High Impact Injuries
No skill-position injuries of note.
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
When Seattle drops back, Denver holds the edge up front. The Broncos' pass rush ranks third, the Seahawks' protection ranks 20th, and Zach Allen (four sacks, 14 pressures) and Nik Bonitto (three sacks) are both healthy. Seattle's quarterbacks have faced pressure on 31% of dropbacks this season, so I'm knocking Sam Darnold's floor down a step and treating the Broncos D/ST ($4,800) as a live CPT or FLEX piece.
Denver's offense gets the better of it on the other side. The Broncos' protection ranks third against a Seahawks rush that ranks fifth, and Denver allows a sack on just 3.6% of dropbacks, so Bo Nix should be comfortable in the pocket on most snaps and I'm not interested in the Seahawks D/ST ($5,200) outside of a dart. We keep every game's line rankings on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page.
The Game
Kickoff is outdoors at Empower Field at Mile High, with clear skies, temperatures in the high 40s and barely any wind, so the weather isn't a factor for either kicker. Seattle is laying 2.5 points on the road with a 40.5 total, which leaves team totals near 21.5 for the Seahawks and 19 for the Broncos. The play count should land right around a normal NFL game, about 121 snaps, and Denver plays faster when the score is close, ranking 14th in NFL pace of play while Seattle ranks 23rd.
Wide receivers have had a hard time against both of these defenses. Through five weeks Denver has allowed 25.3 DK points per game to the position, third fewest in the league, and Seattle has allowed 25.7, fourth fewest. The Seahawks have also kept quarterbacks to 13.9 DK points a game, sixth fewest, while the Broncos have let backs put up 25.9, eighth most. Our unit ratings still give the biggest mismatch to the Seattle receivers against this Denver secondary, and most of that is Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
I want to be on the version where Smith-Njigba scores early and Nix has to answer with long drives. If the Denver rush keeps Seattle behind the sticks and both teams trade field goals, the kickers and the defenses take over the slate.
Seattle Seahawks
Smith-Njigba ($11,600) has caught 37 of 50 targets for 583 yards and seven scores in five games, which is 35% of every pass Seattle has aimed at anyone. He should see about nine targets tonight and almost half of the team's air yards, with books at 6.5 catches and 92.5 yards, and nobody in this game finishes as its top scorer more often. Denver doesn't give much to receivers, but a player who takes a third of the targets can get there anyway, so I'm starting cash-game lineups with him and he's the CPT I'd use first.
Rashid Shaheed ($3,600) has nine grabs for 96 yards on 19 targets and ran for a score in Week 4. He should get around four looks, a lot of them deep, and I don't usually find that kind of ceiling at $3,600, so I'll use him as a large-field FLEX. Cooper Kupp ($3,200) has turned 15 targets into 11 catches, 129 yards and one touchdown, and at about three targets he's salary relief.
AJ Barner ($4,200) went for five catches and 69 yards on nine targets back in Week 3 and has 20 targets this season. The Seahawks lined up with at least two tight ends on 40.2% of plays last year, so he's on the field a lot, and with about four targets against books at 2.5 catches and 23.5 yards he's priced fairly as a FLEX. Elijah Arroyo ($600) is my touchdown-or-bust dart throw at tight end.
Emanuel Wilson ($9,400) carried 20 or more times in three of his last four games and found the end zone in Weeks 4 and 5, with 251 rushing yards on 73 attempts. He should get about 16 carries and three targets, books have him at 18.5 carries and 66.5 yards, and Denver has allowed the eighth-most DK points to backs. I want him in cash games as a FLEX, but the field will captain him more often than his chances of topping this game justify. George Holani ($4,400) has caught 11 of his 12 targets, and he's a cheap large-field FLEX in builds that expect Seattle to throw to its backs.
Jason Myers ($5,000) carries a 6.5 kicking points number identical to Wil Lutz's for $400 less, kicking for the favorite, so he's the kicker I'll use most. The Seahawks D/ST draws the third-ranked pass protection, so I'm keeping it to large fields.
