High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson, BAL QB | Out | 10 | Tyler Huntley, 27.6 expected pass attempts and the only Ravens passing line |
| Zay Flowers, BAL WR | Questionable (Foot) | 8 | Mark Andrews, 18.3% expected target share; Rashod Bateman, nine targets in Week 2 |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
The big edge up front belongs to Atlanta, whose pass protection ranks ninth against a Baltimore rush that ranks 30th, and Trey Hendrickson is out with a finger injury, leaving Tavius Robinson (two sacks, seven pressures) and Mike Green to carry the rush. Michael Penix Jr. should be throwing from a clean pocket on most dropbacks, so his floor looks safe and the Ravens D/ST ($4,400) looks like a thin play at either slot.
With Baltimore on offense it's close to even, since the Ravens' protection ranks 23rd and the Atlanta rush 15th.
The Game
Sunday night is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta with the roof closed, so both kickers work indoors. Atlanta is laying 3.5 with a 43.5 total and team totals of 23.5 and 20.5, and that line already accounts for Lamar Jackson being out, which hands Baltimore to Tyler Huntley after he came on against Tennessee last week and completed eight of nine passes for 63 yards. Huntley threw at least 15 passes in three Baltimore games last season and ran eight times in two of them, including 60 rushing yards against Green Bay.
Both offenses would rather run. Atlanta has passed 11.0% less often than expected, the lowest rate in the league, and the lean held in Penix's two starts at -6.6% and -8.0%, while Baltimore ranks 26th at -5.9%, almost all of it with Jackson. The game projects for about 122 combined plays, right at the league average, and Atlanta is the quicker offense in neutral game script, 14th in pace against Baltimore's 27th. The biggest mismatch anywhere in this game is the Atlanta backfield against the Ravens' run defense, a 100-point rating edge, and Bijan Robinson has 339 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 48 carries over the last two weeks. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have given wide receivers 40.7 DK points per game over four weeks, fifth most in football, and that's the number Zay Flowers gets to work against if he plays.
The slate breaks open if Robinson rips off the kind of runs he had against New Orleans and Huntley answers by scrambling for first downs. It gets strangled if Atlanta builds an early lead and both sides spend the second half handing off.
The Zay Flowers Question
Flowers is questionable with a foot injury, and the inactive list posts around 6:50 PM Eastern, about 90 minutes before kickoff, so we'll know before lock. He has 18 catches on 22 targets for 352 yards and two touchdowns across three games, and he drew 10 of Baltimore's 29 targets against Tennessee, so his status changes how I build the whole Ravens side.
He missed one game, Week 2, so this is a one-game sample and I'm treating it as a hint. Rashod Bateman drew nine targets that day against 3.6 a game across 32 games with Flowers, Mark Andrews drew seven against 4.2 across 37, and Derrick Henry caught three passes against his usual 1.3 targets while his carries didn't rise. Justice Hill picked up nothing extra.
With Flowers active, Bateman is a large-field FLEX and Andrews is the secondary piece. Without him, Bateman moves into cash-game consideration at $6,200, Andrews moves to the top of the Baltimore target tree, and Henry gets a small passing bump while the backfield split stays the same. The full split is on the NFL WOWY tool.
Baltimore Ravens
Flowers ($10,000) costs $3,800 more than any other Ravens receiver, and with 6.9 expected targets, about 24% of Baltimore's passing game, against a 5.5-catch, 68.5-yard prop pair, he holds the passing ceiling on this side. The field rarely takes him at CPT compared with how often he posts the best score in the game, so if he's active he's the Raven I'd use to get different.
Bateman ($6,200) has 11 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets, nine of those in the game Flowers missed, and his 3.6 expected targets make him a large-field FLEX with Flowers in and a far better price-adjusted value without him. Devontez Walker ($3,000) and Elijah Sarratt ($1,200) have seven targets between them all season, and both are touchdown-or-bust dart throws.
Andrews ($6,400) has drawn between five and seven targets in every game, catching 18 of 24 for 149 yards and a touchdown, and Atlanta has given tight ends 15.9 DK points per game, 11th most. With 5.4 expected targets, roughly 18% of the passing game, and a 3.5-catch line, he's the most reliable Ravens pass catcher at his price and a cash-game FLEX whether or not Flowers plays. Matt Hibner ($1,400) has caught all five of his targets for 70 yards and a touchdown, the cheapest Raven I'd roster.
