High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai, CHI RB | Out | 9 | D'Andre Swift, the books want 14.5 carries; Roschon Johnson ran 13 times in Week 6 |
| Romeo Doubs, NE WR | IR | 4 | DeMario Douglas, eight targets in Week 6 |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Pass Rush Matchup
New England's protection is the problem in this game. The Patriots' line ranks 26th against a Chicago front that ranks 13th, and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and center Ben Brown are both out, which puts two backups in the middle of the pocket. Chicago is without Dayo Odeyingbo and Montez Sweat, so Austin Booker (four sacks) carries the rush, and I like the Bears D/ST ($4,000) more than its price suggests, while Drake Maye's floor takes a small hit.
Chicago's line ranks eighth and faces a New England front that ranks 15th, so Caleb Williams should have time. Elijah Ponder (5.5 sacks) is the one Patriots rusher I worry about, and their D/ST ($3,800) would need a defensive score to be worth the spot. Every team's protection and pass rush rank is on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page, updated through the week.
The Game
Thursday night is at Soldier Field, open air, around 55 degrees and clear with the wind near 5 mph, so the weather won't change anything. Chicago is a short home favorite, between two and a half and three points, with the total near 50, which puts the Bears near 26 points and the Patriots near 23.5. Expect roughly 123 total plays, a hair above a normal game. Chicago is the quicker team in neutral game script, fifth in our NFL pace of play ranks to New England's ninth, and the Bears run more plays per game than anyone.
Chicago's defense has been tough on backs, holding them to 17.85 DK points a game through six weeks, fifth fewest, and New England has held quarterbacks to 14.97, seventh fewest. Both defenses sit near the middle against wide receivers, around 33 points a game. Our unit ratings show the biggest mismatch at New England receiver against the Chicago coverage, with Maye against that same pass defense right behind it.
The script I want has both quarterbacks throwing for most of four quarters, Maye finding A.J. Brown and Williams spreading it between Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, with both kickers getting plenty of tries. I'm worried about a different night, with the Chicago rush living in Maye's lap behind a patched line, New England stalling, and the Bears grinding it out with Swift.
New England Patriots
A.J. Brown ($9,000) has played only Weeks 1 and 6 for New England, catching six of 14 targets for 53 yards, but the 10 targets he drew against the Jets were a third of the team's looks. He figures to see about seven targets and roughly 23% of the Patriots' air yards tonight, with props at 5.5 receptions and 69.5 yards. Chicago sat in zone 69.4% of the time in 2025, and Brown averaged 10.09 YPT against man and 8.81 against zone over that stretch, so the coverage costs him a little at most. He's the New England pass catcher I want most, and my pick if I want to get different at CPT.
DeMario Douglas ($6,600) has 20 catches for 233 yards and three touchdowns on 30 targets, and he caught seven of eight for 86 yards and a score against the Jets. Doubs is on IR, so Douglas should get about five looks, against lines of 3.5 catches and 37.5 yards. Efton Chism III ($2,800) caught five of six targets for 57 yards against the Raiders and then saw one target against the Jets, which makes him a large-field play and nothing more. Kyle Williams ($1,800) has turned six catches into 147 yards and a touchdown, so he's my touchdown-or-bust dart throw from this receiver room.
Hunter Henry ($6,200) has 19 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns on 24 targets, with a score against both the Raiders and the Jets. Four targets is a fair guess tonight, the props sit at 3.5 catches and 34.5 yards, and the Patriots lined up with multiple tight ends 36.0% of the time in 2025, which keeps him involved. At $6,200, though, I'd rather pay up for Brown. Eli Raridon ($2,200) has nine catches on 12 targets and is cheaper salary relief at the position.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,800) has run 71 times for 263 yards and two touchdowns and caught 15 of 19 targets, and he should get about 11 carries and a few targets, right where the books sit at 10.5 carries and 42.5 yards. New England's best run direction last season was off left end, 7.79 yards a carry, and Chicago gave up 6.09 a carry on that side. With the lower team total and so little receiving work, he needs a touchdown, which is why I keep him to large-field builds. TreVeyon Henderson ($5,800) has 49 carries for 194 yards and should get about eight tonight, which isn't enough to rank him.