Darnold ($9,800) has 742 passing yards and seven touchdown throws on 96 attempts since he became the starter in Week 3, with five interceptions on the year. Books set his passing yards at 219.5 on 30.5 attempts, and the Denver rush is his biggest problem. With Smith-Njigba drawing a third of his throws, I'm using him at FLEX for cash games, and he's my favorite quarterback to captain in large fields.
Denver Broncos
Jaylen Waddle ($9,000) caught eight of 10 targets for 138 yards in Week 2, and he's at 18 catches, 204 yards and one score on 31 targets for the year. He should get about seven targets, close to a fifth of the Broncos' passes and over a quarter of their air yards, with books at 4.5 catches and 47.5 yards. Last season Seattle sat in zone on 84.1% of plays, while Waddle averaged 9.69 YPT against zone compared with 7.51 against man, a lean in his favor that keeps him in large-field lineups at FLEX and occasionally at CPT.
Courtland Sutton ($8,000) has 11 catches for 104 yards on 25 targets, including a one-catch day on six targets in Week 4. He caught a touchdown last week and should see about five targets on the longer routes, but $8,000 is steep for a receiver who has caught fewer than half the balls thrown his way, so I'll only use him in large fields. Troy Franklin ($3,000) has four catches for 64 yards and Marvin Mims Jr. ($2,800) has three for 16, which makes each of them a touchdown-or-bust dart throw.
Evan Engram ($4,000) caught all four balls thrown his way for 55 yards last week and should see three or four targets against a Seahawks defense giving tight ends 10.0 DK points a game. At $4,000 I'll take him in large-field lineups.
J.K. Dobbins ($8,400) ran 18 times for 68 yards and scored last week, giving him 229 yards on 64 carries for the year with only six targets. He should get about 12 carries, books have him at 13.5 carries and 48.5 yards, and Seattle allowed just 3.12 YPC on 131 runs between the tackles last season. A back on the lower team total with no receiving role needs a touchdown, so I'm not playing him in cash games. RJ Harvey ($6,400) went 10-for-10 on targets in Week 4 and has hauled in 20 of his 22 targets, though last week he saw only one. He should get about five targets and four carries, and I'd rather pay for him than Dobbins because of that receiving work. Tyler Badie ($1,400) has six catches for 67 yards and frees up salary.
Lutz ($5,400) has that same 6.5 kicking points number at a $400 premium. The Broncos D/ST gets a Seattle line that ranks 20th in protection and a quarterback with five interceptions already, and it's the way I'd go to get different at CPT.
Nix ($9,600) has 942 passing yards and six touchdowns on 162 attempts plus one rushing score this year, after nine rushing touchdowns over the previous two seasons. Books have him at 34.5 attempts, 197.5 yards and 15.5 rushing yards. Seattle has been tough on quarterbacks, but his offensive line should keep him clean, so I'm playing him at FLEX for cash games, and he's the player most likely to top this game after Smith-Njigba.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Overall | $11,600 | Seven touchdowns and 35% of Seattle's targets through five games. |
| Bo Nix | Overall | $9,600 | Time to throw behind a top-three line, plus the odd short rushing score. |
| Emanuel Wilson | Overall | $9,400 | At least 20 carries in three of his last four games. |
| RJ Harvey | Value | $6,400 | Has caught 20 of 22 targets this season. |
| Jason Myers | Value | $5,000 | Matches Lutz's kicking number and costs $400 less. |
| AJ Barner | Value | $4,200 | Plays a lot in Seattle's two-tight-end sets and draws about four targets. |
| Sam Darnold | Leverage | $9,800 | His top receiver is the best player in the game, and the field rarely captains him. |
| Broncos D/ST | Leverage | $4,800 | Allen and Bonitto get to face a line that ranks 20th in protection. |
| Jaylen Waddle | Leverage | $9,000 | Better against zone, which Seattle plays most of the time. |
| Rashid Shaheed | Dart Throw | $3,600 | Deep routes and a rushing touchdown already this year. |
| Tyler Badie | Dart Throw | $1,400 | Six catches for 67 yards at close to the minimum price. |
The Captain's Chair
If I'm making one lineup, I'm captaining Smith-Njigba at $17,400. He finishes as the top scorer in this game far more often than anyone else, and even with the field leaning on him, it won't play him there as often as his target share earns.
