The Game
Tampa Bay has thrown 14 passes in its last two games. Baker Mayfield attempted 11 in a 43-13 win over Carolina and three in a 16-0 win over Atlanta, while the Buccaneers ran 49 and then 56 times. The books don't expect a repeat: Mayfield's attempts line sits at 29.5, Chicago is laying 6.5 at home, and the 47.5 total puts the Bears near 27 points and Tampa Bay near 21. Soldier Field has no roof, and tonight looks dry and about 47 degrees, with a 7 mph wind and gusts near 24.
This one should run about 121 plays, right at a normal game. Chicago runs more plays per game than any team in the league and plays at the sixth fastest pace on our NFL pace of play board, while Tampa Bay sits 25th. Caleb Williams has thrown 36, 33 and 34 times since he came back in Week 6, so the Bears throw whether they lead or not. Tampa Bay is hard to run on and gives up the third fewest DK points per game to quarterbacks, 13.74 over eight games, but tight ends score 14.78 per game against it, 11th most.
The total goes over if Chicago scores early and Mayfield is forced into 35 dropbacks behind a line that can't hold off the Bears rush. It stays low if Tampa Bay gets its ground game going again, Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell grind the clock, and both offenses settle for field goals.
Game Overview
Switch tabs for the injuries that move this game and our top plays.
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka, TB WR | Questionable (Foot) | 8 | Chris Godwin Jr., from about 21% of the targets to about 28%; Ted Hurst III, from about 14% to 18% |
| Kyle Monangai, CHI RB | Questionable (Toe) | 8 | D'Andre Swift, from about 15 carries to about 20; Roschon Johnson, from about five to eight |
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | Overall | $10,800 | Over 300 passing yards in Weeks 6 and 7, 34 attempts on Monday, and a 244.5-yard line tonight. |
| Colston Loveland | Overall | $7,800 | 28 targets over his last three games, facing a defense that leaks points to tight ends. |
| Luther Burden III | Overall | $9,000 | Nine targets and a score on Monday, with a 65.5-yard line. |
| Bucky Irving | Overall | $9,800 | 51 carries for 276 yards over two weeks, behind the run game with the softer matchup. |
| Kenny Gainwell | Value | $4,800 | 25 carries for 140 yards in Week 8, priced like a backup. |
| Cairo Santos | Value | $5,400 | The higher kicking line at both books, for the favorite. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Value | $6,400 | First in line for Egbuka's work if Egbuka sits. |
| Baker Mayfield | Leverage | $14,400 CPT | Almost nobody will start a quarterback who threw three passes last week. |
| CHI DST | Leverage | $5,200 | A top-five pass rush facing a line ranked 24th. |
| Ted Hurst III | Dart Throw | $3,400 | Gets close to a third of Tampa Bay's air yards when he plays a full role. |
| Tez Johnson | Dart Throw | $3,200 | Scored on two targets in Week 7. |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Chicago's front against Tampa Bay's line is the biggest mismatch in the trenches tonight. The Bears rank fifth in our DL ranks, and the Buccaneers line ranks 24th. Montez Sweat has 12 pressures and three sacks, Austin Booker has four sacks on 11 pressures, and Dayo Odeyingbo has landed on IR. Chicago pressures the quarterback on 28.8% of dropbacks and sacks him on 8.8%, while Tampa Bay quarterbacks have been hit on 25.5% of dropbacks and sacked on 10.0%. That takes a bite out of Mayfield's floor and puts the CHI DST ($5,200) in play at FLEX, with a captain case if Tampa Bay falls behind.
With the Bears on offense, their blockers win. Tampa Bay's front ranks 27th, Chicago's line ranks eighth with all five starters healthy, and YaYa Diaby is out with a knee injury. David Walker leads the Buccaneers with four sacks. Tampa Bay pressures on 19.2% of dropbacks and Chicago allows pressure on 20.7%, so the TB DST ($3,600) needs a turnover or two to matter. Both directions are on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page.
Run Game Matchup
Tampa Bay's line ranks 15th in our run blocking ranks, and Irving ($9,800) gets a Bears run defense ranked 31st. Buccaneers backs average 4.99 yards per carry, and Chicago allows 4.24 to backs, which backs up Irving at CPT or FLEX. Swift ($10,000) has the tougher job, since Chicago's third-ranked line meets a Tampa Bay run defense that also ranks third, and the Bucs hold backs to 3.64 yards per carry against Chicago's 4.19. The Bears' best run last season went outside to the right, 6.70 yards per carry on 60 tries, and Tampa Bay gave up 5.47 there on 34, so that is where any long Swift run should come from.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka hasn't played since Week 6 and is questionable with a foot injury, so he is out of everything I built. Chris Godwin Jr. ($6,400) drew eight targets against Pittsburgh and five against Carolina, then one in the Atlanta game when Tampa Bay barely threw. I have him for about six targets, near 21% of the passes, and that climbs toward 28% if Egbuka sits. The books haven't hung a catch line on him while his teammates have one, which reads like they are waiting on Egbuka too. Builds 1, 3 and 4 use him.
