High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore, BUF WR | Questionable (Shoulder, AC Joint) | 6 | Khalil Shakir, 17.3% to 22.5% expected target share; Keon Coleman, 116 yards in Week 4 |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Los Angeles has the better of it up front. The Rams' pass protection ranks second, the Buffalo rush ranks 16th, and Ed Oliver is out with a knee injury, so Gregory Rousseau (six sacks, 22 pressures) and Bradley Chubb are left to carry it. Matthew Stafford should get time on the bulk of his dropbacks, which props up his floor and leaves the Bills D/ST ($3,400) as a weak option at CPT or FLEX.
The Bills' protection ranks 17th against a Rams rush that ranks 11th, with Byron Young (3.5 sacks) doing most of the damage, and neither side of that matchup has a real advantage. The full board is on NFL OL vs DL matchups.
The Game
The roof is fixed at SoFi Stadium, so wind and rain are off the table for both kickers. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites in a game totaled at 54.5, with team totals of 29.5 for Los Angeles and 25.5 for Buffalo, and it projects for about 124 combined plays, two above the league-average game, after Rams games have averaged 127 plays a week. Los Angeles snaps it a touch quicker in neutral game script, 21st in NFL pace of play to Buffalo's 22nd, but Stafford's volume matters more: he threw 55 and 51 times in the last two games, and the Rams carry a pass rate 4.0% over expectation in neutral situations, per NFL pass rate over expectation.
Buffalo leans the other way at 3.8% under expectation in neutral spots, and a lot of its scoring runs through Josh Allen's legs, with seven rushing touchdowns in four games. The Bills' defense has given wide receivers 41.8 DK points per game and quarterbacks 23.5 through four weeks, third most in football at both spots, while the Rams have held running backs to 15.5, third fewest, and tight ends to 6.6, second fewest. The widest unit gap anywhere tonight belongs to the Rams' backfield against the Buffalo run defense, a 96-point rating edge, with the Rams' receivers right behind at 95.
I want exposure to the version where Stafford throws 50 times again and Allen answers with scrambles and short scores. The version that sinks this slate has Los Angeles going up early behind Kyren Williams while James Cook runs into the middle of the Rams' front, which allowed 3.38 YPC on 112 runs inside last season.
Buffalo Bills
Khalil Shakir ($7,000) caught seven of eight targets for 82 yards against New England and has 15 catches for 176 yards on 23 targets this season. He's expected to see 6.3 targets, about 17.5% of Buffalo's passing game, against 4.5-catch and 46.5-yard lines, and if Moore sits his expected share climbs to roughly 22%, in which case I'd move him from a large-field FLEX into my cash-game builds.
Moore ($7,600) has 12 catches, 178 yards and a touchdown from 20 targets, but zero and two targets in two of his four games. With the shoulder and 5.1 expected targets, $7,600 is too much for that role, so he's a large-field FLEX if he's active. Keon Coleman ($5,600) turned seven targets into six catches, 116 yards and a score last week and has 14 catches for 217 yards on 16 targets. The Rams played zone on 84.2% of snaps last season, and Coleman's 9.80 YPT against zone beat his 7.12 against man, a modest edge in his favor, and at 4.4 expected targets I rate him the best price-adjusted Bills receiver. Joshua Palmer is out, and Skyler Bell ($200) is in line for his first regular-season snaps, which I'd leave alone.
Dalton Kincaid ($6,600) opened with 130 and 95 yards, then drew five targets across the next two games, and he faces a Rams defense allowing tight ends 6.6 DK points per game. With 5.0 expected targets against 4.5-catch and 55.5-yard lines, he's a large-field FLEX who needs the early-season role back. Dawson Knox ($2,600) has caught all six of his targets, one for a score, and is a touchdown-or-bust dart throw.
James Cook III ($10,600) has 421 yards and three touchdowns on 70 carries, including 135 and 154 yards in Weeks 2 and 3, but he carried 12 times last week and has 10 targets all season. He's expected to see 19.0 carries against a 16.5-attempt, 73.5-yard line, so the books see a smaller workload, and Buffalo ran up the middle 126 times for 11 touchdowns last season, straight into the strength of this Rams front. With 2.5 expected targets, most of his DK score depends on reaching the end zone, so I'm leaving him out of cash games and saving him for builds where Buffalo controls the clock. Ty Johnson ($3,200) caught all six of his targets for 59 yards over the last two games, a cheap passing-down back in large fields.
