High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams, CHI QB | Out | 10 | Tyson Bagent threw 9 of Chicago's 35 Week 2 passes; Case Keenum is the other option |
| Dallas Goedert, PHI TE | Out | 6 | DeVonta Smith, 33.2% projected target share; Makai Lemon, 17.6% |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
The Game
Monday night is at Soldier Field, open air under a clear 62F sky with wind near 5 mph, so the weather won't touch either passing game. Philadelphia is a 3.5-point road favorite under a 41.5-point total, which leaves team totals near 22.5 for the Eagles and 19.0 for the Bears. Philadelphia has won both games by a combined six points, 24-22 over Washington and 24-20 in Tennessee, while Chicago dropped 59 on Carolina in the opener and then managed three points against Minnesota, and Caleb Williams is out tonight.
The Eagles' receivers and quarterback grade out 44 and 40 rating points ahead of the Chicago units that defend them, but the Chicago backfield owns the widest gap on the field at 47 points over the Philadelphia run defense. Chicago also ran for 6.70 YPC off right end in 2025 against a Philadelphia defense that gave up 5.61 on that side, while the Eagles' best lanes last season were both edges against a Bears front that leaked 5.58 and 6.09 YPC outside. I expect Philadelphia to throw it to DeVonta Smith and Chicago to lean on D'Andre Swift until the score says otherwise.
This game gets past 45 if Jalen Hurts repeats his Tennessee volume and Chicago keeps up through Swift and Luther Burden III. The low-scoring version is a 20-13 grind where the Bears' quarterback can't move the chains, Jake Elliott attempts three field goals, and one of the two defenses outscores every skill player.
Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith ($10,600) caught 10 of 13 targets for 117 yards and a score against Tennessee, a 38.2% share of the Eagles' targets, and he projects for 9.6 targets tonight with the books at 5.5 catches and 73.5 yards. Goedert is out, which pushes his projected share to 33.2%, and his 2025 split ran 10.98 YPT against zone and 7.07 against man with Chicago playing zone on 69.4% of its snaps, which I treat as a lean from last season only. His range runs higher than anyone's on this board and he finishes as the top scorer more often than any other player, so I'm using him in all of my cash-game lineups and captaining him on my single entry.
Dontayvion Wicks ($4,400) has caught seven of 10 targets for 147 yards and a score in two games, and he projects for 4.7 targets with the books at 3.5 catches and 41.5 yards. Nobody priced above $1,000 turns in a big night relative to his salary more often, and at $4,400 he's the Philadelphia receiver I'd pair with any expensive CPT. Makai Lemon ($4,200) has four catches for 9 yards on five targets, but he absorbs part of the Goedert work at 5.1 projected targets, keeping him in play as a pivot off Wicks. Johnny Mundt ($2,200) takes over the tight end snaps after catching two of three for eight yards last week, and Darius Cooper ($2,000) turned one of his two catches in Tennessee into a touchdown, so both are touchdown-or-bust dart throws.
Saquon Barkley ($10,000) carried 15 times for 83 yards in the opener and only four times for nine yards in Tennessee, where Tank Bigsby ($5,000) took 13 carries and a touchdown, but Barkley was a full participant Friday after the stinger and the books have him at 17.5 attempts and 72.5 yards. He projects for 13.4 carries and 2.9 targets, and the field will captain him well beyond how often he tops this game, so I'll roster him in FLEX and rarely at CPT. Bigsby only matters in builds where Philadelphia runs out the clock, and Will Shipley ($3,400) was limited Saturday with a foot and adds little.
Elliott ($4,800) has a 7.5 kicking points line against 6.5 for Cairo Santos, at $200 more, and he busts less often than any Philadelphia player besides Hurts, so he's in my cash-game builds. At $5,200, the Eagles D/ST draws whichever Chicago quarterback starts, though it costs $1,200 more than the other unit.
Hurts ($10,800) completed 26 of 37 for 264 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions last week, and he projects for 28.8 attempts and 6.8 carries with the books at 218.5 passing yards and 24.5 rushing yards. He busts less often than any player priced above $1,000 and takes the sneaks for an offense that scored seven times up the middle in 2025, so I want him on all my cash-game rosters and I'd captain him behind Burden in bigger fields.
