Quick Picks
Single-entry captain: Josh Allen ($17,100), the top scorer in this game more than a third of the time in my numbers, Build 1.
Large-field captain: Justin Jefferson ($14,700), who faces a zone-heavy defense he has beaten before, Build 2.
Contrarian captain: MIN DST ($5,400), the top pass rush in our ranks against a line ranked 14th, Build 4.
Cheap piece: T.J. Hockenson ($5,400), with four catches and a touchdown in each of his last two games.
The Game
Minnesota's defense has held quarterbacks to 9.93 DK points a game over seven games, the fewest in the league, and tonight it draws Josh Allen. The Vikings also have to win without Kyler Murray, who is out, so Carson Wentz gets the start and a 211.5-yard passing line. Buffalo is a 3-point road favorite with a 43.5 total, which leaves the Bills near 23 points and Minnesota about a field goal behind. The game is indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium, so the weather plays no part.
I expect about 121 plays, one fewer than a normal game. Buffalo plays at the 11th fastest pace in neutral script and Minnesota at the 24th, and Vikings games have averaged about 115 plays, second fewest in the league, per our NFL pace of play board. Buffalo is the softer defense: it gives up 37.91 DK points a game to wide receivers over seven games, fifth most, and 21.42 to quarterbacks, also fifth most. Minnesota allows 7.07 a game to tight ends, the fewest in the league, and 26.31 to receivers, fourth fewest.
The scoring goes up if Wentz moves the ball early and Justin Jefferson beats a zone-heavy Buffalo plan, which would keep Allen throwing and running deep into the fourth quarter. It goes down if the Vikings rush gets home on Allen, James Cook III grinds out the clock behind the second-ranked run blocking line in our numbers, and both teams trade field goals.
Game Overview
Switch tabs for the injuries that move this game and our top plays.
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray, MIN QB | Out | 10 | Carson Wentz, who started Weeks 1 and 2 and now has a 211.5-yard passing line |
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Overall | $11,400 | 289 passing yards, two scores through the air and one on the ground against Baltimore, with a 30.5-yard rushing line tonight. |
| James Cook III | Overall | $10,400 | At least 21 carries in each of his last three games, behind a line that wins the run matchup. |
| Justin Jefferson | Overall | $9,800 | Nine targets last week and lines of 6.5 catches and 78.5 yards. |
| T.J. Hockenson | Value | $5,400 | Four catches and a touchdown in each of his last two games, at a tight end price. |
| Tyler Bass | Value | $4,600 | Kicks for the favorite and sits in three of my five builds. |
| MIN DST | Leverage | $5,400 CPT | The top pass rush in our ranks, at a captain price almost nobody will pay. |
| Jordan Addison | Leverage | $6,800 | Eight targets last week, and the field will chase Jefferson instead. |
| Ty Johnson | Dart Throw | $3,400 | Caught all four targets for 72 yards in Week 5 and gets the passing-down work behind Cook. |
| Skyler Bell | Dart Throw | $200 | Salary relief with a touchdown line posted, in one build only. |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Minnesota's front against Buffalo's line is the matchup that decides Allen's floor. The Vikings sit first in our DL ranks, while the Bills line is 14th. Dallas Turner leads the rush with 27 pressures and six sacks, Andrew Van Ginkel adds six and a half sacks and Blake Cashman four and a half. Minnesota gets pressure on 35.5% of dropbacks and a sack on 11.0%, while Buffalo has allowed pressure on 20.6% and a sack on 6.0%. That makes the MIN DST ($3,600) a sound FLEX and a real captain option if the game stays low, and it lowers Allen's floor.
The other direction favors Buffalo too. The Bills are 16th in our DL ranks, facing a Minnesota line that is 30th. Gregory Rousseau has 31 pressures and seven sacks, and Buffalo gets pressure on 26.9% of dropbacks. Vikings quarterbacks have been sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks, so Wentz could be running for his life on third downs, and the BUF DST ($4,000) is a fair FLEX. The NFL OL vs DL matchups page has both sides.
