The Game
Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for Baltimore tonight, with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both out, and he went 10-for-21 for 91 yards and an interception in relief at Buffalo. The books moved hard: Jacksonville is laying 9.5 to 10 points on the road, and the 39.5 total leaves Baltimore with about 15 points and the Jaguars near 25. M&T Bank Stadium is open air, and the forecast is about 68 degrees with little wind. I'd expect about 120 plays, two fewer than a typical game. Neither offense hurries in neutral script: Baltimore is 26th and Jacksonville 30th, per the NFL pace of play board.
Jacksonville has the easier road. Baltimore gives up 36.71 DK points per game against receivers over eight games, eighth most, and the biggest unit gap anywhere in this game is the Jaguars receivers against the Ravens pass defense. Baltimore's wideouts get a soft draw too, since Jacksonville allows 38.41 per game to receivers over seven games, fourth most. Henry gets the opposite draw, because the Jaguars allow the fewest DK points in the league to running backs, 17.09 per game over seven games.
The night opens up if Jacksonville scores early and Fagnano has to throw 35 times, because that turns Zay Flowers and the Baltimore backups into volume plays and pushes the total past 45. It closes down if the Jaguars lead by two scores at halftime, hand off to Bhayshul Tuten or Chris Rodriguez Jr. and let Cam Little kick, while the Jacksonville rush takes Fagnano down on third downs.
Game Overview
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| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley, BAL QB | Out | 10 | Joe Fagnano, who threw 21 of Baltimore's 26 passes in Week 8 |
| Lamar Jackson, BAL QB | Out | 10 | Joe Fagnano, priced at a 162.5-yard passing line |
| Bhayshul Tuten, JAX RB | Questionable (Ankle) | 8 | Chris Rodriguez Jr., about 13 carries if Tuten sits; Ameer Abdullah, about six |
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | Overall | $10,600 | Over 300 passing yards in Weeks 5 and 6, then three scoring throws on 14 attempts in Week 8. |
| Parker Washington | Overall | $9,400 | Close to seven targets and a third of the air yards, against a pass defense that gives up plenty to wideouts. |
| Zay Flowers | Overall | $10,400 | 41 targets over Weeks 4 to 7, and the only Baltimore receiver with a full-time job. |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Value | $3,400 | The lead runner at a backup's salary if Tuten sits. |
| Cam Little | Value | $5,400 | The bigger kicking line by a wide margin, for the big favorite. |
| Justice Hill | Value | $3,200 | Eight targets last week, and Baltimore should be chasing. |
| JAX DST | Leverage | $8,700 CPT | A rush with a clear edge on the Baltimore line and a backup quarterback behind it. |
| Zay Flowers | Leverage | $15,600 CPT | The backup quarterback keeps people away from him at CPT. |
| Mark Andrews | Leverage | $4,400 | Four looks in back-to-back weeks, at a salary few lineups will spend on a Baltimore tight end. |
| Nate Boerkircher | Dart Throw | $1,600 | Two touchdowns on five targets across Weeks 5, 6 and 8. |
| Josh Cuevas | Dart Throw | $1,200 | Four grabs and a touchdown against Cleveland, and the cheapest way into Baltimore's passing game. |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Jacksonville's rush against the Baltimore line is the first thing I checked. The Jaguars front is 22nd in our DL ranks, but the Ravens line it faces is 27th. Josh Hines-Allen has 13 pressures and two sacks, and Travon Walker has three sacks and 11 pressures but is questionable with a rib injury. The Jaguars get pressure on 24.9% of dropbacks, and Baltimore has let its quarterbacks get hit on 26.4% and sacked on 8.8%. That takes a chunk out of Fagnano's floor and makes the JAX DST ($5,800) a real FLEX play with a CPT case.
When Jacksonville has the ball, its line holds the upper hand. Baltimore's front is 27th and the Jaguars line is 15th, with every one of its starters available. Mike Green leads the Ravens in sacks, and Tavius Robinson, who was tied with him, is on IR. Baltimore gets pressure on 21.9% of dropbacks, close to the 22.0% Jacksonville allows, so the BAL DST ($3,000) is a thin play that needs turnovers. The NFL OL vs DL matchups page has both directions.
Run Game Matchup
The Jaguars line is 13th in run blocking, and Tuten ($9,800) runs into a Baltimore run defense ranked fourth. Jaguars backs average 4.42 yards a carry, and the Ravens allow 3.75 to backs, which means his volume has to produce the score. Derrick Henry ($10,200) has it worse: Baltimore's line is 11th, the Jacksonville run defense is fifth, and the Jaguars hold backs to 3.29 yards a carry against the Ravens' 4.31.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Parker Washington ($9,400) caught six of nine targets for 124 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5, then drew 11 targets the week after. He saw only two in the Week 8 rout of the Colts, because Jacksonville stopped throwing early. Seven targets feels right for him, roughly 21% of the throws and a third of the team's air yards, with his lines at 4.5 receptions and 63.5 yards. Washington's 2025 numbers were 9.53 yards a target against zone and 7.31 against man, and Baltimore's new defensive coordinator ran a Miami defense that played zone on 72.5% of its snaps last season. His range has a long right tail, and that tail is why I'd pay $14,100 to captain him. He's the CPT in Build 2 and a FLEX in Build 1 and Build 5.