Andy Borregales ($4,800) carries a 6.5 kicking points line, a point below Cairo Santos, and he fits builds where the Patriots drive and stall.
Maye ($10,600) has completed 117 of 183 passes for 1,463 yards, 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he's run for 185 more. He threw four touchdowns for 374 yards against the Raiders in Week 5 and three more on 32 throws against the Jets. The books want 248.5 passing yards and 29.5 rushing yards, and New England throws at about the rate the situation calls for, 11th in NFL pass rate over expectation. No one in this game posts the night's top score more often, so he's a cash-game FLEX and the CPT for my single entry.
Chicago Bears
Luther Burden III ($8,400) leads the Bears with 31 catches for 361 yards on 43 targets, and he caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards against Atlanta with Williams back. He should draw about seven targets and over a quarter of Chicago's air yards, against props of 4.5 catches and 56.5 yards. He's the safest Bears pass catcher, though the market prices his touchdown chances about where we do, so I'm treating him as a FLEX rather than a CPT.
Rome Odunze ($7,400) has 20 catches for 312 yards on 33 targets and is still looking for his first score. Six targets looks right, along with the biggest share of Chicago's air yards, close to a third, so his range is wide, with plenty of quiet games and a real ceiling. He's in one of my builds, as the downfield answer when New England scores early.
Colston Loveland ($6,400) caught six of seven targets for 65 yards and a touchdown in Week 6, and he drew more than a fifth of the targets in Weeks 4 and 6. He's set for about six targets, with props of 3.5 catches and 43.5 yards, and Chicago used two-plus tight ends on 45.6% of its plays last year, so his playing time doesn't depend on the script. He's my favorite Chicago pass catcher at the price. Kalif Raymond ($3,400) has caught 26 of 29 targets for 244 yards and a score, and he's useful salary relief. Cole Kmet ($2,400) has seven catches on 11 targets and needs a touchdown.
Monangai is out for a second straight game, which leaves Swift ($9,800) as the lead back. Swift has run 94 times for 398 yards and six touchdowns and caught 18 of 21 targets, and he scored twice on 16 carries against Atlanta. The books want 14.5 carries and 60.5 yards from him, and with Monangai sitting, that's the number I trust, but the price is what holds me back. At $9,800 with four or so targets, Swift needs a score to pay off, so I keep him to large-field FLEX spots and stay lighter than the field on him at CPT.
Roschon Johnson ($4,400) ran 13 times for 51 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 and has caught eight of 10 targets in three games. Six carries and three catches is a fair expectation, while his one posted rushing line, 26.5 yards, is a little higher. Chicago has the higher team total, which is what a cheap back needs, and he's among the best price-adjusted plays in this game.
Santos ($5,000) is set at 7.5 kicking points for the home favorite, and he shows up in Builds 1, 4 and 5. The Bears D/ST ($4,000) draws a New England line with two interior starters out, so it's in my Chicago-win build.
Williams ($10,400) came back in Week 6 and completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta. Across his three starts he has 712 yards on 91 attempts with three touchdown passes and two more on the ground. Chicago threw well above the expected rate in that Week 6 game, after backups Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent handled Weeks 3 through 5, so I'm leaning on the Williams games and not the season number. The books set his lines at 247.5 passing yards and 19.5 rushing yards, he has a clean pocket against the New England rush, and he's a cash-game FLEX and the CPT I'm heaviest on in large fields.
