High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne Jr., NO RB | IR | 7 | Alvin Kamara, 10.6 expected carries; Kendre Miller, 6.8 expected carries |
| Noah Fant, NO TE | Questionable (abdomen) | 4 | Juwan Johnson, 14.2% expected target share |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
| Pass rush | DL rank | Offensive line | OL rank | Line injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 12th | Saints | 21st | T Kelvin Banks Jr. (IR) |
| Saints | 21st | Falcons | 10th | LB Kaden Elliss (Out), DE Carl Granderson (Out) |
Atlanta has the better side of the trenches tonight. Cameron Thomas and Za'Darius Smith have 13 pressures and four sacks between them in three games, and the Falcons have pressured quarterbacks on 25.2% of dropbacks. They get a Saints line that ranks 21st in our OL ranks with tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. on injured reserve, in front of a quarterback averaging 47 dropbacks a game. That volume is the case for the Falcons D/ST at $3,600: more dropbacks give the rush more chances at a sack or a hurried throw, and the salary fits next to a Bijan CPT. It dents Shough's floor a little, not enough to pull him out of my FLEX pool.
The Saints rush comes in short-handed. Kaden Elliss and Carl Granderson are both ruled out, and the two of them account for more than a third of New Orleans' pressures this season, which drops the Saints from ninth to 21st in our DL ranks. Chase Young and his 3.5 sacks are what is left. He lines up across from an Atlanta line ranked 10th, so Penix should get time on the throws he makes, and that is one more reason I keep the Saints D/ST at $4,200 to large fields.
Every pass rush graded against the line it faces: NFL OL vs DL matchups
The Game
Monday night is indoors at the Caesars Superdome, so the kickers get a clean surface and no wind. New Orleans is a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 47.5, and the books hang team totals of 24.5 on the Saints and 23.5 on the Falcons. Both teams are 1-2. Atlanta scored 13 and 3 in its first two games and then put 35 on Green Bay in Michael Penix Jr.'s first start, and it comes in off extra rest after playing on a Thursday, while New Orleans lost 35-27 to Las Vegas at home after a 24-17 win in Baltimore.
Tyler Shough has thrown 56, 34 and 42 passes, so New Orleans throws a lot, and it has to, because Alvin Kamara has 51 rushing yards on 18 carries over the past two weeks. Atlanta's side runs through Bijan Robinson, and it's the best matchup in the game: New Orleans has allowed running backs 28.9 DraftKings points per game this season, sixth highest across the NFL, and the Falcons' run game holds a 95-point rating edge over the Saints' run defense, and no other position group on this field has an edge that lopsided. Last season Atlanta averaged 5.34 YPC on runs off left tackle, its best gap, and New Orleans allowed 5.37 YPC on runs to that same side of its line. Going the other way, Atlanta has given wide receivers 40.5 DraftKings points per game, the fourth-highest mark in football, and Chris Olave is the receiver who gets that matchup.
The over needs Bijan breaking a long run early and Shough answering with 40-plus dropbacks to Olave against a secondary that has already given up big weeks to receivers. The under is the Saints' running game stalling again while Penix keeps it short in his second start, which leaves Nick Folk and Daniel Carlson doing most of the scoring.
Atlanta sits last in the league in pass rate over expectation, 11.9 points below expected, but that number is mostly a backup quarterback story. With Cooper Rush and Jack Strand under center in Weeks 1 and 2, the Falcons passed 17.3 and 12.3 points below expected. With Penix back at Green Bay they were 6.6 points below expected overall and right at league average in neutral game script, so I expect more passing tonight than the season number says, which helps London and Penix. All 13 of their red zone snaps came in that 35-point win, and they called one pass, so the touchdowns still point to Bijan at CPT. New Orleans ranks eighth at 1.6 points above expected and throws more than expected in the red zone too, which helps Olave and Johnson more than Kamara.
Atlanta Falcons
Drake London ($10,000) caught nine of 10 targets for 194 yards at Green Bay with Penix under center, after drawing just nine targets across Weeks 1 and 2, and he projects for 8.2 targets tonight, about 26% of the Atlanta passing game, with prop lines of 5.5 catches and 78.5 yards. The Saints sat in zone on 83.4% of their 2025 coverage snaps, and London's 8.95 YPT versus zone beat his 6.97 versus man last season, a mild lean his way. Only three players on this board top the scoring more often than London, and the field should start him at CPT less often than that, making him a strong large-field CPT with a price that still fits Bijan and Shough.
Jahan Dotson ($3,000) has drawn 10 targets and caught four for 41 yards, with 3.5 targets expected, and Olamide Zaccheaus ($2,000), who arrived to cover the 72 targets Darnell Mooney left behind, has turned six targets into four catches for 17 yards. Zaccheaus is the cheaper way to get a piece of the Atlanta passing game, and I'd treat both as touchdown-or-bust dart throws, along with Zachariah Branch ($2,400) and his four targets all season.