Jakobi Meyers ($7,000) turned 10 targets into five catches for 83 yards against Houston, then saw three in Week 8. About five targets looks right, with lines of 3.5 receptions and 39.5 yards. He's a fine FLEX next to Lawrence, and he's in Build 2. Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,400) has drawn two or three targets every week for a month and a 12.5-yard receiving line, so the salary is wrong and I left him out of every build. Josh Cameron ($2,800) and Travis Hunter ($2,400) are filler, with Hunter set at 1.5 receptions.
Brenton Strange ($7,400) caught seven passes in each of Weeks 4 and 5 and drew seven targets in Week 6, then caught both of his looks for 55 yards in the blowout. Five targets, about 16% of the throws, is my number, near his 3.5-reception line and 35.5 yards. Baltimore allows 13.53 DK points per game against tight ends over eight games, a middle-of-the-league number, and Build 1 uses him. Nate Boerkircher ($1,600) caught a touchdown in Week 6 and another in Week 8 on one or two targets each time, which makes Boerkircher a touchdown-or-bust dart.
In Week 8, Tuten ($9,800) ran 16 times for 104 yards, found the end zone, and caught both targets for 55 yards and another touchdown. He's questionable with an ankle injury, and the books price Rodriguez to score as often as Tuten tonight, which tells me they aren't sure he handles a full game. If he's active, I expect about 17 carries. If he sits, Rodriguez ($3,400) gets about 13 and Ameer Abdullah ($1,000) about six. Rodriguez had 11 carries for 55 yards against Houston and scored against the Colts, and his $3,400 salary is what changes what the rest of the roster can afford. I hold Tuten to Build 2 and use Rodriguez in Builds 3, 4 and 5.
Cam Little ($5,400) carries an 8.5 kicking line at the only book that lists one, nearly double the Baltimore kicker, and he kicks for a 9.5-point favorite. Four of my builds use him. The JAX DST ($5,800) is my defense, and it's the CPT in Build 5.
Trevor Lawrence ($10,600) threw for 331 yards in Week 5 and 306 with four touchdowns in Week 6, then went 10-for-14 for 210 yards and three scores in Week 8 before the backups took over. He should throw about 30 times and run three or four, with a 234.5-yard passing line and 12.5 rushing yards. Baltimore allows 18.05 DK points per game against quarterbacks, middle of the pack. He's my cash-game FLEX, my single-entry captain, and Builds 1 through 4 all use him.
Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers ($10,400) drew 10, 9, 11 and 11 targets in Weeks 4 through 7, including eight catches, 137 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati. Then he caught none of five targets at Buffalo once Fagnano came in. Seven targets still looks right, roughly 23.5% of Baltimore's throws and a third of the air yards, with lines at 4.5 receptions and 48.5 yards. If Baltimore trails all night, most of those throws go to him, and that makes him my large-field captain in Build 3 at $15,600. He's also a FLEX in Build 4.
Rashod Bateman ($3,800) caught one of three targets for 22 yards in Week 8, and Ja'Kobi Lane ($4,000) drew five targets in each of Weeks 6 and 7 before one at Buffalo. Both sit at 1.5 receptions. They're long-shot darts with a backup quarterback, and neither made my builds.
Mark Andrews ($4,400) drew four targets in back-to-back games, with three catches for 14 yards at Buffalo. About four targets fits, with lines of 2.5 receptions and 18.5 yards. Jacksonville allows 10.96 DK points per game against tight ends over seven games, eighth fewest, but a backup quarterback tends to throw to the big target over the middle. He's in Build 3. Josh Cuevas ($1,200) caught four balls for 44 yards against Cleveland, one of them a touchdown, and he's the cheap tight end in Build 4.
Henry ($10,200) ran 17 times for 45 yards against Cincinnati and 11 times for 53 yards at Buffalo, with a touchdown. About 17 carries is right, close to his 17.5-carry line and 67.5 rushing yards, but no skill player in this game faces a harder matchup. His outcomes bunch low with a thin tail, so he needs a touchdown to matter, and I use him once at CPT in Build 4 and once in the FLEX in Build 5. Justice Hill ($3,200) drew eight targets at Buffalo, the most on the team, and he plays when Baltimore chases. Lines of 2.5 receptions and 14.5 receiving yards back that up, and Build 1 uses him.
Jake Moody ($4,800) kicks for Baltimore with Tyler Loop on IR. He didn't dress last week, the books list him at 4.5 kicking points, and I'd hold him to a single large-field lineup. My builds leave him out. The BAL DST ($3,000) is in Build 2.