Run Game Matchup
Buffalo's line is second for run blocking in our numbers, and Cook ($10,400) faces a Minnesota run defense that is 14th. Bills backs average 4.89 yards per carry and the Vikings allow 4.56 to backs, which supports Cook at CPT or FLEX. One warning: Minnesota held runs up the middle to 3.09 yards per carry on 132 tries last season, so his big gains have to come outside.
Minnesota's line is 14th for run blocking against a Buffalo run defense that is 12th. Jordan Mason ($6,400) is the back I expect to get the most carries, and Vikings backs average 4.00 yards per carry against 3.70 allowed by Buffalo. That makes Mason a thin play unless he scores.
Buffalo Bills
DJ Moore ($7,800) had four catches on seven targets, 82 yards and a score in the win over Baltimore, and he carries no injury tag this week despite a sore shoulder. My number for him is about five targets, close to 16% of Buffalo's passes, and the books sit at 3.5 catches and 47.5 yards. He is the receiver I trust most on this side, and he's in Builds 1 and 3.
Khalil Shakir ($7,200) has drawn three, six and six targets in his last three games and caught 12 of them. Expect about five targets again, next to lines of 3.5 catches and 40.5 yards. His outcomes bunch in the middle, so he is a FLEX piece, used in Build 5. Keon Coleman ($5,800) scored twice over Weeks 5 and 6 and then caught one ball for four yards against Baltimore. At about three targets, Coleman is a touchdown-or-nothing piece who made Build 4.
Dalton Kincaid ($7,400) turned six targets into four catches, 86 yards and a score last week. I see him near 15% of the targets, but Minnesota gives up less to tight ends than any team, and at his price I'd rather spend on Hockenson, so he's in none of my builds. Dawson Knox ($2,400) is filler.
Cook has run 25, 22 and 21 times in his last three games, for 111, 95 and 80 yards and four touchdowns. His lines are 18.5 carries and 86.5 rushing yards, close to my number of about 19. He catches only two or three passes a game, so his score rides on touchdowns and long runs, and that range stretches far to the right. Build 3 starts him at captain, and he fills a FLEX spot in the first and fourth builds. Ty Johnson ($3,400) is the third-down back, with lines of 2.5 catches and 15.5 receiving yards, and he fills out Build 5.
Josh Allen threw 34 times for 289 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore and ran seven times for 30 yards and another score. In Week 5 he ran for 121 yards on 10 carries. The books have him at 230.5 passing yards, 30.5 rushing yards and 7.5 carries. I expect about 30 throws and seven or eight runs, and Buffalo gives up the fifth most DK points to quarterbacks, so he is my cash-game quarterback and the captain of Builds 1 and 5.
Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson ($9,800) has seen seven, seven and nine targets in his last three games, with two touchdowns. I expect about eight targets, a quarter of the throws, against lines of 6.5 catches and 78.5 yards. In 2025 Jefferson gained 8.58 yards per target when teams played zone (103 targets) and 4.21 when they played man (39 targets), and Buffalo played zone on 68.8% of its snaps that season. That matchup suits him, so he captains Build 2, and he's a FLEX in the third and fourth builds.
Jordan Addison ($6,800) caught three of eight targets for 66 yards last week. About six targets is my read, and the books want 3.5 catches and 39.5 yards. He needs a long touchdown to pay off that price, so he is a large-field piece, and Build 5 pairs him with Wentz. Jauan Jennings is out, which leaves the depth chart thin behind those two.
Hockenson ($5,400) caught four of five targets with a touchdown in each of his last two games. I expect about five targets, 16.5% of the throws, against lines of 4.5 catches and 42.5 yards. Buffalo allows 14.06 DK points a game to tight ends, 14th most, so the matchup is fair and the price is low. He's in Builds 1, 2 and 4.
