High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans, SF WR | Questionable (ribs) | 8 | George Kittle goes from about 21% to 27% of the targets without him |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS RB | Out | 8 | Rachaad White, the books want 13.5 carries from him |
| Stefon Diggs, WAS WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 7 | Terry McLaurin moves to about a quarter of the targets if Diggs sits |
| Deebo Samuel Sr., SF WR | Out | 5 | Evans at about 28% of the targets, Kittle at about 21% |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Brock Purdy should be comfortable all night. San Francisco's protection ranks second against a Washington rush that ranks 23rd, and the 49ers give up a sack on 2.1% of dropbacks. K'Lavon Chaisson (2.5 sacks, 12 pressures) and Odafe Oweh (two sacks) are the two rushers to know, and I'm staying away from the Commanders D/ST ($3,400).
Washington's line ranks 16th and draws a 49ers rush that ranks 29th with Nick Bosa out with a knee injury. Keion White (three sacks) and Osa Odighizuwa (nine pressures) are what's left. Jayden Daniels should have room to work, and the 49ers D/ST ($4,400) needs a turnover or a short field to matter, which is how I use it in one build. The full set of front-line ranks for the week is on NFL OL vs DL matchups.
The Game
Monday night is at Levi's Stadium, open air, around 61 degrees under an overcast sky with wind near 13 mph and gusts to 17. A long kick into that wind gets harder, but neither quarterback should notice it much. San Francisco is favored by about seven with a total near 51, which puts the 49ers near 28.5 points and Washington near 22. Expect roughly 123 snaps between the two offenses, about one more than a typical game, and the 49ers play faster in neutral game script, 13th in our NFL pace of play ranks against Washington's 17th.
Through five weeks, Washington has been the softer defense. The Commanders have let quarterbacks score 25.8 DK points a game (second most), wide receivers 41.2 (fourth most) and tight ends 22.2 (third most). San Francisco has kept quarterbacks to 13.7 a game (fifth fewest) and tight ends to 8.4 (fifth fewest), though running backs have found 24.5 a game against it, ninth most. The widest gap in our unit ratings is the 49ers tight ends against the Washington coverage, and Purdy against that secondary is next.
The game I'm building for has Purdy picking apart a soft defense while Daniels keeps it close with his legs, so both quarterbacks land among the night's best scores. I'm worried about Christian McCaffrey grinding out a two-score lead while Washington stalls between the 30s, because that version leaves the quarterbacks short.
The Mike Evans Question
Evans is questionable with a rib injury, and since he's the third-highest-paid 49er and drew 37% of the targets in Week 5, I'm pricing every other 49er off his status. Inactives post about 6:45 PM Eastern, 90 minutes before kickoff, and we'll know then.
There's no clean with-or-without split for him in San Francisco. He has played all five games since arriving, so the sample without him on this roster is zero. On our board, if he sits, Kittle moves from about 21% of the targets to 27%, and McCaffrey goes from about 17% to 22%. The receivers behind him don't absorb much, since Jacob Cowing ($2,200) and Brandin Cooks ($4,000) have two catches between them all season. The NFL WOWY tool will show the split once there's a game to measure.
If Evans plays, I keep him to one FLEX spot and lean on Purdy and Kittle. If he sits, Kittle becomes my favorite non-quarterback on the slate and McCaffrey picks up a real receiving role on top of the carries.
Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin ($8,000) has 14 catches for 203 yards and a score on 26 targets in four games, and he went four for four for 62 yards against the Giants. He should see about six targets and roughly 30% of Washington's air yards, and his lines are 3.5 catches and 45.5 yards. San Francisco played zone on 80.4% of snaps last season, and McLaurin averaged 11.81 YPT against zone and 6.76 against man over that stretch, the best coverage fit for any receiver in this game and the reason he's in my upset build.
Stefon Diggs ($8,400) missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury and is questionable again, so I'm not using him anywhere. Antonio Williams ($4,200) has 15 catches for 155 yards on 22 targets, figures to get four or so targets, and he's my first choice among the cheap Washington receivers. Treylon Burks ($3,200) has two touchdowns on five catches, and Dyami Brown ($2,600) has eight grabs on 15 targets, so both are touchdown-or-bust dart throws at most.
