High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield, TB QB | Out | 10 | Jalon Daniels, 100% of Week 4 pass attempts and 28.9 expected tonight |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Dallas holds the clearest line advantage in this game, with a pass-blocking front that ranks fifth going against a Tampa Bay rush that ranks 29th, where Vita Vea, A'Shawn Robinson and Al-Quadin Muhammad have three pressures apiece. Prescott should have a clean pocket for most of the night, which protects his floor and turns the Bucs D/ST ($3,000) into a thin play.
When Tampa Bay has the ball, neither line has a clear edge, with the Bucs' blockers ranked 25th and the Dallas rush 24th.
The Game
Thursday night is at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, with the roof expected open on an 83-degree evening and 4 mph of wind, so the weather costs neither kicker anything. Dallas is laying 8.5 and the total sits at 47.5, which puts the Cowboys around 28 points and Tampa Bay around 21, and a big part of that gap is Baker Mayfield being out, which leaves Jalon Daniels to make his second start after he went 19 of 27 for 148 yards and two interceptions in a 17-14 loss to Green Bay.
Dak Prescott has thrown 34, 31, 40 and 45 passes, and Dallas throws 3.6% more often than the situation calls for in neutral game script. The Cowboys also snap it at the third-quickest neutral pace in the league, and their games have averaged 122.8 combined plays. The widest gap on the field is Dallas receivers against the Tampa Bay pass defense, a 103-point rating edge, even though the Bucs have held wide receivers to 24.1 DK points a game through four weeks, fourth fewest in football, and I trust the rating edge over four weeks of points allowed. Going the other way, Dallas has allowed quarterbacks 24.2 DK points a game, the third-highest figure in the NFL, and that's the matchup Daniels gets after running eight times for 55 yards in his first start.
The over needs CeeDee Lamb doing to Tampa Bay what he did to Houston, 17 catches on 21 targets for 189 yards, while Daniels keeps drives alive with his legs. The under is Dallas building an early lead and handing it to Javonte Williams, who has 19 carries in each of the past two games, while a Tampa running game that averaged 3.27 YPC up the middle last season keeps stalling.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I have one game of Daniels to go on, so I'm treating the Mayfield split as a hint. Tampa Bay threw 32 passes a game in his three starts and 27 with Daniels, who ran eight times, and the Bucs passed 6.5% less than expected in neutral spots that day. Chris Godwin Jr. went from 3.7 targets a game to seven, while Bucky Irving went from 5.0 targets to none, so Irving lost the passing work.
Emeka Egbuka ($8,200) leads the Bucs with 24 targets, catching 15 for 154 yards and a score, but he drew only four looks from Daniels and caught two for 13 yards. He's expected to see 5.7 targets tonight against a 2.5-catch, 34.5-yard prop pair, and Dallas sat in zone 73.8% of the time last season, where Egbuka's 7.86 YPT beat his 6.29 against man, a small edge in his favor that makes him my favorite way to bet on Tampa Bay throwing from behind.
Godwin ($7,200) caught six of seven targets for 31 yards against Green Bay after drawing 11 targets total in Mayfield's three starts, and his 4.7 expected targets come close to the line of scrimmage, which makes him a FLEX option when Tampa trails. Ted Hurst III ($2,800) has 16 targets, 128 yards and a touchdown, a touchdown-or-bust dart throw whose price frees salary for both quarterbacks, while Tez Johnson ($2,200) has nine targets in four games. Tampa Bay vacated 160 targets when Mike Evans, Sterling Shepard and Rachaad White left, and these three are the ones splitting what's left.
Cade Otton ($4,400) has drawn exactly six targets in three straight games, and with 4.9 expected targets, about 16% of the passing game, against a Dallas defense allowing 15.3 DK points a game to tight ends, he's the best price-adjusted target earner on the Tampa side.
Irving ($8,400) carried 16 times for 61 yards against Green Bay and has 241 yards and one score on 56 carries this season, but the zero targets last week matter more than the carries. He's expected to see 15.1 carries and 2.7 targets against a 13.5-attempt, 51.5-yard prop line on a side implied for about 21 points, and a back with that combination seldom gets to a usable fantasy score, so I'll only use him as a FLEX in builds where Tampa keeps it close. Sean Tucker ($2,400) scored on three carries last week, which leaves him as a touchdown-or-bust dart throw.
Chase McLaughlin ($5,000) kicks for the offense with fewer expected trips into range, and a $400 discount from Brandon Aubrey doesn't cover that, so I'm saving him for tournaments. The Bucs D/ST ($3,000) is cheap filler for big fields and little else against a quarterback this well protected.