Kyle Pitts Sr. ($5,800) has caught two of six targets for 20 yards in three games, and his 3.3 expected targets and 28.5-yard prop line make him hard to justify at that price. Atlanta used two-tight-end personnel on 36.5% of its plays in 2025, and Austin Hooper ($2,800) has caught four of six targets with a touchdown at Green Bay, against a New Orleans defense that has given tight ends 21.7 DraftKings points per game, third highest in football. That makes Hooper the slate's best price-adjusted tight end and the salary relief that lets me play both quarterbacks.
Bijan Robinson ($11,800) carried 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns at Green Bay, and on the season he has 66 carries for 349 yards plus 13 catches on 16 targets for 118 yards and another score. His props sit at 19.5 rush attempts, 86.5 yards on the ground and 4.5 receptions, he projects for 18.4 carries plus 6.1 targets, and he's the likeliest player on the field to post the top score by a wide margin, so he's in all of my cash-game builds and the bulk of my CPT entries. Brian Robinson Jr. ($3,800) has 30 carries for 132 yards and one score, and with Tyler Allgeier's 19 goal-line carries from last season gone, he's a cheap touchdown-or-bust dart throw on a side that throws him almost nothing.
Folk ($5,400) and Carlson ($4,800) project for about the same number of field goal tries, with Atlanta expected to score fewer touchdowns, but $600 is too much to pay for that small edge, so I'm only using Folk in large fields. The Falcons D/ST ($3,600) faces a quarterback who has thrown 132 passes through three weeks, which gives the pass rush chances, and at $3,600 it's playable salary relief in large fields.
Penix ($9,000) completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown in his first start of the season, and he projects for 30.4 attempts against a 30.5-attempt, 224.5-yard line, facing a New Orleans defense that has allowed quarterbacks 18.2 DraftKings points per game. He doesn't run, his floor depends on the throwing volume holding up, and the field rarely gets to him at CPT, so he fits as a FLEX in two-quarterback builds and as a large-field CPT pivot.
New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave ($10,800) has drawn 13, 10 and 13 targets, catching 27 for 375 yards with one score, and with 9.8 targets projected, close to 27% of the Saints' passing game, his lines sit at 6.5 catches and 85.5 yards. New Orleans receivers hold an 83-point rating edge over the Atlanta pass defense, and the Falcons are allowing receivers 40.5 per game, making Olave a cash-game anchor and a CPT in every format.
Devaughn Vele ($7,800) has caught 15 of 22 targets for 172 yards and a touchdown, but his targets have gone from nine to seven to six, and with 5.7 expected targets and a 44.5-yard line he comes up empty in about half of his outcomes. I'd rather spend that money on Juwan Johnson. Bryce Lance ($1,800) has eight targets on the season and none caught last week, so Lance is a touchdown-or-bust dart throw at $1,800.
Johnson ($7,400) caught all eight of his targets for 53 yards and two touchdowns against Las Vegas, and he has three scores on 19 targets this season, with 5.2 expected tonight against a 3.5-catch, 40.5-yard line. The Saints' tight ends hold a 78-point rating edge over the Atlanta coverage, and Atlanta gives up 17.2 per game to tight ends. Fant ($4,400) is questionable with an abdomen injury after scoring three times on 12 targets in the two games he played, and if he's inactive when the list posts at 6:45 PM ET, Johnson becomes the slate's best price-adjusted pass catcher.
Alvin Kamara ($7,000) takes over the backfield with Etienne on injured reserve, but he has 18 carries for 51 yards and six catches in Weeks 2 and 3, and Atlanta has held running backs to 13.5 DraftKings points per game, fifth fewest in the league. His 10.6 carries and 4.0 targets make him a usable FLEX when New Orleans leads, though the field gives him CPT entries more often than he tops the scoring. Kendre Miller ($5,000) has 44 yards and a score on 13 carries, and his 25.5-yard rushing line is too thin for $5,000.
Carlson ($4,800) is the cheaper kicker on the favored side and the better price-adjusted floor of the two. The Saints D/ST ($4,200) gets a quarterback making his second start of the season for an offense that scored 16 points in Weeks 1 and 2, but $4,200 is a lot for a defense in a 47.5-point game, so it's a large-field piece only.
Shough ($9,600) has completed 91 of 132 passes for 917 yards and eight touchdowns, and he's added 67 rushing yards and a score on 14 carries. He projects for 35.3 attempts against a 35.5-attempt, 257.5-yard line, he rarely posts an unusable score, and the field won't start him at CPT nearly as often as he leads the game in scoring, which puts him in my cash-game FLEX pool and makes him the CPT I like most in large fields.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | Overall | $11,800 | 194 rushing yards last week and the defense giving up the sixth-most points to backs. |
| Tyler Shough | Overall | $9,600 | 132 pass attempts through three weeks plus a high floor, $2,200 below Bijan. |
| Chris Olave | Overall | $10,800 | 36 targets through three weeks against a secondary allowing big weeks to receivers. |
| Juwan Johnson | Value | $7,400 | Three touchdowns this season and more targets if Fant sits. |
| Austin Hooper | Value | $2,800 | Two-tight-end looks against the third-most generous defense to the position. |
| Daniel Carlson | Value | $4,800 | The cheaper kicker on the favored side. |
| Drake London | Leverage | $10,000 | 194 yards in Penix's first start and a CPT crowd thinner than his ceiling. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Leverage | $9,000 | The cheaper quarterback, overlooked at CPT next to Shough. |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Dart Throw | $2,000 | The cheapest route into the Atlanta passing game. |
| Bryce Lance | Dart Throw | $1,800 | Eight targets this season and salary relief for a two-quarterback build. |
The Captain's Chair
Bijan at $17,700 gets my single-entry CPT spot. Nobody on this board leads the game in scoring as often, and even though the field starts him at CPT more than anyone else, he's the correct CPT more often still, with enough room at his price for Shough, Olave, Carlson, Hooper and Zaccheaus.
