High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice, KC WR | Out | 8 | Xavier Worthy, about 22% of the targets; Jalen Royals, four targets in Week 6 |
| Zach Charbonnet, SEA RB | Out | 6 | Emanuel Wilson, about 14 carries; George Holani, five carries and a score last week |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
The Kansas City pocket is the one I'm worried about tonight. Seattle's front ranks third, the Chiefs' line ranks 16th, and Jaylon Moore is out with a concussion, so a backup is protecting Patrick Mahomes. Leonard Williams has three sacks and 12 pressures to lead the Seattle rush, while DeMarcus Lawrence (knee) and Uchenna Nwosu (hip) are both questionable, which is the thing to check when the inactives post. That's why I like the Seahawks D/ST ($4,200) at FLEX in Builds 4 and 5, and the same rush takes a little off Mahomes' floor.
The other side is close to even. Kansas City's pass rush ranks 24th and Seattle's line ranks 23rd, so neither group has a real edge, though George Karlaftis III leads the Chiefs with 16 pressures and is the name to know. I'd only play the Chiefs D/ST ($3,800) in builds that need Kansas City to force a takeaway. The full protection and pass rush board lives on the NFL OL vs DL matchups page.
The Game
Kickoff is at Lumen Field, an open-air stadium, and the forecast calls for 52 degrees, an overcast sky and 7 mph winds, which shouldn't bother either kicker. Seattle is giving a little under three at home, and the total sits at 42.5, which puts the Seahawks near 22.5 points and the Chiefs near 20. The game should land near 122 plays, about a normal night. The total says a slow game, but Kansas City snaps it quicker when the score is close, 10th on the NFL pace of play board to Seattle's 23rd, so this one has a real chance to run hotter than 42.5 suggests.
Kansas City passes above its expected rate, sixth on the NFL pass rate over expectation board. Seattle has thrown less than expected over its last four games, all Sam Darnold starts, which fits a team that wants Emanuel Wilson carrying the ball with a lead. Through six games, Seattle has allowed 23.88 DK points a game to wide receivers and 22.10 to running backs, but only 8.92 to tight ends. Kansas City has given up 21.18 a game to receivers and 19.98 to tight ends through five games. By our unit ratings, Kansas City's backs against the Seattle run defense is the widest gap in the game, and Seattle's receivers against the Chiefs' secondary come next.
The script that breaks this open has Darnold throwing 40 times to Jaxon Smith-Njigba while Kenneth Walker III keeps the Chiefs in it with two short touchdowns. The one that strangles it is the Seattle rush living in front of a patched Kansas City line, with both offenses settling for field goals and the kickers outscoring everybody but Walker.
Kansas City Chiefs
Rice is out again, which leaves Xavier Worthy ($7,000) as the top Kansas City receiver, the same job he had in Week 6. He caught all seven of his targets for 73 yards in Week 6 and drew seven in Week 4 as well, and about seven looks is the fair guess tonight, roughly 22% of the Chiefs' targets. His lines sit at 4.5 catches and 50.5 yards. He can go quiet for a quarter and still turn one catch into a big night, so I treat him as a large-field FLEX rather than a cash-game piece.
Jalen Royals ($3,400) drew four targets and caught two for 24 yards in Week 6. Four looks again is a fair guess. At $3,400 he's the best price-adjusted Chief on the board, and he sits in three of my five builds as the cheap way to fit the top of the board. Andrew Armstrong ($2,000) caught one of two targets for 13 yards in Week 6 and is a touchdown-or-bust dart throw, while Cyrus Allen ($2,400) caught both of his looks for 27 yards and still needs a long play.
Travis Kelce ($8,000) caught four of five targets for 53 yards against the Chargers and should get about five targets, close to 17% of the team's looks. Seattle has held tight ends to 8.92 DK points per game, and paying $8,000 into that matchup is steep, so he's a FLEX I'm happy to be under the field on. Noah Gray ($4,000) caught all three of his targets for 53 yards in Week 6, and the Chiefs ran two tight ends on 25.7% of their plays in 2025, so he keeps a role in any script and gives real salary relief.
Walker ($12,000) has run 59 times for 375 yards and five rushing touchdowns over his last three games, including 19 carries for 128 yards and two scores in Week 6. He should get about 19 carries and five targets, and the books want 78.5 rushing yards and 3.5 catches. Kansas City's run game against Seattle's run defense is the biggest positional edge in this game. Walker draws more CPT entries than anyone, and he earns them, but the gap between how often he wins the night and how often he gets captained is small, so one CPT build is enough for him. Emmett Johnson ($3,000) should get two carries and a target or two and is only a FLEX filler.