Henry ($11,000) has 374 yards and seven touchdowns on 89 carries and has carried at least 23 times in three of four games. He's expected to see 19.7 carries against a 19.5-attempt, 79.5-yard prop line, and Atlanta allowed 5.31 YPC on 127 runs up the middle last season. With 1.6 expected targets for a team implied at 20.5, though, most of his scoring has to come from the end zone, so he fits builds where Baltimore keeps it close and I'm keeping him out of my cash-game core.
Tyler Loop ($5,000) carries a kicking points line of 6.5, a point under Nick Folk's, and the $400 discount covers about that much, keeping him in play in builds that need the salary. The Ravens D/ST faces a quarterback who should have time to throw, so I'm limiting it to large fields.
Huntley ($8,800) is expected to throw 27.6 times and run 5.3 times, against a 27.5-attempt, 174.5-yard passing line and a 28.5-yard rushing line, and that rushing work lets an $8,800 quarterback reach a usable fantasy score for a team implied at about 20. He busts less often than any other starter on either side, so he's a FLEX in my cash-game lineups and a reasonable CPT pivot in large fields.
Atlanta Falcons
Drake London ($9,800) has 20 catches for 370 yards on 25 targets, and 290 of those yards came on 16 targets in Penix's two starts. He's expected to see 8.2 targets tonight, about 27% of Atlanta's targets, against 5.5-catch and 80.5-yard lines, and Baltimore played zone on 76.1% of snaps last season, where London's 8.95 YPT beat his 6.97 against man, a small lean his way. The field slots him at CPT a bit less than his chances of the top score justify, so he's my large-field CPT and a cash-game FLEX.
Jahan Dotson ($3,600) caught two of three targets for 54 yards, one of them a touchdown, versus New Orleans and has drawn three or four targets in every game, and with 3.6 expected targets he's the best price-adjusted receiver on the Atlanta side. Zachariah Branch ($2,000) added 65 kick return yards and 25 punt return yards last week to his five catches on the season, which gives him a second route to paydirt as a dart throw.
Kyle Pitts Sr. ($4,800) has nine targets all season, and at 3.5 expected targets he needs a touchdown to earn the salary. Austin Hooper ($1,600) has five catches for 40 yards and a touchdown on seven targets, the cheapest Falcon I'd use.
Robinson ($11,800) ran for 194 and 145 yards in the last two games and has 18 targets on the season, though only four since Penix took over. He's expected to see 18.0 carries and 5.0 targets against an 18.5-attempt, 87.5-yard rushing line and a 3.5-catch receiving line, and Baltimore allowed 5.85 YPC on runs at its right tackle last season, the side where Atlanta ran 89 times for 5.02. He's the best play on this board and I'm starting him in each cash-game build. Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800) found the end zone three times on 14 carries against New Orleans and has 194 yards and four touchdowns on 44 carries, but with three targets all season and 7.8 expected carries he's a touchdown-dependent large-field FLEX.
Folk ($5,400) owns the better kicking points line at 7.5 for the favored team, and I'd play him over Loop in any format. The Falcons D/ST ($4,000) gets a backup quarterback behind a line with no clear edge, and at $400 less than the Baltimore unit it's the defense I prefer.
Penix ($9,400) completed 33 of 45 passes for 479 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in his two starts, and his lines tonight are 29.5 attempts and 219.5 yards. He has minus-4 rushing yards on four carries, which ties his score to passing volume in an offense that throws less than anyone. I see him as a FLEX for builds betting on Atlanta scoring through the air and leave him out of cash games.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | Overall | $11,800 | 339 rushing yards and four scores in two weeks, with the biggest mismatch in the game. |
| Drake London | Overall | $9,800 | 290 yards on 16 targets from Penix and roughly 27% of the targets tonight. |
| Tyler Huntley | Overall | $8,800 | A rushing floor and the steadiest scorer of either starting quarterback. |
| Mark Andrews | Value | $6,400 | Five to seven targets in every game, and more if Flowers sits. |
| Nick Folk | Value | $5,400 | The better kicking points line, for the favored team. |
| Jahan Dotson | Value | $3,600 | Three or four targets per game, cheap enough to pair Robinson with London. |
| Zay Flowers | Leverage | $10,000 | 352 yards over three games and an overlooked CPT, if he's active. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Leverage | $9,400 | A clean pocket all night, for builds that need Atlanta scoring through the air. |
| Rashod Bateman | Leverage | $6,200 | Nine targets the one time Flowers sat. |
| Matt Hibner | Dart Throw | $1,400 | Five catches on five targets, the cheapest Raven with a role. |
| Zachariah Branch | Dart Throw | $2,000 | A return man with a second way into the end zone. |
The Captain's Chair
My single-entry CPT is Robinson at $17,700. Nobody else on this board posts the best score in the game nearly as often, and while he'll be the most popular CPT by a distance, the field still picks him there less than he deserves.