Ted Hurst III ($3,400) saw six targets against Pittsburgh and one apiece against Carolina and Atlanta. Roughly four targets is my number, with close to 32% of Tampa Bay's air yards, against lines of 1.5 catches and 22.5 yards. That makes him a touchdown-or-bust dart, and he's in Build 5. Tez Johnson ($3,200) scored on one of his two targets against Carolina and is set at 1.5 catches, a dart I didn't need.
Cade Otton ($4,000) has drawn four, two, one and zero targets over his last four games. The books still have him at 3.5 catches and 30.5 yards, and I expect about four looks. The Tampa Bay tight ends against the Chicago defense is the worst unit matchup in this game in our Elo ratings, so Otton is salary relief more than a target. He fills a spot in Builds 2 and 5.
Irving had 27 carries, 170 yards and a touchdown versus Atlanta and 24 times for 106 yards and two scores against Carolina. The books set him at 15.5 carries, 64.5 rushing yards and 2.5 catches, which is about where I have him. Chicago gives up 18.46 DK points per game to running backs over eight games, fourth fewest, but the run blocking matchup points the other way. His outcomes stretch further to the right than most backs, so Build 4 uses him at CPT and Build 5 slots him at FLEX.
Gainwell ($4,800) took 25 carries for 140 yards against Atlanta and 14 for 88 against Carolina. No book has posted a rushing line for him, and I only expect about six carries and three targets if Tampa Bay throws like a normal team. If the Bucs hand it off 50 times again, he pays off his salary many times over, and Build 4 is built for that.
Chase McLaughlin ($5,000) is set at 6.5 kicking points at both books, and Builds 2 and 3 carry him. The TB DST ($3,600) made none of my builds.
Mayfield ($9,600) threw 28, 34 and 34 times in Weeks 1 through 3, and then Jalon Daniels started three games. Since Mayfield returned he has thrown 14 passes in two lopsided wins. He's set at 29.5 attempts, 211.5 passing yards and 17.5 rushing yards, and Chicago allows 20.09 DK points per game to quarterbacks, 11th most. I like him as a FLEX in Builds 3 and 4 and as the big-field captain of Build 5, but not in cash games.
Chicago Bears
Luther Burden III ($9,000) caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards against Atlanta, turned four catches into 130 yards and a score against New England, and caught seven of nine with another touchdown on Monday. I have him at about seven targets, around a fifth of the throws and nearly a quarter of the air yards, next to his 5.5-catch and 65.5-yard lines. Build 2 makes him the captain, and Builds 1 and 4 use him in the FLEX.
Rome Odunze ($6,800) caught four of six for 87 yards on Monday. He draws nearly 32% of Chicago's air yards on roughly six targets, with lines at 3.5 catches and 48.5 yards. In 2025, Odunze averaged 7.72 yards per target against zone (58 targets) and 6.79 against man (33 targets), and Tampa Bay ran zone on 70.7% of its defensive snaps that season. I like that edge, I just like Burden and Loveland more at their prices, so Odunze missed my builds. Kalif Raymond ($3,800) and Zavion Thomas ($2,000) are filler.
Colston Loveland ($7,800) has seen 7, 12 and 9 targets over his last three games, scoring twice and topping 64 yards every time. About eight targets fits, near 23% of the throws, with lines at 5.5 catches and 52.5 yards. Our Elo ratings show the Bears tight ends against the Tampa Bay defense as the widest unit gap in this game, and the Bucs allow 14.78 DK points per game to tight ends over eight games. With Cole Kmet on IR, Sam Roush ($2,400) played 37 of 70 snaps Monday without a target. Loveland captains Build 3 and also sits in the FLEX of the first and fifth builds.
Swift ($10,000) ran 27 times for 69 yards and three touchdowns on Monday, after 22 carries, 78 yards and a score against New England. The books set him at 15.5 carries, 62.5 rushing yards and 2.5 catches. Monangai is questionable with a toe injury and didn't play Monday, so I left him out, and if Monangai sits, Swift goes from about 15 carries to about 20. Tampa Bay allows 17.18 DK points per game to backs, second fewest, so Swift needs touchdowns. Builds 2 and 5 roster him. Roschon Johnson ($4,400) carried five times on Monday and isn't in my builds.
Cairo Santos ($5,400) is set at 8.5 kicking points in one market and 7.5 in another, ahead of McLaughlin at both, kicking for the team expected to score more. Three builds use him, 1 through 3. My defense is the CHI DST ($5,200), in Builds 1 and 4.
