High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts, PHI QB | IR | 10 | Tanner McKee, threw all 45 Philadelphia passes in Week 6 |
| DeVonta Smith, PHI WR | Out | 9 | Makai Lemon, about 23% of the targets at $3,800 |
| Saquon Barkley, PHI RB | Questionable (hamstring) | 8 | Dameon Pierce, 12 carries and a touchdown in Week 6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks, PHI WR | Out | 7 | Darius Cooper, about four targets at $3,200 |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Dak Prescott gets a clean pocket tonight. The Dallas line ranks third, the Philadelphia rush ranks 29th, and Nolan Smith, one of the two Eagles with three sacks, sits out with a concussion. Jalen Carter is the other one, with 10 pressures to go with his three sacks, and Jalyx Hunt is questionable with a knee injury. Dallas has given up a sack on just 2.8% of dropbacks this year, which protects Dak's floor and makes the Eagles D/ST ($3,400) a thin play in most builds.
When Philadelphia has the ball, neither line has much of an edge, with the Cowboys' rush at 21st and the Eagles' line at 20th. Rashan Gary leads Dallas with 11 pressures. Philadelphia has allowed a sack on 7.4% of dropbacks, though, so I'm fine with the Cowboys D/ST ($4,000) as a FLEX in builds where Dallas jumps ahead. Both rows sit on the NFL OL vs DL matchups page.
The Game
Lincoln Financial Field is open to the sky, and tonight's forecast is clear, 58 degrees and a 5 mph breeze, so I'm not adjusting anything for weather. Dallas is favored by three on the road with a total near 45, which leaves the Cowboys around 24 points and the Eagles around 21. I'd expect roughly 126 plays, four more than a typical NFL game, mostly because the Cowboys run one of the quickest offenses in neutral game script, second on the NFL pace of play board, with Philadelphia 12th.
Dallas throws more than its situations call for, third in the league on the NFL pass rate over expectation board, and Dak dropped back for 54 attempts against Green Bay. The Philadelphia number comes with a quarterback split. With Jalen Hurts under center for the first five weeks, the Eagles threw less than expected four times, but McKee's first start in Week 6 was their most pass-heavy game of the year, 45 attempts in a 25-14 loss to Carolina. Philadelphia has allowed 39.27 DK points per game to wide receivers through six weeks, fourth most in the NFL, and our unit ratings flag the Dallas receivers against this secondary as the biggest mismatch on the field.
The game script that breaks the slate open has Dak throwing 40 times to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens while McKee chases points through Makai Lemon and Dallas Goedert. The one that buries it has Dallas up two scores at halftime, Javonte Williams grinding out the clock, Brandon Aubrey kicking field goals, and no Eagle reaching double digits.
Dallas Cowboys
Lamb ($11,000) saw 18 targets against the Packers and turned them into a 9-70 line, and two weeks earlier he caught 17 balls for 189 yards and a score on 21 looks. I expect around 10 targets tonight, a bit more than a quarter of the Dallas looks, and his lines are 7.5 catches and 78.5 yards. Only Dak wins this game as often as Lamb does, and the field won't put Lamb at CPT that often, which is why he's my single-entry captain.
Pickens ($9,000) caught six balls for 73 yards on 11 looks against Green Bay, coming off a 9-130-1 game on 13 targets at Tampa Bay. Seven or eight targets feels right, and his props are 64.5 yards on 4.5 catches. He works as a FLEX in small and large fields, and his range is wide enough that a Pickens CPT is my favorite way to bet on the Dallas passing game without the two most popular captains.
Ryan Flournoy ($5,000) turned nine targets into seven catches, 40 yards and a TD against the Packers, after five and then four targets in the two games before. Five looks is a fair number, and at $5,000 he's priced fairly for that role, though the role moves around. Jonathan Mingo ($1,000) needs a touchdown to matter.
Jake Ferguson ($4,400) managed two grabs for 13 yards on three looks against Green Bay, and his props sit at 2.5 catches and 19.5 yards. Around four targets makes him a FLEX I'd use only in big fields. Brevyn Spann-Ford ($1,800) caught four of five looks for 35 yards last week, and he's the cheap Cowboy I'd use to squeeze in the expensive names.
Williams ($10,600) has a rushing touchdown in four straight games and six over that stretch, including a 41-yard, one-score night on 11 carries against Green Bay. I'd guess 17 carries and three targets, with his rushing line at 64.5 yards on 16.5 attempts. The goal-line work is real, but he barely catches passes, and his CPT entries will outrun his real chance to lead the game in scoring, so I'm underweight on him at CPT and comfortable with him at FLEX in a Dallas win.