London at $14,700 is my large-field CPT, as the next-likeliest top scorer with less CPT ownership than that warrants, and he takes the slot in the game where Penix hits him downfield. To be close to alone, I'd put Flowers at $15,000 in the CPT slot if he's active, because no Raven is picked at CPT so far below his chances of the top score, and if he sits, Huntley at $13,200 takes his place.
I track 163 first-place lineups, and three of their results apply tonight. 67% put a non-quarterback skill player at CPT, which backs Robinson and London over either passer in most of my builds. 61% included a kicker or a defense, and Folk plus the Falcons D/ST together cost $9,400, so at least one of them fits almost everything I'm building. Just 8% of those winners spent the full cap and a quarter left $2,000 or more on the table, so I'm happy to let Hibner and Hooper leave salary unused instead of forcing Bateman in.
Stack Ideas
CPT Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Tyler Huntley, Mark Andrews, Nick Folk, Austin Hooper.
My single-entry build, where Atlanta grinds it out behind Robinson and Huntley plus Andrews answer for Baltimore. Uses $49,700 of the cap.
CPT Drake London, Tyler Huntley, Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson, Jahan Dotson, Elijah Sarratt.
The shootout, where Penix clears his passing line and Huntley keeps pace with his legs. Uses $49,500.
CPT Derrick Henry, Tyler Huntley, Mark Andrews, Tyler Loop, Drake London, Austin Hooper.
Baltimore controls the clock behind Henry and keeps Atlanta's run game off the field, with London as the bring-back. Uses $48,100.
CPT Zay Flowers, Tyler Huntley, Bijan Robinson, Mark Andrews, Nick Folk, Zachariah Branch.
Atlanta jumps ahead on Robinson and Baltimore throws to catch up, with a CPT very few lineups will share. Uses $49,400.
CPT Tyler Huntley, Bijan Robinson, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Nick Folk, Falcons D/ST.
The build for a Flowers scratch, with Bateman taking his targets and Huntley running for a score. Uses $47,000.
Model Recommended Bets
Our NFL game simulations put this at 44 total points, half a point over the 43.5 posted, and a single market gets past our cutoff.
Baltimore moneyline (+146) is a lean. We give the Ravens a 42.2% chance to win against 39.2% devigged, a 3.0-point difference that's thin, and most of Baltimore's offensive numbers were built with Jackson under center, so treat the edge as softer than it looks with Huntley starting. We're risking a sliver of a unit on it.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
No long shot clears the bar tonight. Jahan Dotson (+425 to +480) comes closest at 15.0% on our side against 14.5% devigged across three books, too narrow to bet, and Zachariah Branch (+950 to +1100) rates 8.8% against 7.6%, which isn't enough at a price that long.
In the opposite direction, the market has Bijan Robinson (-225 to -245) at 58.1% while we have 53.7%, and Drake London (+115 to +125) at 38.8% against our 35.2%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
If I could enter one lineup, it would be Robinson at CPT with London, Huntley, Andrews, Folk and Hooper around him, $49,700 in salary that holds up whether or not Flowers plays.
The inactive list lands around 6:50 PM Eastern, and Flowers is the only designation on either side that changes a build: if he's out, Bateman and Andrews move up and the last stack above becomes my second entry.
In large fields I'll lean harder than the field on London and Flowers at CPT and lighter on Henry, because the field gives him the CPT slot about as often as he earns it and his touchdowns carry most of his score.
Tools used for this slate
The board came off the free BankrollSZN build tools: this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer to test every stack against the cap.
NFL coverage splits by receiver gave the London zone lean, NFL run gap efficiency found the gaps Robinson and Henry run into, NFL defense against the position set the receiver and tight end matchups, NFL Elo ratings by unit found the Atlanta backfield edge, NFL OL vs DL matchups flagged the clean pocket for Penix, NFL pace of play set the play count, and NFL pass rate over expectation split the Falcons passing by quarterback.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed the closed roof at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, live NFL odds and totals carries the line and the player prices, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it together. Run them before lock.