Daniels ($8,600) completed 19 of 27 passes with a touchdown and two picks in his first start and added 55 rushing yards on eight carries, and the books have him at 28.5 attempts, 182.5 passing yards and 44.5 rushing yards tonight. He can run his way to a usable score even if the passing game sputters against a Dallas defense that has given quarterbacks more DK points than all but two others. The field barely picks him at CPT relative to how often he ends up the top scorer, so I want him at FLEX in cash games, and he's my favorite large-field CPT.
Dallas Cowboys
Lamb ($11,800) caught 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown against Houston, and through four games he has 37 catches on 46 targets for 498 yards and four scores. He's expected to see 9.3 targets tonight, roughly 27% of Dallas targets, with a 6.5-catch, 80.5-yard prop pair, and since Dallas receivers own the biggest rating edge on the field, he goes in every cash-game lineup I build and at CPT in every format.
George Pickens ($9,400) drew 28 targets across four games but only three against Houston, turning two catches into 75 yards. With 6.5 expected targets and 4.5-catch, 61.5-yard lines he busts more often than anyone near his price, so I'm using him as a large-field FLEX and as a contrarian CPT when I'm fading Lamb. Ryan Flournoy ($3,800) has drawn between four and eight targets every week, catching 13 for 104 yards, and with 4.8 expected targets he's one of the better price-adjusted values on this board, the cheap piece that lets Prescott and Lamb fit together.
Jake Ferguson ($6,400) has three touchdowns on 15 targets but only 83 yards, and with 3.8 expected targets and a 27.5-yard line he needs another score to earn the price, even against a Tampa Bay defense allowing 17.9 DK points a game to tight ends, ninth most. Brevyn Spann-Ford ($1,600) has three catches on four targets for 33 yards and checks in as the cheapest Dallas pass catcher I'd roster.
Williams ($10,800) scored three times on 19 carries against Houston and has 231 yards and five touchdowns on 62 carries, plus 15 catches on 17 targets, so he has both the passing-game work and the team total. He's expected to see 18.4 carries against a 17.5-attempt, 70.5-yard prop line, and Dallas ran behind its right guard for +0.166 EPA/rush and five touchdowns last season while Tampa Bay allowed 6.02 YPC when teams ran at that gap. The catch is the CPT spot, where the field takes him more often than he finishes as the top scorer, so I'm playing him at FLEX in cash games and going underweight at CPT in large fields. Tyler Goodson ($2,000) backs him up with 34 yards on nine carries.
Aubrey ($5,400) has the higher floor of the two kickers, with his kicking points line at 8.5 on the side implied for 28, and he's playable in every format. The Cowboys D/ST ($4,800) faces a quarterback with two interceptions in his only start, but at that price I'm keeping it to tournaments.
Prescott ($10,400) has eight touchdowns, one interception and 1,065 passing yards, and his 45 attempts against Houston were a season high. He's expected to throw 33.5 times against a 33.5-attempt, 265.5-yard line behind a line that should keep him clean. His floor holds in nearly all of his outcomes and no one on the board finishes on top more often, which makes him a cash-game core piece and first on my CPT list.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Overall | $10,400 | The likeliest top scorer on the board, behind a line that should keep him clean. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Overall | $11,800 | 189 yards on 21 targets last week and the widest positional edge in the game. |
| Javonte Williams | Overall | $10,800 | Five rushing touchdowns plus 17 targets on the favored side. |
| Cade Otton | Value | $4,400 | Six targets in three straight games against a defense that gives tight ends room. |
| Brandon Aubrey | Value | $5,400 | The higher kicking floor on the side implied for 28. |
| Ryan Flournoy | Value | $3,800 | Four to eight targets every week at a price that fits Prescott and Lamb. |
| Jalon Daniels | Leverage | $8,600 | 55 rushing yards in his first start, facing the third-most generous defense to quarterbacks. |
| Emeka Egbuka | Leverage | $8,200 | Tampa's target leader and a CPT the field mostly skips. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Leverage | $7,200 | Seven targets in Daniels' first start, cheap enough to pair with Lamb. |
| Ted Hurst III | Dart Throw | $2,800 | 128 yards on 16 targets and salary room for two quarterbacks. |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Dart Throw | $1,600 | The cheapest Dallas pass catcher with a real target. |
The Captain's Chair
Prescott at $15,600 is the CPT I'd use in single entry. He finishes as the game's top scorer more often than any other player here, and the field picks him for that slot less often than he earns it.