Chicago Bears
Burden ($7,600) caught five of five for 63 yards in the opener and three of seven for 32 against Minnesota, and he projects for 6.2 targets with the books at 3.5 catches and 37.5 yards. Chicago let DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus walk with 150 targets between them and added nobody, and Burden projects for the largest share of the passing game at 21.4%, which is part of why his CPT crowd looks too small for how often he tops this game. I'd use him in large-field builds where Chicago trails and leave him off cash-game rosters while the quarterback is unsettled.
Kalif Raymond ($3,800) has 14 targets across two games, most on the team, with 13 catches for 124 yards, and DraftKings still prices him like a return man, so he's my top Chicago value. Rome Odunze ($7,400) has five catches for 95 yards on seven targets and projects for 5.0, and $7,400 is a lot to pay for that, so I only use him in bigger contests when I want a cheaper route than Burden.
Colston Loveland ($7,000) has one catch for three yards on five targets, and the Chicago tight ends against the Philadelphia defense grade out 40 rating points underwater, the worst spot on the field. Chicago lined up with at least two tight ends on 45.6% of its 2025 snaps, so Cole Kmet ($3,000) and Sam Roush ($600) split the work behind him, and Roush's three targets last week make him the cheapest real body on the slate.
Swift ($9,600) ran 18 times for 124 yards and three touchdowns in Carolina, then carried 16 times for 45 yards and caught all five targets for 54 yards against Minnesota, and he projects for 16.2 carries with the books at 14.5 attempts and 60.5 yards. His backfield draws the widest positional edge on the field, and with a backup quarterback under center the offense should run through him, so I want him in cash-game lineups and he's a real CPT option in builds where Chicago keeps it close. Kyle Monangai ($5,600) was a full participant Friday with the knee, has 20 carries for 147 yards and a score, and projects for 9.3 carries against a 9.5 line, which makes him a strong mid-tier pivot.
Santos ($4,600) has the smaller kicking points number and the smaller price, and I'd only use him in builds where Chicago stays within a score. At $4,000, the Bears D/ST finishes as the top scorer almost four times as often as the field uses it at CPT, and Hurts threw two interceptions last week.
Caleb Williams is out, and Chicago hasn't named his replacement. Tyson Bagent ($8,800) cleared the concussion protocol Sunday and carries no designation after throwing 9 of the team's 35 passes against Minnesota, while reports Sunday had Case Keenum ($8,400) in line to start, and the books have posted passing lines on both. I'm leaving the Chicago quarterback out of every build below until the inactive list comes out near 6:45 PM ET, and neither one belongs in a cash-game lineup before then.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | Overall | $10,600 | 13 targets last week and Goedert's work on top of it. |
| Jalen Hurts | Overall | $10,800 | Busts less often than anyone above $1,000, and he takes the sneaks. |
| D'Andre Swift | Overall | $9,600 | A lead back for an offense starting a backup quarterback. |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Value | $4,400 | 147 yards on 10 targets across two games. |
| Kalif Raymond | Value | $3,800 | Leads Chicago in targets at a return man's price. |
| Jake Elliott | Value | $4,800 | His kicking line sits a full point above Santos. |
| Luther Burden III | Leverage | $7,600 | The biggest projected share of 150 vacated targets, and a thin CPT crowd. |
| Chicago D/ST | Leverage | $4,000 | Hurts threw two picks last week and the field ignores this unit up top. |
| Sam Roush | Dart Throw | $600 | Three targets last week in a two-tight-end offense. |
| Darius Cooper | Dart Throw | $2,000 | Caught a touchdown in Tennessee. |
The Captain's Chair
My single-entry CPT is DeVonta Smith. He finishes as the top scorer in this game more often than anyone else, the field lands on him at about that same rate, and $15,900 at CPT leaves room for Hurts, Swift and Elliott in FLEX. I expect more CPT entries on him than on anyone tonight, and I'll accept a shared lineup before I bet against a receiver who drew 13 targets and just lost Goedert as a rival for them.
In large fields I'd rather start with Luther Burden III at $11,400, which still fits Hurts and Smith and draws a thin CPT crowd. To be alone, I'd use the Chicago D/ST, which hardly anyone puts at CPT, and at $6,000 it leaves room for every expensive name.