Tyler Bass ($4,800) carries the same 7.5 kicking points line as Harrison Mevis, but his is priced to go under, and the Bills D/ST is up against the second-ranked pass protection in football, so both stay in large-field builds that need salary relief.
Allen ($11,800) has 1,039 passing yards, six passing touchdowns, 118 rushing yards and seven rushing scores on 33 carries. He's expected to throw 32.3 times and run 7.5 times against 32.5-attempt, 244.5-yard and 36.5-rushing-yard lines, and no player in this pool comes up empty less often, so he's in every cash-game build I make and he's my first CPT.
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua ($11,400) logged no stats in Weeks 2 and 3 with the hip, then caught nine of 12 targets for 125 yards and ran in a two-yard score against Philadelphia. He's expected to see 9.7 targets, about 25% of the Rams' passing game, against 7.5-catch and 93.5-yard lines, and Buffalo has given receivers more DK points than every defense but two, so he's a cash-game FLEX and a large-field CPT.
Davante Adams ($9,400) has 22 catches for 390 yards and two touchdowns on 38 targets, but 23 of those targets and 332 of those yards came in the two games Nacua missed. With Nacua back he drew nine targets and caught four for 32 yards, and his 7.9 expected targets against a 4.5-catch, 62.5-yard pair make him a large-field FLEX. Konata Mumpfield ($2,200) caught four of eight targets for 93 yards and a touchdown in Week 3 and is a dart throw at 2.5 expected targets, and Tutu Atwell ($1,000) is salary relief and little else.
Tyler Higbee ($4,400) drew 11 and six targets in his last two games for 129 yards and one score. Los Angeles used two or more tight ends on 41.0% of its snaps last season. At 3.7 expected targets against a 2.5-catch line, he's the best price-adjusted Ram and a cash-game FLEX. Colby Parkinson ($2,400) didn't play last week, so I'm leaving him out.
Williams ($9,800) caught 10 of 13 targets for 67 yards and ran for 80 yards and two touchdowns last week, and he has 21 catches on 25 targets plus 294 rushing yards and four total touchdowns on the season. He's expected to see 14.1 carries and 3.9 targets against 14.5-attempt, 68.5-yard and 3.5-catch lines. Buffalo has given backs 25.8 DK points per game, seventh most, and allowed 6.74 YPC on 50 runs off left end last season, the gap where the Rams averaged 8.62. He belongs in cash-game lineups as a FLEX, though the field likes him at CPT more than his odds of leading the game in scoring justify. Blake Corum ($3,800) has 162 yards on 33 carries and gets 7.6 expected carries, a large-field FLEX with a path to a short touchdown.
Mevis ($5,000) has the better-priced kicking points number on the favored side, and he's my kicker in every format. The Rams D/ST ($4,200) faces a quarterback with seven rushing touchdowns, so it stays in large-field builds only.
Stafford ($9,000) threw for 390 and 317 yards on 106 attempts across the last two games, and his lines sit at 37.5 attempts and 278.5 yards against a Bills defense that ranks third in DK points allowed to the position. At $2,800 less than Allen with a clean pocket and a 37.1-attempt workload, he's a cash-game FLEX and my large-field CPT.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Overall | $11,800 | Seven rushing touchdowns in four games and the steadiest floor on the board. |
| Puka Nacua | Overall | $11,400 | Nine catches for 125 yards in his return, with about a quarter of the targets tonight. |
| Kyren Williams | Overall | $9,800 | Thirteen targets last week on top of the lead-back carries. |
| Harrison Mevis | Value | $5,000 | The better-priced kicking points line, kicking indoors for the favorite. |
| Keon Coleman | Value | $5,600 | 116 yards last week and more targets if Moore sits. |
| Tyler Higbee | Value | $4,400 | Seventeen targets over his last two games at a mid-tier price. |
| Matthew Stafford | Leverage | $9,000 | 50-plus attempts in both of his last two games, and the field mostly skips him at CPT. |
| Khalil Shakir | Leverage | $7,000 | Buffalo's target leader if Moore can't go. |
| Davante Adams | Leverage | $9,400 | 332 yards in the two games without Nacua, priced off the quiet one. |
| Konata Mumpfield | Dart Throw | $2,200 | 93 yards and a score the last time he saw eight targets. |
| Ty Johnson | Dart Throw | $3,200 | Six catches on six targets in two games as the passing-down back. |
The Captain's Chair
For a single entry, Allen at $17,700 goes in the CPT slot. No one else on either roster leads this game in scoring nearly as often, and even if the field ends up heavier on him than his price implies, it still won't put him in the slot as often as he deserves.