Aubrey ($5,400) kicks for the favorite and has a kicking points line of 7.5, a full point above Jake Elliott, so he's my kicker for builds where Dallas drives into the red zone and settles for three. The Cowboys D/ST ($4,000) has the better of the two pass rush matchups.
Dak ($10,400) went 34 of 54 for 258 yards with one TD pass against the Packers and has cleared 250 passing yards in each of his last four games. About 37 attempts is my number, and the books sit at 267.5 yards. Between the clean pocket and two receivers who can each win the night, he's my top FLEX for cash games, and in large fields he's the captain I use most.
Philadelphia Eagles
With DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks both out, Lemon ($3,800) is the top Philadelphia receiver. He drew six targets against Carolina and seven the week before, and I expect about eight tonight, close to a quarter of the Eagles' looks, with props of 38.5 yards and 4.5 receptions. At $3,800 he's the cheapest path to real volume in this game, and his CPT rate badly undersells his chance to top the scoring, so he's in four of my five builds and the CPT of one.
Darius Cooper ($3,200) scored twice on seven targets in Week 4 and caught two for 71 yards with a TD the next week before a quiet game against Carolina. He'll probably see four targets, and his range has a long right tail for this price. Elijah Moore ($800) had one catch on two targets against Carolina and is the cheapest Eagle with a real role.
Goedert ($6,400) put up 6-61 on eight targets last week after nine looks the week before, and he's off the injury report. Six or seven targets is my guess, with his lines at 5.5 catches and 49.5 yards. Philadelphia used two tight ends on 41.2% of its plays last season, so Johnny Mundt ($1,600) stays on the field too, but Mundt hasn't topped one target in any of his last three games.
Saquon Barkley's hamstring
Barkley is questionable with a hamstring injury, and he hasn't played since a two-carry Week 4. Inactives come out at 6:45 PM ET, 90 minutes ahead of the kick. The books still price him to play, with lines of 17.5 carries and 69.5 rushing yards, but I'm keeping him out of every build until he's active.
In the two games Barkley missed, Pierce ($7,600) averaged 11.5 carries and five targets (n=2), and no other back topped five carries. Goedert went from 3.5 targets a game with Barkley in Weeks 1 and 2 (n=2) to 8.5 without him (n=2), and Lemon went from 3.8 (n=4) to 6.5 (n=2). Those samples are tiny, and Smith, Wicks and Hurts all came and went in the same stretch, so I trust the direction more than the size. The receivers gained nothing from Barkley sitting. The extra work went to Pierce and the tight end. The full split is on the NFL WOWY tool.
If Barkley sits, Pierce has real work and belongs in big-field FLEX spots, and Build 5 gets more of my entries. If Barkley plays, Pierce is a $7,600 backup and I'm out on him. Goedert keeps his spot in both cases.
Elliott ($4,800) has a kicking points line of 6.5 and only fits builds where Philadelphia keeps it close. I'd pass on the Eagles D/ST against this Dallas line.
McKee ($8,600) went 26 of 45 for 215 yards with one TD pass in his first start, and I have him around 33 attempts tonight, with the books at 198.5 yards. Dallas has allowed 21.95 DK points per game to quarterbacks, sixth most in the league. He's a fine cash-game FLEX at this price, and since almost nobody will captain him, one McKee CPT build is a sensible way to get different.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | Overall | $11,000 | Drew 18 and 21 targets in two of his last three games, against a defense that's soft on receivers. |
| Dak Prescott | Overall | $10,400 | About 37 throws behind a line that should keep him upright all night. |
| George Pickens | Overall | $9,000 | Double-digit targets in three of his last four games. |
| Makai Lemon | Value | $3,800 | Smith and Wicks are out, and he should get about eight targets. |
| Darius Cooper | Value | $3,200 | Three touchdowns in the last three games, and cheap enough to fit both quarterbacks. |
| Brandon Aubrey | Value | $5,400 | A point higher than Elliott in kicking points, for the favored side. |
| Tanner McKee | Leverage | $8,600 | He threw 45 times last week, and a Philadelphia comeback runs through him. |
| Dallas Goedert | Leverage | $6,400 | Nine and eight targets in his last two games, with room for more if Barkley sits. |
| Elijah Moore | Dart Throw | $800 | The cheapest Eagle receiver with a role on a thin depth chart. |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Dart Throw | $1,800 | Caught four balls last week and only needs one red-zone look. |
The Captain's Chair
For single entry, I'm putting Lamb at CPT for $16,500. He and Dak each finish as the night's best scorer roughly once in every five games, and even as the two most popular captains, the field gets to them less often than that. I lean to Lamb for one entry because his ceiling tops the board.