Two numbers from past first-place lineups matter tonight. 93% of winners had a quarterback somewhere, and with the Chicago job unsettled, Hurts fills that spot in most of my builds. Only 8% of winners spent the full $50,000 and 24.7% finished with at least $2,000 unspent, so I'm comfortable with Wicks, Raymond or Roush in the last FLEX spot instead of a fourth big salary.
Stack Ideas
CPT DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift, Jake Elliott, Dontayvion Wicks, Kalif Raymond.
The single-entry build, Philadelphia's passing game on top with Swift and Raymond from Chicago, at $49,300.
CPT Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Makai Lemon, Cole Kmet.
The shootout, betting Hurts throws 37 times again and Chicago answers through the air, at $48,600.
CPT Luther Burden III, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Rome Odunze, Cairo Santos, Kalif Raymond.
Chicago falls behind early and throws to catch up, with Hurts and Smith as the scoring that built the lead, at $48,600.
CPT Philadelphia D/ST, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, Jake Elliott, Kyle Monangai.
Philadelphia controls it against a backup quarterback and Barkley runs out the clock, with Monangai on the Chicago side, at $49,600.
CPT Chicago D/ST, D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Cairo Santos, DeVonta Smith, Luther Burden III.
Chicago wins ugly on the ground and takes the ball away from Hurts, with Smith as the only Eagle, at $44,000.
Model Recommended Bets
Our number comes out to a 47.9-point game with Chicago up by half a point, six points above the posted 41.5, but our team-level numbers don't account for a backup quarterback in Chicago, so I'd keep both plays below small.
Over 41.5 (-108) is a thin lean. We have the over at 52.9% against a devigged 49.6%, a 3.3-point gap from two offenses that scored 59 and 24 in their best games, and I'd want 41.5 rather than 42.5.
Chicago moneyline (+194) is the other. The Bears win in 36.5% of our runs against 32.7% devigged, a 3.8-point gap on a home underdog with the best positional edge on the field in its backfield, and I'd shop for the +194.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Tank Bigsby at +475 to +600 is the long shot I like best. We have him finding the end zone in 16.0% of games, above a devigged 12.8% from three books, and he took 13 carries and a touchdown in Tennessee while Barkley carried four times, so the short-yardage work isn't settled. Makai Lemon at +400 to +430 sits at 18.7% on our side against 16.7% devigged, a thinner 2.0-point gap that leans on the Goedert targets. Three weeks in, our workload numbers still lean partly on preseason expectations, and no book here offers the no side of a touchdown, so the fair figures on long prices run high and I read both of these as approximate.
The books sit above us on three tight ends. Colston Loveland at +295 to +350 is priced at 20.3% against our 16.8%, Johnny Mundt at +625 to +800 sits at 10.4% against our 7.4%, and Cole Kmet at +550 to +650 is at 11.9% against our 9.3%, and I'd pass on all of them.
Final Thoughts
My one entry is Smith at CPT with Hurts, Swift, Elliott, Wicks and Raymond in FLEX. It pairs the likeliest top scorer with his quarterback, the Chicago lead back and the two best price-adjusted receivers on the board, and it leaves $700 unused.
The inactive list near 6:45 PM ET should settle the Chicago quarterback, and until it does I build the Bears side around Swift and Raymond rather than whoever takes the snaps.
In bigger contests I shift to Burden or the Chicago D/ST at CPT, since Smith and Hurts will soak up most CPT entries, and a $4,000 defense against a quarterback room that just lost its starter costs almost nothing to try.
Tools used for this slate
Start from this week's NFL DFS projections for salaries, volume and CPT pricing, and test every stack above against the cap in the free NFL showdown lineup optimizer.
NFL Elo ratings by unit found the Chicago backfield edge and the Loveland problem, NFL run gap efficiency showed where Swift and the Eagles backs should run, NFL coverage splits by receiver framed the Smith zone lean, NFL personnel groupings explained the Chicago tight end split, and NFL vacated targets tracks the 150 targets Chicago let walk.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed a calm night at Soldier Field, live NFL odds and totals carries the line and every prop quoted here, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it together. Run them again after the inactives post.