For large fields, Daniels at $12,900 is my CPT, because nobody on the board carries a wider gap between how often he's the right CPT and how often the field gets there, and his legs give him a path to the top score even in a loss. For a CPT almost nobody else has, I'd use Egbuka at $12,300, Tampa's target leader with the zone lean, in the script where Dallas jumps ahead and Daniels throws 40 times.
Three results from the 163 winning lineups I track matter for this game. Two out of three winners used a running back, receiver or tight end at CPT, which is my case for Lamb and Egbuka there in a good share of builds. Nearly half of winners, 48%, rostered both quarterbacks, and Prescott plus Daniels costs $19,000 in FLEX, which still leaves room for Lamb. Just 8% of first-place teams spent every dollar of the cap and about a quarter finished $2,000 or more under it, so I'm fine leaving salary on the table with Hurst and Spann-Ford rather than forcing Pickens in.
Stack Ideas
CPT Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Jalon Daniels, Brandon Aubrey, Cade Otton, Ryan Flournoy.
My single-entry build, with Dallas winning through the air and Daniels plus Otton bringing it back. Total salary $49,600.
CPT CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Jalon Daniels, Emeka Egbuka, Ted Hurst III, Brevyn Spann-Ford.
The shootout, where both quarterbacks clear their passing lines and Lamb repeats the Houston game. Total salary $49,300.
CPT Emeka Egbuka, Jalon Daniels, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Godwin Jr., Cade Otton, Ryan Flournoy.
Dallas builds the lead through Lamb and Daniels spends the second half throwing, with a CPT the field rarely picks. Total salary $48,100.
CPT Javonte Williams, Dak Prescott, Bucky Irving, Brandon Aubrey, Cowboys D/ST, Ted Hurst III.
Dallas controls it on the ground and its defense picks off a second-start quarterback, with Irving and Hurst on the other side. Total salary $48,000.
CPT Jalon Daniels, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Chase McLaughlin, Cade Otton, Ted Hurst III.
Daniels runs for 60 yards and a score while Prescott and Lamb keep pace. Total salary $47,300.
Model Recommended Bets
Dallas wins 26.7 to 21.7 in our simulations, a 48.4-point game against a market total of 47.5, and one market clears our threshold.
Over 47.5 (-110) is a lean. We get the over 52.8% of the time versus 50.0% devigged, a 2.8-point gap, which is thin, and it rests on a Dallas offense that threw 40 and 45 times the past two weeks and a Dallas defense that has given up 24.2 DK points per start to opposing passers.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Cade Otton (+390 to +500) is the long shot I like most, since we make him a 20.0% scorer versus 14.4% devigged across three books, for a tight end with six targets in three straight games. Chris Godwin Jr. (+400 to +480) rates 18.3% against 14.5%, and his seven targets from Daniels are why I'd take a small piece. Ted Hurst III (+425 to +475) comes in at 16.1% against 15.2%, a gap too small to bet at that price.
Going the other way, the books have Sean Tucker (+320 to +360) at 18.5% while we have 12.9%, for a back with three carries all season, and George Pickens (+110 to +130) at 38.8% against our 34.0%. Javonte Williams at -200 to -230 is the short-priced fade, 57.3% against our 49.3%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
My one-bullet lineup puts Prescott at CPT with Lamb, Daniels, Aubrey, Otton and Flournoy in the FLEX spots, which spends $49,600 and carries both quarterbacks plus the best price-adjusted target earner on each side.
The inactive list lands at 6:45 PM Eastern, and Jonathan Mingo, questionable with an illness, has three targets all season, so his status doesn't move anything I'm building.
Across large-field entries I'll start Daniels and Egbuka at CPT more than the field will and stay underweight on Williams there, because the field will put him at CPT more often than he finishes on top.
Tools used for this slate
The board came off the free BankrollSZN build tools: this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer to test every stack against the cap.
NFL WOWY framed the Bucs' first game without Mayfield, NFL coverage splits by receiver gave the Egbuka zone lean, NFL run gap efficiency found the best gap for Williams, NFL defense against the position set the Daniels and Otton matchups, NFL Elo ratings by unit found the Dallas receiver edge, NFL vacated targets tracks the targets Tampa Bay lost, NFL OL vs DL matchups flagged the clean pocket for Prescott, NFL pace of play backed the Dallas volume, and NFL pass rate over expectation split the Bucs passing by quarterback.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed the open-roof forecast at AT&T Stadium, live NFL odds and totals carries the line and the player prices, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it together. Run them before lock.