Harrison Butker's ($4,800) kicking points line is 6.5, a point under Jason Myers, and I use him in the build where Kansas City moves the ball and stalls inside the 20.
Mahomes ($10,400) completed 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards in Week 6 and ran five times for 16 yards, after two touchdown passes in each of Weeks 3 and 4. He should throw about 32 times, and the books want 216.5 passing yards and 17.5 rushing yards. Playing without Moore against a top-three front costs him a little floor. I still have him as a cash-game FLEX, and he's the CPT I'd use to get different in large fields.
Seattle Seahawks
Smith-Njigba ($11,600) caught 12 of 16 targets for 134 yards in Week 6, 34.8% of the Seattle targets, and he has 32 catches for 440 yards and three touchdowns over his last four games. He should see about 10 targets, close to a third of the Seattle passes, and the books want 7.5 catches and 92.5 yards. He finishes as the top scorer in this game more often than anyone. He's my single-entry CPT and a FLEX in Builds 4 and 5.
Rashid Shaheed ($6,200) caught five of eight targets for 66 yards in Week 6. Four or five targets looks right tonight. Kansas City sat in zone on 64.2% of its 2025 snaps, and Shaheed averaged 9.08 YPT against zone and only 5.47 against man that season, which is the one coverage note in this game worth acting on. He's a strong large-field FLEX. Cooper Kupp ($5,600) drew 10 targets in Week 6 and caught five for 50 yards, but he had five targets or fewer in each of the three games before that, so about four is the fair number. Tory Horton ($2,800) caught one of five targets in Week 6 and is a dart throw with a real role.
AJ Barner ($4,600) caught three of four targets for 16 yards in Week 6 and should get about four, against lines of 2.5 catches and 24.5 yards. Kansas City has allowed 19.98 DK points a game to tight ends, so he's one of the better price-adjusted Seahawks and an easy FLEX.
Charbonnet is out, so Emanuel Wilson ($6,400) leads the backfield again. He ran 21 times for 81 yards with a touchdown and caught a touchdown pass in Week 4, then ran 20 times for 61 yards and a score in Week 5, before a quieter 14 carries for 52 yards last week. He should get about 14 carries and two or three targets, and the books want 52.5 rushing yards. Seattle's best run lane in 2025 was off right end, 5.89 yards a carry, and Kansas City gave up 6.26 yards per carry there, so I like him as a FLEX in a Seattle win. As a CPT, though, the field likes him more than his range supports. George Holani ($4,400) scored on one of his five carries in Week 6 and figures to see four carries and two targets. Velus Jones Jr. ($1,400) ran four times for 20 yards in Week 6 and is the cheapest Seattle body with a role, which is how Build 1 fits Smith-Njigba and Walker together.
Myers ($5,200) kicks for the favorite with the higher kicking points line, and he's in three of my builds. I'd take the Seahawks D/ST ($4,200) over the Chiefs D/ST, because Seattle's rush gets to face Moore's replacement.
Darnold ($9,400) completed 27 of 51 passes for 278 yards in Week 6, and at Washington in Week 3 he had 379 yards and four scores through the air on 45 attempts, with two quieter weeks in between. He should throw about 31 times, with the books at 225.5 passing yards. Kansas City's rush has no real edge on his line, and he has the best receiver in the game, so I like him as a cash-game FLEX, and I'm captaining him well above the field's rate.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Overall | $11,600 | Drew 16 targets last week and wins this game more often than anyone. |
| Kenneth Walker III | Overall | $12,000 | Five rushing touchdowns in his last three games, against Seattle's weakest defensive unit. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Overall | $10,400 | About 32 throws to a receiver room that runs through Worthy and Kelce. |
| Jalen Royals | Value | $3,400 | Four targets last week and the cheapest Chief with a steady role. |
| AJ Barner | Value | $4,600 | Kansas City has been soft on tight ends, and he sees about four looks. |
| Jason Myers | Value | $5,200 | A full point above Butker in kicking points, and he plays at home. |
| Sam Darnold | Leverage | $9,400 | Wins the night about twice as often as he gets captained. |
| Seahawks D/ST | Leverage | $4,200 | A top-three pass rush against a line with a starter out. |
| Andrew Armstrong | Dart Throw | $2,000 | Two targets last week and one deep ball away from paying off. |
| Tory Horton | Dart Throw | $2,800 | Saw five targets last week and only needs one deep connection. |
The Captain's Chair
For single entry, I'm captaining Smith-Njigba at $17,400. He's the likeliest top scorer in this game by a small margin over Walker, and even though the field captains him a lot, it doesn't get there as often as he wins the night. Walker leads the field in CPT entries, and his gap is much smaller, so I have him at CPT once.