In large fields I'm splitting between Dak at $15,600 and Pickens at $13,500. Dak wins as often as Lamb at a cheaper CPT price, and Pickens keeps me on the Dallas passing game without sharing a captain with half the field. I'm underweight on Williams, since people will slot him at CPT more often than his range supports. The lonely CPT is Lemon at $5,700, a cheap captain whose win rate sits well above the field's interest in him, and he frees up enough salary for Lamb, Williams and Goedert in one lineup.
Three numbers from the 163 winning showdown entries in our records matter tonight. Two thirds of those winners (67%) put a non-quarterback skill player at CPT, and four of my five builds do the same. Almost all of them (93%) rostered a quarterback, and 48% rostered both, while three of my builds pair Dak with McKee, because a 126-play game leaves room for two passers. And 61% of winners carried a kicker or defense, but only Build 3 has one, so swapping Aubrey or the Cowboys D/ST into the last FLEX spot is an easy change for anyone entering more than five.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CeeDee Lamb | Dak Prescott, George Pickens, Tanner McKee, Makai Lemon, Elijah Moore | $49,100 | Single-entry pick: Lamb has the big night, Dak keeps throwing, and McKee answers through Lemon in a close game. |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | CeeDee Lamb, Tanner McKee, Dallas Goedert, Makai Lemon, Darius Cooper | $48,600 | A shootout where Dak spreads it around and Philadelphia keeps pace through Goedert and two cheap receivers. |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | Dak Prescott, George Pickens, Makai Lemon, Brandon Aubrey, Jake Ferguson | $49,500 | Dallas pulls away on the road through the air, so five Cowboys and Aubrey's kicks carry it, with Lemon as the one Eagle. |
| 4 | George Pickens | Dak Prescott, Tanner McKee, Dallas Goedert, Ryan Flournoy, Jake Ferguson | $48,300 | Pickens wins the deep balls against a thin pass rush while McKee feeds Goedert to keep it close. |
| 5 | Makai Lemon | CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, Tanner McKee, Dallas Goedert, Dameon Pierce | $49,900 | Philadelphia wins through Lemon and Goedert, Pierce gets the backfield if Barkley sits, and Lamb and Williams keep Dallas close. |
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Dameon Pierce (+575 to +650) is the long shot I like most. We have him scoring 19.3% of the time, the devigged price across three books is 11.9%, and the gap only grows if Barkley is inactive. I'd wait for the inactives and grab the +650.
Ryan Flournoy (+310 to +370) is close to fair at 19.3% on our side and 18.5% in the market, so I'd only bet the +370. Elijah Moore (+650 to +1300) is 6.7% for us against 6.4% devigged, and the books disagree wildly on him, so the +1300 is the only number worth playing.
The market is well above us on three Eagles and a Cowboy. Darius Cooper (+235 to +290) sits at 24.5% devigged to our 13.8%, Dallas Goedert (+180 to +195) at 28.5% to 19.7%, and Javonte Williams (-155 to -170) at 52.5% to 44.1%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
If I only get one bullet, it's Build 1: Lamb at CPT with Dak, Pickens, McKee, Lemon and Elijah Moore, for $49,100.
Barkley's status is the one thing I'm watching before lock. An inactive Barkley moves Pierce into more of my builds and gives Build 5 a bigger share. If he plays, Pierce comes out and that salary goes to Cooper or Spann-Ford.
In a big field, I'd get away from the Lamb and Dak CPT builds without leaving the Dallas passing game. Pickens and Lemon at CPT both do that, and Lemon at $5,700 leaves room for Lamb and Williams in the same lineup.
Tools used for this slate
The five builds started from this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer, which handles showdown captain pricing for every game on the board.
NFL defense against the position showed how much Philadelphia has given up to wide receivers, NFL Elo ratings by unit flagged Dallas receivers against the Eagles secondary as the biggest gap, and NFL personnel splits kept Johnny Mundt on the field next to Dallas Goedert.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed a clear, calm night at Lincoln Financial Field, live NFL odds and totals has the touchdown prices, and the NFL DFS hub ties it all together.