against a devigged 48.9%, a 3.3-point gap, after Pittsburgh's last game finished with 57 points and Cleveland's Tampa win with 42.
Pittsburgh moneyline (-144) is thinner. The Steelers win in 60.3% of our runs against 57.4% devigged, a 2.9-point gap, and I wouldn't pay more than -144.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Germie Bernard at +1000 to +1100 is the one long shot I like. We have him scoring in 12.2% of games against a devigged 7.3% from three books, built on eight targets in Week 2 and a Pittsburgh receiver room that rotates behind Metcalf. Our workload numbers are still partly built on summer expectations after only three games, and with only one side of this market posted anywhere, I'm treating the size of that gap loosely.
Going the other way, Jaylen Warren at -105 to -111 is priced at 42.9% against our 37.7%, which makes him too short for me even with Dowdle out. Raheim Sanders at +575 to +650 sits at 11.9% against our 8.8%, and Aaron Rodgers at +1200 to +1600 is at 6.0% against our 2.8%, a price I won't touch on seven carries all season.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
If I'm limited to a single lineup tonight, Warren goes in the CPT spot and Rodgers, Watson, Boswell, Wilson and Freiermuth fill the FLEX, which gets both quarterbacks onto the roster behind the back with the best chance to lead the game in scoring and still leaves $1,600 on the table.
Before lock I'm watching the wind at Huntington Bank Field, since gusts holding near 23 mph would move me further toward Warren and Watson and off both kickers.
For large fields, Watson and the Steelers D/ST are where I'd spread my CPT exposure, because the field will pile onto Warren and Rodgers in that spot and a $5,000 defense in a 38.5-point game is cheap insurance against a slog.
Tools used for this slate
Start with this week's NFL DFS projections for salaries, workloads and CPT pricing, then run each stack above through the free NFL showdown lineup optimizer to check it against the cap.
NFL Elo ratings by unit flagged the Cleveland tight end edge and the Rodgers problem, NFL run gap efficiency pointed Warren and Judkins to the edges, NFL defense vs position showed what the Pittsburgh run defense has allowed, NFL coverage splits by receiver framed the Pittman lean, NFL personnel groupings explained both two-tight-end rooms, and NFL vacated targets tracks the Njoku work that landed on Fannin.
NFL weather and roof status has the wind at Huntington Bank Field, live NFL odds and totals carries every line and prop quoted here, and the NFL DFS hub ties it together. Check them again once the inactives post.