For large fields I'd go to Stafford at $13,500. He's the second-likeliest player to lead the game in scoring with the Bills' pass defense in front of him, very few lineups will start him there, and at that price I can fit Nacua and Williams in the same lineup. If I wanted to stand apart from the field, Coleman at $8,400 is the CPT, because his price lets me fit Allen, Williams and Shakir around him, and I like it more if Moore sits.
Three findings from the 163 first-place showdown lineups I keep on file bear on tonight. 93% rostered a quarterback and 48% rostered both, and with Allen and Stafford the two likeliest top scorers here, a quarterback is in all five of my builds and both are in two of them. Two-thirds of them (67%) put a back or a pass catcher at CPT and only 23% captained a quarterback, so I'm going against that history with a quarterback at CPT in three of five builds, and Nacua and Cook take the other two. Six in ten winners (61%) used a kicker or a defense somewhere, and all five of my builds carry Mevis, Bass or both.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford, Keon Coleman, Harrison Mevis, Tutu Atwell | $49,700 | My single-entry build and the shootout: Allen runs for a score, Stafford answers through Nacua and Coleman works underneath. |
| 2 | Josh Allen | James Cook III, Matthew Stafford, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Bass, Tutu Atwell | $49,700 | Buffalo wins behind Allen and Cook, and Kincaid gets back to his Week 1 workload. Stafford is the bring-back. |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Bass, Blake Corum | $49,900 | Stafford throws 40-plus times again and Williams catches passes out of the backfield. Kincaid answers for Buffalo. |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | Davante Adams, Matthew Stafford, Keon Coleman, Harrison Mevis, Blake Corum | $49,900 | The Rams win through the air and Nacua and Adams both get there, with Coleman as the Buffalo piece. |
| 5 | James Cook III | Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Tyler Bass, Harrison Mevis | $49,700 | Buffalo controls the clock on the ground, and both kickers get chances when drives stall. |
Model Recommended Bets
The NFL game simulations we run land on Los Angeles by about 30 to 25, a 54.7 total against the posted 54.5, and nothing on this game clears our threshold.
We have the Rams winning 62.0% of the time against 61.6% devigged at -180, and the over hitting 50.6% of the time against 50.0%. Neither gap reaches a full point, so we're sitting out both the side and the total.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Nothing priced at +400 or longer is worth a bet tonight. Konata Mumpfield (+700 to +800) gets the closest at 10.8% on our side and 9.5% devigged across three books, and a gap that small doesn't justify a price that long.
The biggest gap on the board comes at a short price. Allen (-118 to -124) scores at 57.9% on our side against 45.5% devigged, backed by seven rushing touchdowns in four games, and Cook (-115 to -118) rates 51.2% against 44.9%.
On the flip side, the market prices Williams higher than we do (-160 to -190), 51.8% to our 43.6%, and does the same with Adams (-105 to +101), 41.7% to our 35.9%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
With one entry, I'd play Allen at CPT with Nacua, Stafford, Coleman, Mevis and Atwell, $49,700 of salary that holds up with or without Moore.
Inactives are due about 6:45 PM Eastern. Moore's shoulder is the only status on either roster that would change how I build. If he's ruled out, Shakir and Coleman both move up, and Build 5, the Cook CPT build that already carries Coleman and Kincaid, becomes my second lineup.
Across large fields I'll put Stafford in the CPT slot more than the field does and Williams there less, since the field overrates Williams as a CPT and underrates Stafford by more.
Tools used for this slate
The board came off the free BankrollSZN build tools: this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer to check every stack against the cap.
NFL coverage splits by receiver gave the Coleman zone lean, NFL run gap efficiency found the Rams interior wall and the Bills' soft edges, NFL defense against the position set the receiver, back and tight end matchups, and NFL Elo ratings by unit found the Rams backfield and receiver edges.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed the fixed roof at SoFi, live NFL odds and totals carries the line and the player prices, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it together. Run them before lock.