For large fields, Shough at $14,400 is my CPT, since he's the second-likeliest top scorer on the board and the field starts him at CPT far less often than that. To be alone, I'd go with London at $15,000, whose 194-yard game with Penix hasn't moved the field onto him at CPT the way it should have.
I'm leaning on three findings from 163 first-place lineups. 67% of winners captained a non-QB skill player, which matches Bijan, Olave and London sitting near the top of my CPT list. Both quarterbacks showed up in 48% of winning lineups, and Penix and Shough sit $600 apart, so most of my lineups carry both. Only 8% of winners spent all $50,000, and a quarter finished with at least $2,000 left over, so leaving money on the table with Hooper and Zaccheaus beats forcing Vele in.
Stack Ideas
CPT Bijan Robinson, Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Daniel Carlson, Austin Hooper, Olamide Zaccheaus
The single-entry build, Atlanta winning on the ground while Shough and Olave answer as the bring-back, at $47,700.
CPT Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Drake London, Michael Penix Jr., Austin Hooper, Bryce Lance
The shootout, with both quarterbacks and both top receivers going over their lines indoors, at $48,800.
CPT Drake London, Michael Penix Jr., Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus
New Orleans builds the lead through Olave and Johnson and Penix throws 40 times to catch up, the lower-owned CPT build, at $47,200.
CPT Chris Olave, Tyler Shough, Bijan Robinson, Daniel Carlson, Austin Hooper, Bryce Lance
The Saints control it through the air and Bijan is the only Atlanta piece that keeps scoring, at $47,000.
CPT Daniel Carlson, Nick Folk, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Shough, Saints D/ST, Chris Olave
The under build, where both offenses stall inside the 30 and Carlson hits four field goals, at $49,000.
Model Recommended Bets
New Orleans wins 22.4 to 20.3 in our runs, a 42.7-point game against the posted 47.5, and two markets pass our threshold.
Under 47.5 (-105) is the stronger play. The game finishes under in 64.4% of our runs, compared with a devigged 50.0%, a 14.4-point gap, built on a New Orleans run game that has Kamara at 51 yards on 18 carries over two weeks and an Atlanta offense that scored 16 points in its two games before Penix took over.
New Orleans moneyline (-122) is a thin lean. The Saints win in 56.6% of our runs against 53.7% devigged, a 2.9-point gap, so I'd keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Nothing on the long end of this board is worth a bet tonight. Austin Hooper at +650 to +750 comes closest, where we have him scoring 11.6% of the time against a devigged 10.4%, and Zachariah Branch at +1000 to +1200 rates 8.0% against 6.9%, but gaps that small at prices that long fall inside the books' hold, and three games of data haven't moved our usage numbers far off their preseason baselines, so I'll pass.
In the other direction, the books price Bryce Lance (+475 to +575) at 13.9% while we have 11.2%, Kendre Miller (+270 to +320) at 22.5% against our 19.3%, and Kyle Pitts Sr. (+300 to +340) at 20.6% against our 18.3%. Alvin Kamara at +120 to +135 is a fade at the short end, 37.7% against our 34.1%, for a back averaging under three yards a carry over the past two weeks.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
If I'm entering a single lineup, Bijan goes at CPT with Shough, Olave, Carlson, Hooper and Zaccheaus filling the FLEX spots. That roster pairs the best matchup in the game with the Saints' passing game as the bring-back, with $2,300 unspent.
Until inactives post, the Fant decision is my main worry, because an inactive Fant moves Johnson ahead of Vele in my cash-game builds.
In big tournaments I'm putting Shough and London at CPT more than anyone else, because the crowd will pile onto Bijan and Olave there, and both still fit with Bijan as a FLEX.
Tools used for this slate
Start with this week's NFL DFS projections for salaries, workloads and CPT pricing, then run each stack above through the free NFL showdown lineup optimizer to check it against the $50,000 cap.
NFL Elo ratings by unit found the Bijan mismatch and the Saints' receiver and tight end edges, NFL defense vs position showed what both defenses have allowed through three weeks, NFL run gap efficiency pointed Atlanta off left tackle, NFL coverage splits by receiver backed the London zone lean, NFL personnel groupings put Hooper on the field in two-tight-end sets, and NFL vacated targets tracks the Mooney targets and Allgeier goal-line work Atlanta had to replace.
NFL weather and roof status confirms the game is under the Superdome roof, live NFL odds and totals carries every line and prop quoted here, and the NFL DFS hub ties it together. Check them again once the Fant news breaks.