Chig Okonkwo ($4,600) caught four of six targets for 60 yards in Week 5, about a quarter of Washington's looks that day, and he should see about four tonight, with the books hanging 3.5 receptions and 25.5 yards on him. Washington used two or more tight ends on 43.4% of its snaps last season, so Washington keeps him on the field, but the 49ers have been tough on the position, and I'd rather spend up to Kittle.
Croskey-Merritt is out, which leaves Rachaad White ($6,600) as the lead back. White has run 29 times for 118 yards and caught all 10 of his targets, and the books like him more than we do, posting 13.5 carries and 47.5 yards. He's still running for the team with fewer implied points and should see two or three targets, so he needs a touchdown, and he's a large-field piece only.
Drew Stevens ($5,000) sits at 6.5 on his kicking points line, two points under Eddy Pineiro, and I'll use him in builds where Washington stalls in the red zone.
Daniels ($10,000) is back under center after missing Weeks 3 and 4 and threw all 25 of Washington's passes against the Giants, completing 17 for 199 yards while running nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He has 203 rushing yards on 21 carries in three games, and the books set him at 30.5 attempts, 206.5 passing yards and 38.5 rushing yards. Washington throws less than the situation calls for even with him playing, but his legs give him a ceiling few quarterbacks have, so he's a FLEX I want in cash games and the CPT I lean on hardest in large fields.
San Francisco 49ers
Evans ($9,600) has 24 catches for 326 yards and three scores on 34 targets, and he went for 113 yards and a touchdown on seven catches against Seattle. If he plays, he should get about nine targets and over 40% of San Francisco's air yards, and the books set him at 5.5 catches and 70.5 yards. He's in one build, as a FLEX.
George Kittle ($8,200) has 21 catches for 268 yards and four touchdowns on 28 targets, and he should see seven or eight targets tonight against lines of 5.5 catches and 64.5 yards. Washington has given tight ends 22.2 DK points a game, and San Francisco used two or more tight ends on 31.7% of its snaps last season, so his role holds up in any script. He's my favorite pass catcher in this game and a cash-game play at FLEX.
I'm moving Cowing ($2,200) up my board because this receiver room is so thin. He has one catch on five targets this season, so the production isn't there yet, but he should get three or four looks with so many receivers out, and at $2,200 he's the salary relief that makes my builds work.
McCaffrey ($11,800) has run 61 times for 286 yards and five touchdowns, and he's caught 19 of 25 targets for 137 more. Look for 14 or 15 carries and six or seven targets, which lines up with the books at 14.5 carries and 4.5 catches. San Francisco ran two backs on 40.2% of its snaps last season, and he found the end zone against both Seattle and the team before it. He belongs at FLEX in cash games, but the crowd will captain him a bit more often than he finishes first in this game, so I'm under the field on him in that slot.
Pineiro ($5,200) has the higher kicking line at 8.5 and kicks for the team laying the points, and he's in all five of my builds. The 49ers D/ST ($4,400) faces a Washington line that ranks 16th, so I use it in the one build where San Francisco jumps ahead and Daniels has to throw.
Purdy ($10,800) has 1,196 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions on 142 attempts, and he threw two more scores against Seattle on 29 throws. The books want 30.5 attempts and 248.5 yards, San Francisco throws more than the situation calls for, ranking seventh in NFL pass rate over expectation, and this Washington defense has been the second easiest on quarterbacks. No player on either roster posts this game's best score as often as Purdy does, so I'm locking him in at FLEX for cash contests, and my one-entry lineup starts with him at CPT.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | Overall | $10,800 | Thirteen touchdown passes in five games, facing the second-worst pass defense for quarterbacks. |
| George Kittle | Overall | $8,200 | Four touchdowns this year, and Washington ranks third worst against tight ends. |
| Christian McCaffrey | Overall | $11,800 | Five rushing scores and six or seven targets on top of the carries. |
| Eddy Pineiro | Value | $5,200 | The higher kicking line by two points, for the home favorite. |
| Jacob Cowing | Value | $2,200 | Three or four looks with Deebo Samuel Sr. and Brandon Aiyuk out. |
| Antonio Williams | Value | $4,200 | About four targets and a clean three-for-three day against the Giants. |
| Jayden Daniels | Leverage | $10,000 | Finishes first in this game much more often than the crowd captains him. |
| Terry McLaurin | Leverage | $8,000 | His best work came against zone, and San Francisco lives in it. |
| Luke Farrell | Dart Throw | $1,200 | A cheap tight end with a path to a red-zone score. |
The Captain's Chair
For one entry, I'm captaining Purdy at $16,200. He wins this game more than anyone else on the board, and even as a popular CPT he won't be used there as much as his odds deserve.