In large-field contests I'd shift to Darnold at $14,700 or Nix at $14,400. Both quarterbacks top this game more often than the field will roster them at CPT, and the gap is bigger for Darnold, because his big nights tend to be Smith-Njigba's big nights too. The Broncos D/ST at $7,200 is my contrarian CPT, because a low-scoring game with Allen and Bonitto in the backfield all night is a real path here. Wilson is the CPT I'll play below the field.
Three numbers from the 163 first-place showdown lineups in my file matter tonight. 93% had a quarterback and 48% had both, so with a total this low I have a quarterback in all five builds and both of them in four. Just 23% put a quarterback at CPT and only one in ten put a kicker or D/ST there, so my two quarterback CPT builds and my D/ST CPT build go against that history on purpose. And 61% of winners played a kicker or D/ST in some slot, which every one of my builds does.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Bo Nix, Sam Darnold, Jason Myers, Broncos D/ST, Cooper Kupp | $49,800 | My single-entry build: Smith-Njigba scores, both quarterbacks produce and the Denver rush still gets home a few times. |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Sam Darnold, Emanuel Wilson, RJ Harvey, Seahawks D/ST, Tyler Badie | $49,600 | Seattle wins with Wilson on the ground and Smith-Njigba through the air, and Denver's backs catch passes from behind. |
| 3 | Bo Nix | Sam Darnold, RJ Harvey, Jason Myers, Courtland Sutton, Broncos D/ST | $48,400 | Denver wins at home through the air, with Nix finding Sutton downfield and the pass rush forcing Seattle into field goals. |
| 4 | Sam Darnold | Bo Nix, Jaylen Waddle, RJ Harvey, Jason Myers, Rashid Shaheed | $48,300 | Darnold and Nix trade throws, with Shaheed getting behind the Denver secondary and Waddle working the soft spots in Seattle's zone. |
| 5 | Broncos D/ST | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bo Nix, Sam Darnold, Jaylen Waddle, Tyler Badie | $48,600 | Denver's rush takes over a low-scoring game with sacks and a turnover or two, and Smith-Njigba still makes his one big play. |
Model Recommended Bets
The NFL game simulations we ran call this close to a coin flip, Seattle 20.3 to 19.7, for a 40.0 total against the posted 40.5, and one market gets over our threshold by a hair.
Seattle at Denver, under 40.5 (-105). The under hits in 50.6% of our runs compared with 48.9% devigged, a thin lean of under two points, so I'd keep the stake small. Denver wins 44.8% of our runs against 44.2% at +120, which is too close to bet.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Nix (+400 to +450) is the one long shot I'd bet. We give him a 21.1% chance to score against 16.7% devigged at three books, and he ran in four touchdowns in 2024 and five in 2025 before adding one this year.
AJ Barner (+350 to +390) and George Holani (+300 to +480) both sit about a point above the market, which is too small at those prices, and Holani's number moves a lot from book to book, so the best price matters if anyone plays it.
The market sits higher than we do on Smith-Njigba (+100 to +115), 40.3% to our 37.4%, and on Courtland Sutton (+235 to +280), 23.8% to 21.4%. Kupp (+390 to +450) gets the same treatment at 15.9% to our 13.9%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
If I only had one entry, it would be Build 1: Smith-Njigba at CPT with Nix, Darnold, Myers, the Broncos D/ST and Kupp, for $49,800.
Inactives come out roughly 90 minutes before the 8:15 PM Eastern kickoff, and no one on either roster is listed as questionable, so I don't expect the builds to change.
In large fields I'll play Darnold and the Broncos D/ST at CPT more than the field and Wilson less, because the field likes Wilson in that slot more than his chances of finishing on top support.
Tools used for this slate
The builds came off the free BankrollSZN build tools: this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer, which checked all five stacks against the cap.
NFL coverage splits by receiver gave the Waddle zone lean, NFL run gap efficiency showed how hard Seattle is to run on between the tackles, NFL defense against the position set the receiver, back and quarterback matchups, NFL personnel splits put Barner on the field in two-tight-end sets, and NFL Elo ratings by unit found the Seattle receiver edge.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed clear, calm conditions at Mile High, live NFL odds and totals carries the line and the player prices, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it all together. Run them before lock.