High Impact Injuries
No skill-position injuries of note.
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
Dallas should keep Dak Prescott upright. The Cowboys' protection ranks fourth against a Packers rush that ranks 13th, and Green Bay has Edgerrin Cooper (three sacks) on IR, so Lukas Van Ness (2.5 sacks, nine pressures) is the rusher left to worry about. Dallas allows a sack on 3.0% of dropbacks, so I trust Prescott's floor and I'm staying off the Packers D/ST ($4,000) outside of large-field darts.
Green Bay's protection ranks ninth against a Cowboys rush that ranks 25th. Donovan Ezeiruaku (eight pressures) and Rashan Gary (one sack, seven pressures) haven't finished many plays, so Jordan Love should get time to work, and the Cowboys D/ST ($3,600) needs a turnover to matter. Every game's front-line ranks are on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page.
The Game
Sunday night is at Lambeau Field, open air, under a clear sky in the low 50s with about 10 mph of wind that gusts near 20. Those gusts could take a little off a 50-yard try, but they shouldn't bother either passing game. Green Bay is a 1.5-point home favorite with a 52.5 total, so the books have the Packers near 27 and the Cowboys near 25.5. The two offenses should run about 123 plays, a play or two above an average NFL game, and Dallas is the team speeding things up: the Cowboys rank third in NFL pace of play in neutral game script, while Green Bay ranks 26th.
Through five weeks, Green Bay has given running backs 29.0 DK points a game, the third most in the league, but it has held quarterbacks to 13.4, the third fewest. Dallas has been easier to throw on, allowing 22.1 DK points a game to quarterbacks (seventh most) and 36.5 to wide receivers (12th most). Our unit ratings put the biggest mismatch on the Dallas receivers against the Green Bay secondary, with the Packers receivers against the Dallas secondary right behind it.
I want the version where both quarterbacks throw 35 times and the receivers trade long touchdowns into the fourth quarter. The version I'm afraid of has Javonte Williams grinding out the clock for Dallas while the Packers settle for field goals.
Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb ($10,800) caught 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards in Week 4, then played through a thigh injury in Week 5 and finished with two grabs for nine yards on five looks. He practiced fully this week and has no injury status, and for the season he has 39 catches, 507 yards and four scores on 51 targets, roughly 27% of the Dallas passes. Expect around nine targets and well over a third of the Cowboys' air yards, and the sportsbooks set him at 6.5 receptions and 80.5 yards. Green Bay sat in zone 83.2% of the time last season, and Lamb averaged 7.00 YPT against zone but 9.78 against man, a small mark against him, though he's still the receiver I'm paying for first in cash games.
George Pickens ($8,800) picked up the slack against Tampa Bay with nine catches on 13 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown, and he's at 27 catches and 355 yards on 41 targets. He's in line for about seven targets and close to a third of the air yards, with his receptions line at 5.5 and his yardage line at 67.5. Fewer entries will captain him than any of the other three starting receivers, which leaves him in play as a large-field CPT with Prescott in the FLEX. Ryan Flournoy ($4,400) turned four targets into three catches and 90 yards in that game, should get around five looks, and is the cheap Dallas receiver I'll use most. KaVontae Turpin ($2,000) brought five kickoffs back for 127 yards against the Bucs, and because he returns kicks, he's a touchdown-or-bust dart throw for me.
Jake Ferguson ($5,600) has 15 catches for 102 yards on 21 targets, with all three of his scores coming in the second and third games. Four targets is about right for him, the books post 3.5 catches and 25.5 yards, and the Packers have held tight ends to 9.6 DK points a game, the eighth fewest, so I'd rather spend the extra $1,200 on Tucker Kraft.
Williams ($9,600) has run 74 times for 276 yards and six touchdowns, three of them in Week 4, and he's added 17 catches and a receiving score. He's due for 17 or 18 carries and about three targets, his lines are 17.5 carries and 68.5 rushing yards, and the Packers have been soft against backs. He belongs in my cash-game builds at FLEX, yet the field will put him at CPT more often than he ends up as this game's top scorer, so I'm underweight on him there.
Brandon Aubrey ($5,200) carries a 7.5 kicking points line, the same number as Trey Smack, for $400 more. The Cowboys D/ST faces a Green Bay line that ranks ninth in protection, which leaves it as a large-field dart.
