High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts, PHI QB | IR | 10 | Tanner McKee threw all 35 Philly passes in Week 7 and should throw about 33 |
| DeVonta Smith, PHI WR | Out | 9 | Makai Lemon, target share near 19%; Elijah Moore, near 7% |
| Dameon Pierce, PHI RB | IR | 8 | Saquon Barkley, about 12 carries; Elijah Mitchell, about 6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks, PHI WR | Out | 7 | Darius Cooper, target share near 10%; Hollywood Brown, about 3 targets |
| Terry McLaurin, WAS WR | IR | 7 | Antonio Williams, target share up to about 14% from 12% |
| Treylon Burks, WAS WR | Questionable (foot) | 4 | Stefon Diggs, target share near 25% if Burks sits |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Both quarterbacks should get time tonight. Washington's front sits 28th on our pass rush board and plays without two interior rushers, Daron Payne (foot) and Javon Kinlaw (knee). K'Lavon Chaisson leads the group with 12 pressures and 2.5 sacks, and Odafe Oweh has three sacks. The Philly line ranks 20th and has all five starters, though McKee and Hurts have been sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks. That gives McKee a playable floor and leaves the Washington D/ST ($4,000) with little to work with.
Flip it around and it looks the same. Philly's front ranks 30th, Washington's line 22nd, and nobody up front is hurt. Jalen Carter has three sacks and Moro Ojomo has 10 pressures, but the Eagles get home on only 17.5% of dropbacks as a unit, so Jayden Daniels should have room to hold the ball, and I'm passing on the Philly D/ST ($3,800). Both rows are on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page, with the injured rushers marked.
Run Game Matchup
This is two weak lines against two weak run defenses. Saquon Barkley ($9,800) runs behind a Philly line 29th on our run blocking board, facing a Washington run defense ranked 28th, and Eagles backs average 3.81 yards a carry against 3.82 allowed by Washington. Rachaad White ($8,000) gets a Washington line ranked 19th against a Philly run defense ranked 21st, with Commanders backs at 3.64 a carry and the Eagles allowing about 4.3 to backs.
The Game
Northwest Stadium has no roof, but tonight should be calm and dry, near 50 degrees with wind around 5 mph. Washington is a 5.5-point home favorite and the total sits at 40.5, which puts the Commanders near 23 points and the Eagles near 19. I'd expect about 124 plays, two more than an average game, and that is where this one could surprise: the total reads like a grind, but neither offense slows things down much, with Washington 15th and Philly 16th in neutral pace on our NFL pace of play rankings.
Philly is without Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks. McKee has started the last two games, so the passing game runs through Lemon and Dallas Goedert, and the rest of the receiver room looks like a preseason depth chart. Washington comes off its bye with Daniels healthy after two straight starts, but Terry McLaurin is done for the year, which pushes more of the work to Stefon Diggs, Antonio Williams and Chig Okonkwo. Receivers have scored 40.96 DK points a game on Philadelphia over seven games, the second highest mark in the league, and tight ends have scored 21.52 a game on Washington through six, also second most. On our unit ratings, the Washington receivers against the Philly secondary is the widest mismatch on the field.
In the big version, Daniels runs for one score and throws for two more, while Philly has to chase through Lemon and Goedert. The slow one has White and Barkley trading short runs, McKee checking down, and Drew Stevens kicking more than anyone scores.
Philadelphia Eagles
Lemon ($7,000) caught seven of eight targets for 67 yards and a score in Week 7, and he's drawn six or more looks in four straight games. With Smith and Wicks out again, I'd put him near seven targets, about a fifth of what McKee throws, against props of 4.5 catches and 43.5 yards. His outcomes cluster in a modest middle with a real right tail, and at $10,500 he's a CPT the slate will skip more than it should.
Darius Cooper ($6,600) scored twice in Week 4 and turned three targets into 71 yards and a score in Week 5, but he has one catch in each game since. Three or four targets is fair, and he's a large-field FLEX at best. Hollywood Brown ($4,800) drew five targets last week and caught two for 30 yards. Elijah Moore ($2,800) caught three of his four targets over the last two games and is the cheap receiver I'd use most.
Goedert ($7,400) has seen nine, eight and seven targets over the last three weeks, catching 17 of them, and McKee looks for him first. I have him near six targets, close to his 4.5-catch and 44.5-yard props. In 2025, Goedert averaged 8.60 yards per target against zone on 58 targets and 3.83 against man on 24, and Washington lined up in zone on 68.9% of its defensive snaps last season, which tilts the coverage his way. Philly also lined up with multiple tight ends 41.2% of the time in 2025, and he stays on the field in those sets.