In large fields I'm overweight on Daniels at $15,000, who takes the CPT spot in two of my five builds. How often he finishes first and how rarely the crowd captains him are further apart than for any other player in the pool, and his rushing touchdowns don't go away if the 49ers lead. McCaffrey is the CPT I'm underweight on, with one build betting on a San Francisco win on the ground. If Evans is active, CPT Evans is the way to be alone, but with a rib injury I'm keeping him to a single FLEX spot.
Three findings from the 163 first-place showdown lineups we track apply tonight. Of those winners, 93% rostered a quarterback and 48% rostered both, and all five of my builds include Purdy, with Daniels in four of the five. Only 23% of them used a quarterback at CPT, while four of my builds break from that on purpose because Purdy and Daniels are the likeliest top scorers. And 61% carried a kicker or a D/ST, which is why Pineiro is in all five.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | Christian McCaffrey, Jayden Daniels, Eddy Pineiro, 49ers D/ST, Jacob Cowing | $49,800 | Single-entry pick: Purdy and McCaffrey build a lead, Daniels chases with his legs and the 49ers D/ST cashes the late throws. |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | Brock Purdy, Mike Evans, Eddy Pineiro, Drew Stevens, Antonio Williams | $49,800 | Daniels runs and throws to keep it close, and Evans plays through the ribs to match him. |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | Brock Purdy, Jayden Daniels, Eddy Pineiro, Drew Stevens, Luke Farrell | $49,900 | San Francisco wins on the ground, McCaffrey scores twice and each kicker adds a few field goals. |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Eddy Pineiro, Drew Stevens, Jacob Cowing | $48,600 | Purdy and Kittle carry a comfortable 49ers win while Washington settles for field goals. |
| 5 | Jayden Daniels | Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Eddy Pineiro, Terry McLaurin, Jacob Cowing | $49,400 | Washington pulls the upset through Daniels and McLaurin, and Kittle keeps the 49ers in it. |
Model Recommended Bets
Our NFL game simulations land on San Francisco 29.2, Washington 22.7, a 51.9 total against the posted 51.5. We sit close to the market in every spot, and nothing clears our threshold tonight.
The over hits in 51.5% of the simulated games against 50.4% with the vig removed, a gap of about one point, which is a thin lean and not a bet I'd make at standard juice.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Jacob Cowing (+320 to +390) is the long shot I like. He scores in 27.4% of the simulated games against 18.5% devigged, and three books price him. The catch is that he has one reception all season, so I'm betting on his role growing with so many 49ers receivers out, and it's worth shopping for the +390.
Luke Farrell (+850 to +900) is a smaller version of the same bet, 11.2% on our side against 8.8% devigged across three books. The shorter number I like is Jayden Daniels (+220 to +235), 32.6% against 25.3%, after he ran for two scores against the Giants.
The books are well ahead of us on several names. McCaffrey (-275 to -280) sits at 61.4% devigged to our 53.0%, Mike Evans (-120 to -135) at 47.7% to 38.7%, Brandin Cooks (+230 to +260) at 24.5% to 15.2%, and Rachaad White (+108 to +110) at 39.7% to 32.6%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
With one lineup, I'd play Build 1: Purdy at CPT with McCaffrey, Daniels, Pineiro, the 49ers D/ST and Cowing, for $49,800.
Inactives post about 6:45 PM Eastern. Evans and Diggs are the two questionable receivers, and only Evans appears in my builds, in Build 2. If he sits, I'd swap him for Kittle, which stays under the cap.
In large fields I'm heavier than the field on Daniels at CPT and lighter on McCaffrey there. McCaffrey gets captained about as often as he finishes first, and Daniels wins it much more often than anyone captains him.
Tools used for this slate
The builds came off the free BankrollSZN build tools: this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer.
NFL coverage splits by receiver found the McLaurin zone fit, NFL defense against the position set the quarterback, receiver and tight end matchups against Washington, NFL personnel splits kept Kittle and Okonkwo on the field in two-tight-end sets, and NFL Elo ratings by unit found the 49ers tight end edge.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed the open-air setup and the wind, live NFL odds and totals has the prices, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it all together.