Caleb Williams ($10,800) threw for 305 yards against Atlanta, 308 and two touchdowns against New England, and 247 on 34 attempts on Monday. I have him for about 32 throws and four or five runs, against a 244.5-yard passing line and 19.5 rushing yards. He's my cash-game quarterback, the Build 1 captain, and a FLEX piece in Builds 2 and 3.
The Captain's Chair
For a single entry, Williams at $16,200 is the captain. He comes out as the correct captain about once in every five games like this, more than anyone else here, and the field gets there a bit less often. Build 1 surrounds him with Burden, Loveland and Godwin, adds Santos and the CHI DST, and spends the full $50,000.
In big fields I lean on Burden at $13,500. He comes out as the correct captain about once in ten, a bit more often than the field will play him there, and Build 2 makes that call. My contrarian captain is Mayfield at $14,400. I have him as the correct captain about once in 12, yet after a three-pass game hardly anyone will start him, so Build 5 plays out Tampa Bay trailing and throwing. I'm underweight on Swift at CPT, because the field likes him there more than a back facing the defense that allows the second fewest DK points to running backs deserves.
Past first-place lineups back most of this up. Two out of three winners put a receiver, tight end or back at CPT, and so do three of these five builds. Some 93% of winners had a quarterback and 48% had both, while every build here has one and only Build 3 has both. Four of my five carry a kicker or a defense, a little above the 61% of winners who did. Winners summed a median 235% ownership, so all five builds run lighter, Builds 4 and 5 most of all.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Williams | Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Chris Godwin Jr., Cairo Santos, CHI DST | $50,000 | Single-entry pick: Williams spreads it to Burden and Loveland, Santos kicks for the favorite, and the Chicago rush keeps Tampa Bay's drives short. |
| 2 | Luther Burden III | Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift, Cairo Santos, Chase McLaughlin, Cade Otton | $48,700 | Burden wins downfield, Swift handles the short yards, and both kickers stay busy in a 27-21 kind of game. |
| 3 | Colston Loveland | Caleb Williams, Chris Godwin Jr., Cairo Santos, Chase McLaughlin, Baker Mayfield | $48,900 | Loveland works the middle of the field, and both quarterbacks trade scores in a game that goes over the total. |
| 4 | Bucky Irving | Luther Burden III, Chris Godwin Jr., CHI DST, Kenny Gainwell, Baker Mayfield | $49,700 | Tampa Bay runs 45 times again, Irving breaks a long one, and the Chicago rush still gets home on the few dropbacks. |
| 5 | Baker Mayfield | D'Andre Swift, Bucky Irving, Colston Loveland, Cade Otton, Ted Hurst III | $49,400 | Chicago scores early, Mayfield throws 35 times to Otton and Hurst, and Swift and Loveland keep the Bears ahead. |
Model Recommended Bets
Chicago wins 28 to 20 in our game simulations, a little wider than the 6.5 the books are hanging. Our bet list is empty for this one.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
My favorite long shot is Ted Hurst III at +500. We have him scoring 15.1% of the time against 14.5% at the books, a thin gap, but he's the receiver Tampa Bay throws deep to. Mayfield at +650 needs a rushing score, and we sit at 13.1% to the market's 11.9%. He ran four times for 14 yards against Atlanta, so I'm keeping that bet small.
On the flip side, the books like two Chicago backups more than we do. Roschon Johnson (+280) sits at 23.2% in the market and 16.3% on our side, and Sam Roush (+650) is 11.9% against our 8.1%. I'm skipping both.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
With one bullet, Build 1 is my entry: Williams at CPT with Burden, Loveland, Godwin, Santos and the CHI DST, for $50,000.
Two inactives decide the late swaps, Egbuka and Monangai. If Egbuka is active, Godwin loses targets, and Odunze slides into his spot in Build 3, where the extra $400 fits. If Monangai sits, Swift's carries go up, which helps the second and fifth builds.
In big tournaments I'd start from Mayfield or Irving at CPT and keep Williams or Burden in the FLEX, which keeps the best passing game on the field without paying for the captain most lineups will use.
Tools used for this slate
The five builds started from this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer, which prices the showdown captain for every game on the board.
NFL defense against the position showed how little Tampa Bay and Chicago give up to running backs and how much the Bucs allow to tight ends, NFL Elo ratings by unit put Colston Loveland's matchup at the top of the game, NFL run gap efficiency pointed Swift's long runs to the right side, and NFL coverage splits by receiver lined up Rome Odunze against a zone-heavy Tampa Bay plan.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed a dry night at Soldier Field, live NFL odds and totals carries the spread and the touchdown prices, and the NFL DFS hub ties it all together.