Fagnano ($8,400) threw 21 of Baltimore's 26 passes in Week 8 and ran three times. He should throw about 27 times with a 162.5-yard passing line, against a Jacksonville defense that allows 16.74 DK points per game against quarterbacks. I'd play him for the volume and nothing else, so he's a FLEX in Builds 1, 3, 4 and 5, but he's not my cash-game quarterback.
The Captain's Chair
Lawrence at $15,900 is my single-entry captain. My numbers make him the right captain about one time in four, more than any other player in the game, and the field will start fewer lineups with him than that. Build 1 puts Washington, Strange and Little around him, adds Fagnano and Hill for the catch-up yards, and leaves $300.
For large fields, my captain is Flowers at $15,600. He's the right captain about one time in 12, and the field will pick him less often than that, because a backup quarterback scares people off. Build 3 is that bet. The captain to be alone with is the JAX D/ST at $8,700, a bet on the Jaguars rush against the 27th-ranked line in front of Fagnano, and Build 5 runs that script. I'm underweight on Tuten at CPT. Plenty of the field will captain him, more than a questionable back deserves, and I don't use him there at all.
The old winning lineups agree with most of this. Of 163 winning lineups, 67% used a non-QB skill player at CPT. Three of my builds do the same. A full 93% had a quarterback somewhere and 48% had both, and four of my builds carry both Lawrence and Fagnano. And 61% made space for a kicker or D/ST, which matches the four builds tonight with Little or a D/ST. The median winner summed 235% ownership, so Build 5 runs far lighter than the usual winner on purpose.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Lawrence | Parker Washington, Joe Fagnano, Cam Little, Justice Hill, Brenton Strange | $49,700 | Single-entry pick: Lawrence throws to Washington and Strange, Little kicks for the favorite, and Fagnano and Hill pile up yards while Baltimore chases. |
| 2 | Parker Washington | Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten, Jakobi Meyers, Cam Little, BAL DST | $49,900 | Tuten plays, Washington wins downfield, and Baltimore's defense forces a few field goals. |
| 3 | Zay Flowers | Trevor Lawrence, Joe Fagnano, Cam Little, Mark Andrews, Chris Rodriguez Jr. | $47,800 | Fagnano has to throw 35 times, Flowers and Andrews get the volume, and Rodriguez runs out the clock. |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | Trevor Lawrence, Zay Flowers, Joe Fagnano, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Josh Cuevas | $49,300 | Baltimore keeps it close on the ground, Henry finds the end zone, and Flowers and Cuevas catch the rest. |
| 5 | JAX DST | Derrick Henry, Parker Washington, Joe Fagnano, Cam Little, Chris Rodriguez Jr. | $45,500 | The Jaguars rush beats the Baltimore line, short fields turn into Little field goals, and Rodriguez finishes drives. |
Build 1 skips the cheap darts, and its last $300 can't buy anything better.
Model Recommended Bets
Jacksonville wins 24 to 15 in our game simulations, close to the market spread. Our bet list has nothing on this game.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Mark Andrews at +500 is the long shot I like best. We have him at 15.7% to score against 13.9% at the books, and a backup quarterback near the goal line tends to look for the big tight end. Travis Hunter at +700 is a smaller bet: 12.6% on our side and 10.4% in the market, on very few touches. Lawrence at +410 has to run one in, 19.3% for us against 16.7% in the market. He hasn't run for a score in any of his last four games, so I'd bet that one light.
Going the other way, the market likes two Jacksonville backups more than I do. Nate Boerkircher (+575) sits at 13.9% at the books and 10.6% for us, and Ameer Abdullah (+550) is 12.8% against our 8.1%. I'd pass on both.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
For one entry, I'm playing Build 1: Lawrence at CPT with Washington, Fagnano, Little, Hill and Strange, for $49,700.
Before lock, I'm watching Tuten. If he's inactive, Rodriguez becomes the lead back at $3,400, and I'd put him in Build 2 in Tuten's spot. If Tuten plays a full load, Rodriguez loses carries, and I'd move from him toward Hill or Andrews in Builds 3 to 5 as the salary allows.
For bigger contests I'd open with Flowers or the JAX D/ST at CPT and keep Lawrence in the FLEX. That way the best quarterback on the field is still in the lineup, and I'm not paying for the captain everyone else picks.
Tools used for this slate
The five builds started from this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer, which prices the showdown captain for every game on the board.
NFL defense against the position showed how much Jacksonville gives up to receivers and how little it allows to running backs, NFL coverage splits by receiver lined up Parker Washington against a zone-heavy Baltimore plan, and NFL Elo ratings by unit flagged the Jaguars receivers against the Ravens pass defense as the widest gap in the game.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed a mild night at M&T Bank Stadium, live NFL odds and totals carries the spread and the touchdown prices, and the NFL DFS hub ties it all together.