Barkley ($9,800) didn't play in Weeks 5 or 6 and came back to run seven times for 62 yards and a score against Dallas. With Dameon Pierce now out, I expect about 12 carries and two targets, in line with his 12.5-carry prop and 52.5 rushing yards. Last season the Eagles ran for 6.07 a carry off left tackle, and Washington gave up 6.18 there, one of the softest spots on its line. A team total near 19 and two targets make him a touchdown-or-bust piece, though. I'll use him as a large-field FLEX, and I expect far more CPT entries on him than his range supports. Elijah Mitchell ($6,800) caught three of four targets in Week 7 and should get about six carries, which doesn't justify the price.
Jake Elliott ($5,000) is lined at 5.5 kicking points, two under Stevens, and fits only builds where Philly moves the ball and stalls. I'd skip the Philly D/ST.
McKee ($8,800) went 26-for-45 for 215 yards in Week 6 and 23-for-35 for 211 last week, with one touchdown in each. His passing prop sits at 202.5, and he should throw about 33 times. He doesn't run, so his floor depends on volume. He's a FLEX in most of my builds and a fine cash-game piece at his price.
Washington Commanders
Diggs ($9,000) has seen seven, nine and seven targets in his last three games and caught a touchdown at San Francisco. With McLaurin gone, he should get about seven targets, nearly a quarter of the throws, against props of 4.5 catches and 42.5 yards. Philly gives up the second most points to receivers, and Diggs is the cleanest way into that. I'll have him in most FLEX spots and take a few CPT shots.
Antonio Williams ($6,200) drew eight looks in Week 4 and turned four looks into 50 yards at San Francisco. I'd expect four or five targets now that McLaurin is out, and his 37.5-yard prop says the books agree the role is growing. At $6,200 he's one of the better price-adjusted receivers on either side. Dyami Brown ($3,400) had 65 yards on three grabs in Week 4 but has one catch in each game since, and Treylon Burks ($5,400) has a foot injury and is listed as questionable, so I'm leaving him out.
Okonkwo ($6,400) caught all seven of his targets for 69 yards at San Francisco after six looks the week before. I'd expect four or five targets. Tight ends average only 10.46 DK points facing Philly, sixth fewest, so the matchup is harder than Goedert's, but at this price he's a solid value.
White ($8,000) ran seven times for 27 yards and caught four of five targets for 30 yards and a score at San Francisco in Week 6. With Jacory Croskey-Merritt out, he should get about 12 carries and two or three targets, matching his 12.5-carry prop. A team total near 23 and some pass-game work make him a fine FLEX, but he's not a CPT I'd chase. Jeremy McNichols ($2,000) ran five times in Week 6 and should get about four carries. He's a cheap touchdown dart. Austin Ekeler ($3,000) has run four times or fewer every week since Week 4, so he's filler.
Stevens ($4,600) is lined at 7.5 kicking points, the higher of the two, and kicks for the favorite in a low total. He's my kicker in most builds.
Daniels ($10,400) ran nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns versus the Giants in Week 5, then completed 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two scores at San Francisco. Philly has given up 20.53 DK points a game to quarterbacks, eighth most. I'd expect about 30 attempts and six or seven runs, with props of 198.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing. He's my first cash-game play, and his range runs well past everyone else's on this slate.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | Overall | $10,400 | The runs give him a floor nobody else in this game has, and two rushing scores in Week 5 show the top end. |
| Stefon Diggs | Overall | $9,000 | Seven or more targets in each of his last three games, now facing the defense that gives up the second most to receivers. |
| Dallas Goedert | Overall | $7,400 | McKee's first read, with 24 targets over three weeks and a zone defense that suits him. |
| Antonio Williams | Value | $6,200 | McLaurin's targets have to go somewhere, and Williams is first in line. |
| Chig Okonkwo | Value | $6,400 | A perfect seven catches on seven targets in his last game, at a price that leaves room for both quarterbacks. |
| Drew Stevens | Value | $4,600 | The better kicker in a 40.5 total, kicking for the favorite. |
| Makai Lemon | Leverage | $10,500 CPT | He has the WR1 role with Smith out, and few lineups will start with him. |
| Tanner McKee | Leverage | $13,200 CPT | Philly has to throw to keep up, and almost nobody will captain a backup. |
| Elijah Moore | Dart Throw | $2,800 | Three catches on four targets over two weeks, and a cheap way into a thin receiver room. |
| Jeremy McNichols | Dart Throw | $2,000 | About four carries and the short-yardage work behind White. |
The Captain's Chair
Daniels at $15,600 is the CPT for one-entry contests. He tops this game in about a third of the outcomes I look at, and he'll be captained well below that rate, which is rare for the most expensive player on the board. His legs give him a path to a big night even if Washington runs the ball and protects a lead.