Mason ran 15 times for 68 yards in Week 7 and eight times for 20 last week, and his lines are 11.5 carries and 47.5 yards. Aaron Jones Sr. ($7,000) had 25 carries for 113 yards in Week 5, then eight and five carries since, and his line is 8.5 carries. Neither catches enough passes to carry a cash lineup, so both are large-field pieces in a game Minnesota leads. Mason is the one I use, in Build 5, because he has the bigger carry line.
Wentz ($9,000) started Weeks 1 and 2 before Murray took over, throwing 19 times for 133 yards and three touchdowns, then 20 times for 143 yards. He hasn't played since Week 2. His lines sit at 211.5 passing yards and 2.5 carries, and I expect about 30 throws if Minnesota trails. Minnesota's line is 30th in our pass protection numbers, so I'd keep him out of cash games, but he takes every snap, and Builds 2, 4 and 5 use him at FLEX.
Kickers and Defenses
Tyler Bass ($4,600) has no kicking line at any book, and both books with a line have Will Reichard ($5,000) at 6.5 points. Bass kicks for the favorite, though Buffalo scores touchdowns often enough that Minnesota's kicker has more field goal room on paper. I'm using Bass in Builds 1 through 3 since he costs $400 less, and Reichard missed my builds.
The MIN DST ($3,600) is my defense, in Builds 1 and 2 and at captain in Build 4, because the Vikings rush should get home against this Buffalo line. The BUF DST ($4,000) faces a weak Minnesota line as well, but it didn't make a build. Each defense finishes as the top scorer about one time in fifty in my numbers, and the kickers less often than that. One winner in ten in our winning-lineup data started a kicker or defense at captain anyway, and Build 4 makes that bet.
The Captain's Chair
For a single entry, Allen at $17,100 is the captain. In my numbers he's the right captain roughly one time in three, about twice as often as the field will start him there, and nobody else in this game comes close. Build 1 puts him with Moore, Cook, Hockenson, Bass and the MIN DST for $48,900.
For large fields I like Jefferson at $14,700. In my numbers he's the right captain close to one time in seven, a little ahead of the field's rate, and his zone numbers give him a real path to the top score. Build 2 is that bet. The lonely captain pick is the MIN DST at $5,400. It rarely wins the slot, but the top pass rush in our ranks against a Buffalo team laying three points gives it a path that almost nobody will play, and Build 4 is that game. I'm underweight on Cook at CPT, since the field starts him more often than he earns, but a long run from a 19-carry back can take the top score, so Build 3 still gives him one.
| Player | CPT Salary | Best CPT % | CPT Own % | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $17,100 | 37.3% | 17.5% | +19.8 |
| James Cook III | $15,600 | 16.6% | 25.0% | -8.4 |
| Justin Jefferson | $14,700 | 13.7% | 10.1% | +3.6 |
| Jordan Addison | $10,200 | 4.6% | 3.6% | +1.0 |
| DJ Moore | $11,700 | 4.5% | 5.0% | -0.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | $10,800 | 3.6% | 4.2% | -0.6 |
Best CPT % is how often a player finishes as the top scorer in the game in our numbers; CPT Own % is how often we expect the field to start him at captain.