Prescott ($10,400) has 1,381 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions on 192 attempts, including 316 yards on 42 throws against Tampa Bay. The books want 36.5 attempts and 275.5 yards from him, and Dallas throws more than the game situation calls for, ranking third in NFL pass rate over expectation. Green Bay's pass defense has been stingy, but he'll have time behind the fourth-ranked line, so he's a FLEX in my cash builds and the CPT I'll use most in large fields.
Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson ($9,000) caught six of eight targets for 143 yards and two scores against Chicago, and he's up to 26 catches, 474 yards and six touchdowns from 40 targets. Look for about eight targets and close to a third of the air yards, and books have him at 4.5 catches and 74.5 yards. His CPT share should match his odds of topping the game, so I'll play him at FLEX in most builds.
Matthew Golden ($8,000) leads the Packers with 44 targets and turned seven of them into six catches for 123 yards against the Bears. He's set for about eight targets and almost 40% of the air yards, against lines of 4.5 catches and 65.5 yards. He does Watson's job for $1,000 less, so he's my favorite price-adjusted receiver on the Green Bay side and a piece of my single-entry build. Bo Melton ($2,800) caught three of four targets in that game after seeing a single target in each of the first four, so he's a touchdown-or-bust dart throw.
Kraft ($6,800) caught all five passes thrown his way for 64 yards against Chicago and has 20 catches for 212 yards on 29 targets this year. Six targets is a fair expectation, the books post 4.5 catches and 50.5 yards, and Green Bay played two tight ends or more on 32.6% of snaps last season, so he stays on the field in every package. He's my favorite tight end tonight and appears in three of my five builds.
Josh Jacobs ($8,400) is out and hasn't played this season, so the backfield belongs to MarShawn Lloyd ($7,400). Lloyd has just 112 yards on 40 carries, a weak 2.8 per carry, but he scored twice on 10 carries against the Bears and has hauled in 10 of his 13 targets. He's looking at about 10 carries and three targets, and the books are a bit higher at 11.5 carries for 42.5 yards. Dallas gave up 6.42 YPC on runs outside the left end and 6.22 outside the right end last season, and Green Bay's most productive runs went to the edges, so a long gain is in play, but at $7,400 I'm only using him in large fields. Kaleb Johnson ($3,400) has 106 yards on 27 carries and should get around six. Pierre Strong Jr. ($3,000) played 24 of 59 snaps against Chicago and caught three of four targets, and I prefer him to Johnson as salary relief because he plays on third down.
Smack ($4,800) matches Aubrey's 7.5 kicking points line at a $400 discount and kicks for the home favorite, so he's my most-used kicker. I'd only touch the Packers D/ST in a large-field build, since Dallas protects about as well as anyone.
Love ($9,400) completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago and has 1,408 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions on 185 attempts. His lines sit at 34.5 attempts and 274.5 yards, and Dallas has let quarterbacks score 22.1 DK points a game. He has run seven times for minus two yards, so his ceiling comes from his arm, but nobody on either roster finishes as the game's top scorer as often, which makes him a cash-game lock at FLEX and my single-entry CPT.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | Overall | $9,400 | Ten touchdown passes this year and 367 yards against Chicago. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Overall | $10,800 | About 27% of the Dallas targets and a 17-catch game in Week 4. |
| Javonte Williams | Overall | $9,600 | Six rushing touchdowns in five games against a defense that's been soft on backs. |
| Matthew Golden | Value | $8,000 | Team-high 44 targets at $1,000 less than Watson. |
| Tucker Kraft | Value | $6,800 | A perfect five-for-five day against Chicago, and he plays in the two-tight-end sets. |
| Trey Smack | Value | $4,800 | Same kicking number as Aubrey for $400 less. |
| Ryan Flournoy | Value | $4,400 | Three catches for 90 yards on four targets against Tampa Bay. |
| Dak Prescott | Leverage | $10,400 | Ends up as the game's top scorer much more often than he gets captained. |
| George Pickens | Leverage | $8,800 | 130 yards against Tampa Bay, and the field captains him the least of the four starting receivers. |
| Pierre Strong Jr. | Dart Throw | $3,000 | Four targets on 24 snaps against Chicago in the third-down role. |
| Kaleb Johnson | Dart Throw | $3,400 | Around six carries and a shot at a goal-line score. |
The Captain's Chair
With a single entry, Love is my CPT at $14,100. Nobody tops this game as often as he does, and while he'll draw the most CPT ownership, the field still won't captain him as often as his chances support.