For big tournaments I'd go to Lemon at $10,500. He's the top target on a team that should trail, and his odds of topping this game sit above how often people will start with him. My contrarian captain is Goedert at $11,100. He's earned 24 targets in three weeks, and Washington has given up the second most points to tight ends. I'm underweight Barkley and White at CPT, since each will be captained more often than he finishes as the night's top scorer. With two more plays than an average game projected and both offenses throwing, the pass catchers make better captains than the backs tonight.
Our archive of 163 first-place showdown lineups says three things about tonight. Only 23% of winners put a quarterback at CPT, but Daniels is the exception worth making, so Builds 1 and 2 start with him and Builds 3, 4 and 5 start with pass catchers. Of the winners, 93% carried one quarterback or more, and 48% carried both; all five of my builds have Daniels, and Builds 3, 4 and 5 pair him with McKee. And 61% used a kicker or a defense, as Builds 1 through 4 do.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | Stefon Diggs, Chig Okonkwo, Antonio Williams, Drew Stevens, Makai Lemon | $48,800 | Single-entry pick: Daniels throws to all three of his top targets, Stevens adds field goals, and Lemon gives Philly an answer. |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | Rachaad White, Chig Okonkwo, Antonio Williams, Saquon Barkley, PHI DST | $49,800 | Both teams run, Daniels works the middle of the field, and the Philly defense makes a play. |
| 3 | Makai Lemon | Jayden Daniels, Rachaad White, Tanner McKee, Dallas Goedert, PHI DST | $48,900 | Philly has to throw, and McKee feeds Lemon and Goedert while White carries Washington. |
| 4 | Stefon Diggs | Jayden Daniels, Drew Stevens, WAS DST, Tanner McKee, Makai Lemon | $48,300 | Washington controls it through Diggs, drives end in Stevens kicks, and the defense hits McKee. |
| 5 | Dallas Goedert | Jayden Daniels, Chig Okonkwo, Antonio Williams, Tanner McKee, Makai Lemon | $49,900 | Both passing games work, with Goedert finding room in the Washington zone. |
Build 1 is five Commanders deep because Washington is the favorite and its receivers face the softest pass defense in this game, while Lemon is the Philly piece most likely to score if the Eagles keep pace.
Model Recommended Bets
Our game simulations have Washington winning 21 to 19. No bet on this game cleared our threshold tonight.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
I can't find a long shot worth betting in this game. Dyami Brown at +650 sits at 12.5% on our side against 12.8% in the market, and Elijah Moore at +2200 is 4.4% on both. Darius Cooper (+500) is 12.9% to the market's 14.5%, so even that price is a little short. The one touchdown price I like is shorter: Daniels at +230 scores 33.0% of the time in our numbers against 26.9% in the market, and that's a bet on his legs, with a 36.5-yard rushing line.
Three Eagles go the other way, with the books well above us. Tanner McKee (+1300) is 6.9% at the books against our 3.4%, since he barely runs. Hollywood Brown (+525) is 13.3% to 8.9%, though only one book prices him. Eli Stowers (+1800) is 5.1% to 1.0%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
My single-entry lineup is Build 1: Daniels at CPT with Diggs, Okonkwo, Williams, Stevens and Lemon, for $48,800.
Before lock, I'm watching Burks and his foot. If he sits, Diggs and Williams pick up the extra looks and nothing in my builds changes. If he plays, he's still a large-field dart at most.
For large fields, I'd start with Lemon or Goedert at CPT and keep Daniels in the FLEX. That gets me off the Daniels CPT builds without giving up the best player in the game.
Tools used for this slate
The five builds started from this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer, which prices showdown captains for every game on the board.
NFL defense against the position showed how much Philadelphia gives up to receivers and Washington gives up to tight ends, NFL coverage splits by receiver pointed Dallas Goedert at a zone-heavy Washington defense, the NFL run gap tool found the soft spot off left tackle for Saquon Barkley, NFL personnel groupings showed how often Philly keeps two tight ends on the field, and NFL Elo ratings by unit named the Washington receivers as the biggest gap.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed a calm night at Northwest Stadium, live NFL odds and totals has the touchdown prices, and the NFL DFS hub ties it all together.