In large fields, I'm heaviest on Darnold at $14,100. He wins this game nearly twice as often as his CPT entry rate, and Build 4 pairs him with Smith-Njigba and the Seahawks D/ST. I'm not following the field onto a Wilson CPT, because people will put him there more often than he ends up the top scorer. The lonely option is Mahomes at $15,600 with Smith-Njigba and Darnold beside him, and Build 5 plays it.
Our winning-lineup archive has 163 first-place showdown entries, and four of its numbers bear on tonight. Nearly every winner (93%) used a quarterback, and so do my five builds, though only Build 5 has both of them, against the 48% of winners who did. Also, 61% of winners had a kicker or defense somewhere, and Builds 3, 4 and 5 do. Two of my builds spend the full $50,000, which only 8% of winners did, because Smith-Njigba and Walker together leave nothing over.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Kenneth Walker III, Sam Darnold, Emanuel Wilson, Jalen Royals, Velus Jones Jr. | $50,000 | Single-entry pick: Seattle wins a close game at home through Smith-Njigba and Wilson while Walker keeps Kansas City in it. |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Kenneth Walker III, Sam Darnold, Emanuel Wilson, Andrew Armstrong, Tory Horton | $50,000 | The same Seattle win, with two cheap receivers who each need one long catch. |
| 3 | Kenneth Walker III | Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy, Jason Myers, Harrison Butker, Jalen Royals | $48,800 | Kansas City controls the game on the ground with Walker, Mahomes finds Worthy a few times, and Myers and Butker both get plenty of kicks. |
| 4 | Sam Darnold | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Emanuel Wilson, Xavier Worthy, Jason Myers, Seahawks D/ST | $48,500 | Darnold throws early and often to Smith-Njigba, Wilson scores near the goal line, and the Seattle rush gets to Mahomes. |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold, Jason Myers, Seahawks D/ST, Jalen Royals | $49,400 | Mahomes keeps pace through Royals, Seattle answers through Smith-Njigba, and the Seattle defense makes one play. |
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Jalen Royals (+425 to +500) is my top long-shot bet. He scores 18.5% of the time on our numbers, and three books put the devigged price at 15.9%, so I'd shop for the +500.
Andrew Armstrong (+650 to +950) is the longer version, 10.2% for us and 8.8% for the market. The three books are far apart on him, so I'd only take the +950. Tory Horton (+600 to +850) is close to fair, 10.3% against 9.8%, and he's a bet only at the top of that range.
On three bigger names, the books sit above us. Kelce (+210 to +230) sits at 26.9% devigged to our 20.9%, Worthy (+215 to +250) at 25.6% to 22.4%, and Mahomes (+525 to +600) at 12.8% to 10.9%, a price that rests only on his legs.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
My one-entry lineup is Build 1, Smith-Njigba at CPT with Walker, Darnold, Wilson, Royals and Velus Jones Jr., at the full $50,000.
Inactives post roughly an hour and a half before kickoff, and the names I care about are on defense. If Lawrence and Nwosu both play, the Seattle rush gets stronger against a patched line, and I'd move more entries to Builds 4 and 5.
For a big field, the move is the quarterback CPT. Darnold and Mahomes together win this game close to one time in five, and the field will captain them much less than that, while Wilson draws more CPT entries than his range supports.
Tools used for this slate
The five builds started from this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer, which runs showdown captain mode for every game on the board.
NFL coverage splits by receiver turned up the Rashid Shaheed zone edge, NFL defense against the position showed how hard Seattle has been on tight ends, NFL run gap efficiency found the right-end lane for Emanuel Wilson, NFL personnel splits kept Noah Gray on the field in two tight end sets, and NFL Elo ratings by unit put the biggest edge at Kansas City running back.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed a calm, overcast night at Lumen Field, live NFL odds and totals has the touchdown prices, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it all together.