Past winners back up most of these builds. Two in three winners started a non-quarterback at captain, and three of my five do. Nearly every winner, 93%, played a quarterback and 48% played both; all five of my builds have one, and Builds 2, 4 and 5 have both passers. Four of my five use a kicker or defense, a bit above the 61% rate among winners. The typical winner carried about 235% total ownership, and all five of mine run lighter, Build 5 most of all.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | DJ Moore, James Cook III, T.J. Hockenson, Tyler Bass, MIN DST | $48,900 | Single-entry pick: Allen beats the rush with his legs, Moore and Cook score, and the Vikings defense still gets home a few times. |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | Carson Wentz, Josh Allen, T.J. Hockenson, Tyler Bass, MIN DST | $48,700 | Wentz leans on Jefferson against zone, Allen answers, and the game drifts over the total. |
| 3 | James Cook III | Josh Allen, DJ Moore, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Bass, Skyler Bell | $49,400 | Buffalo wins the line of scrimmage, Cook breaks a long run, and Allen and Moore add the rest. |
| 4 | MIN DST | Carson Wentz, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, James Cook III, Keon Coleman | $45,800 | The Vikings rush takes over, Wentz finds Jefferson and Hockenson for the scores, and Cook keeps Buffalo close. |
| 5 | Josh Allen | Carson Wentz, Khalil Shakir, Jordan Addison, Jordan Mason, Ty Johnson | $49,900 | Both quarterbacks trade scores, Allen runs one in himself, and the cheaper pass catchers pick up the targets the field leaves alone. |
Lineup Rules
Josh Allen at captain: add at least one of DJ Moore or Khalil Shakir, plus one to three Vikings.
Justin Jefferson at captain: put Carson Wentz in the FLEX.
James Cook III at captain: pair him with Tyler Bass and keep Allen in the FLEX.
MIN DST at captain: leave Josh Allen out and build around Wentz, Jefferson and Hockenson.
Two Minnesota pass catchers: add Wentz, so neither one is left without his quarterback.
All five builds follow these rules, and each one is a setting in the free NFL lineup optimizer.
Model Recommended Bets
Our game simulations land on Buffalo by a field goal, 23-20, the same margin as the market. No bet cleared our bar for this one.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Nothing on the long end of this board stands out. Ty Johnson at +800 is the best of it: we have him scoring 10.6% of the time against 10.4% at the books, which makes it a coin flip on a small stake. Ray Davis at +1500 sits at 7.4% on our side and 6.9% in the market, a gap too small to matter at that price.
The books lean the other way on two Minnesota pass catchers. The books price Jefferson (+165) at 32.4% to score and we have him at 20.5%, and Hockenson (+250) sits at 26.0% in the market against 15.9% on our side. I'm passing on both.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
If I enter one lineup, it's Build 1: Allen at CPT with Moore, Cook, Hockenson, Bass and the MIN DST, for $48,900.
I'll be watching Wentz on the opening drives before lock. If Minnesota can't move the ball early, Builds 2, 4 and 5 lose their path, and I'd lean harder into the Buffalo stacks in Builds 1 and 3.
For a big tournament, I'd build around Jefferson or the MIN DST at captain with Allen in a FLEX spot. That still gets the best player in this game into the lineup at his base salary, and it steps away from the Allen captain that so many entries will share.
FAQ
Who is the best captain for Bills vs. Vikings tonight?
Josh Allen at $17,100 is the single-entry captain. In large fields, Justin Jefferson at $14,700 is the better pick, since he finishes on top more often than his captain ownership suggests.
Is Carson Wentz starting for the Vikings tonight?
Yes. Kyler Murray is out, and Wentz has a 211.5-yard passing line. He last played in Week 2.
Should I play a kicker or defense in the Bills vs. Vikings showdown?
Yes. The MIN DST at $3,600 is the best of the four behind the top pass rush in our ranks, and four of the five builds carry a kicker or defense.
Who is the best cheap play for Bills vs. Vikings?
T.J. Hockenson at $5,400, who caught four passes and scored in each of his last two games.
Tools used for this slate
The five builds started from this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer, which sets the showdown captain price for every game.
NFL defense against the position showed how little Minnesota gives up to quarterbacks and tight ends and how much Buffalo allows to receivers, NFL Elo ratings by unit put the Bills backfield against the Vikings run defense at the top of this game, NFL run gap efficiency flagged how hard it is to run up the middle on Minnesota, and NFL coverage splits by receiver lined up Justin Jefferson against a zone-heavy Buffalo plan.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed an indoor game at U.S. Bank Stadium, live NFL odds and totals carries the spread and the touchdown prices, and the NFL DFS hub ties it all together.