In large fields Prescott at $15,600 is my main CPT, and he's in that slot in two of five builds. The gap between how often he wins the game and how often the field puts him at CPT is the widest on the board, and his best nights should come with a Green Bay team that has to keep throwing. Pickens at $13,200 is my contrarian CPT, built for the script where Lamb draws the coverage and Pickens gets loose deep. Williams is the CPT where I'll stay under the field.
Of the 163 first-place showdown lineups in my file, three findings apply tonight. Of those, 93% carried at least one quarterback and 48% used both, and with a 52.5 total every build here has a quarterback and four of the five carry both. Just 23% had a quarterback in the CPT slot, so my three quarterback CPT builds go against that history by choice, since Love and Prescott are the two players most likely to finish with the most points. And 61% of winners included a kicker or a D/ST, and each of my five builds has a kicker, with no D/ST anywhere because both offensive lines protect well.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Love | Dak Prescott, Brandon Aubrey, Matthew Golden, Tucker Kraft, Trey Smack | $49,300 | My single-entry build: Love tops a high-scoring game, Prescott keeps pace and both kickers add points after the touchdowns. |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb | Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Trey Smack, Ryan Flournoy, Pierre Strong Jr. | $48,200 | Lamb takes over a shootout for Dallas, and Love answers with Strong picking up catches on third down. |
| 3 | George Pickens | Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft, Trey Smack, Ryan Flournoy | $49,000 | Pickens beats the Green Bay zone deep while Kraft works the middle for the Packers. |
| 4 | Dak Prescott | Javonte Williams, Jordan Love, Brandon Aubrey, Trey Smack, Ryan Flournoy | $49,000 | Prescott throws 40 times, Williams scores near the goal line and both kickers stay busy in a close game. |
| 5 | Dak Prescott | CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, Tucker Kraft, Brandon Aubrey, Luke Schoonmaker | $49,200 | Dallas wins on the road through Prescott, Lamb and Williams, and Green Bay chases late through Kraft. |
Model Recommended Bets
The NFL game simulations we ran have Green Bay winning 28.3 to 25.2, a 53.4 total against the posted 52.5, and the over is the only market with enough room to play.
Dallas at Green Bay, over 52.5 (-112). The over cashes in 53.4% of our runs against 50.4% devigged, a lean of three points, and at -112 the stake should stay modest. Green Bay wins 52.4% of our runs against 52.0% in the market, which leaves nothing on the moneyline.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
No one at +400 or longer clears the market by enough to bet tonight. Kaleb Johnson (+425 to +550) comes closest, a 13.7% chance on our side against 12.8% devigged at the three books pricing him, which is under a point and too thin at that price.
The touchdown number I like is a shorter one. Matthew Golden (+135 to +155) scores in 35.8% of our runs against 32.7% devigged, with three books posting him, and nobody on the Packers sees more targets.
The market sits well above us on both lead backs. MarShawn Lloyd (-140 to -145) is 49.0% in the market against our 37.9%, and Javonte Williams (-175 to -220) is 56.4% against our 46.9%. Pierre Strong Jr. (+230 to +240) gets the same read at 25.3% to our 19.6%, and so does Prescott (+500 to +575) at 12.8% to our 8.7%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
My one-bullet lineup is Build 1: Love at CPT with Prescott, Golden, Kraft, Aubrey and Smack, for $49,300.
Inactives post about an hour and a half before the 8:20 PM Eastern kickoff. The only questionable player on either roster is Savion Williams, a $200 receiver who isn't in any build, so I don't plan to change any build.
For large fields I'm over the field on Prescott at CPT and under it on Williams, because the field puts Williams in that slot more often than he leads the game in points.
Tools used for this slate
The builds came off the free BankrollSZN build tools: this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer, which checked all five stacks against the cap.
NFL coverage splits by receiver gave the Lamb zone caution, NFL run gap efficiency showed how much Dallas gave up on outside runs, NFL defense against the position set the back, receiver, tight end and quarterback matchups, NFL personnel splits kept Kraft on the field in two-tight-end sets, and NFL Elo ratings by unit found the Dallas receiver edge.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed clear skies and gusty wind at Lambeau, live NFL odds and totals carries the line and the player prices, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it all together. Run them before lock.