Top Plays
| Player | Category | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Overall | $10,600 | Seven touchdown passes over the last two weeks and the likeliest top scorer tonight. |
| A.J. Brown | Overall | $9,000 | Drew a third of the targets in his first game back, and the books want 5.5 catches. |
| Colston Loveland | Overall | $6,400 | On the field in any script, with a score and 65 yards in Week 6. |
| Cairo Santos | Value | $5,000 | The bigger kicking points line, for the home favorite. |
| Roschon Johnson | Value | $4,400 | Thirteen carries and a touchdown last week with Monangai out. |
| Efton Chism III | Value | $2,800 | Cheap enough to fit both quarterbacks, with a five-catch game two weeks ago. |
| Caleb Williams | Leverage | $10,400 | Wins this game far more often than the field will captain him. |
| Bears D/ST | Leverage | $4,000 | Two New England interior linemen are out, and Maye has thrown seven interceptions. |
| Kyle Williams | Dart Throw | $1,800 | Six catches for 147 yards, with a path to a long score. |
The Captain's Chair
My single-entry CPT is Maye at $15,900. He posts the top score here more than anyone, and even as the most popular CPT on the board, the field won't put him there often enough.
For large fields, Williams at $15,600 is my overweight CPT, leading Builds 3 and 5. He has the biggest gap on the slate between how often he finishes on top and how often he'll be captained, and his rushing touchdowns give him a second way to get there. Swift is where I'm under the field at CPT, since his CPT popularity runs ahead of how often he tops this game, and none of my builds use him. To be alone, I'd captain A.J. Brown at $13,500 with Maye in the FLEX, which is what Build 2 does.
Our archive of 163 first-place showdown lineups points three ways tonight. Nearly all of those winners (93%) used a passer, 48% had both, and every one of my builds carries Maye and Williams together. Only 23% captained a passer, and Builds 1, 3, 4 and 5 go against that on purpose, because these two passers post the top score far more often than anyone else here. And 61% used a kicker or a D/ST, which four of my five do.
Stack Ideas
| Build | CPT | FLEX | Salary | Game Script |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | Caleb Williams, A.J. Brown, Cairo Santos, Andy Borregales, Roschon Johnson | $49,500 | Single-entry pick: Maye and Brown connect in a close game where both offenses move the ball and both kickers stay busy. |
| 2 | A.J. Brown | Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Roschon Johnson, Kalif Raymond | $49,700 | Brown wins the big plays for New England, and Chicago answers through Odunze downfield. |
| 3 | Caleb Williams | Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Andy Borregales, Colston Loveland, Roschon Johnson | $49,600 | Williams throws like he did in Week 6, Loveland works the middle, and New England keeps pace on the ground with Stevenson. |
| 4 | Drake Maye | Caleb Williams, A.J. Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cairo Santos, Kyle Williams | $49,900 | Maye spreads it to Brown and Kyle Williams despite the line injuries, while Chicago settles for field goals. |
| 5 | Caleb Williams | Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cairo Santos, Colston Loveland, Bears D/ST | $49,400 | Chicago wins at home as its pass rush gets to Maye a few times and Williams leans on Loveland. |
Long Shot Touchdown Bets
Kyle Williams (+450 to +700) is my favorite long shot. He finds the end zone in 12.0% of our simulations against a 10.4% devigged market across three books, and the gap is small enough that I'd want the +700 before betting him.
Efton Chism III (+450 to +525) is a similar bet, 17.4% on our side against 15.2% devigged across three books, and the +525 is the price to look for. A shorter price I'd also take is Maye (+310 to +340), 24.0% against 19.4%, and that one rests on his legs, since he has 34 carries for 185 yards this season.
The market is higher than we are on a few bigger names. Swift (-160 to -165) sits at 51.8% devigged to our 44.4%, A.J. Brown (+130 to +140) at 36.2% to 31.5%, and Henry (+215 to +240) at 26.0% to 22.3%.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
If I had to enter just once, it would be Build 1: Maye at CPT with Williams, Brown, Santos, Borregales and Johnson, for $49,500.
The inactive lists come out around 6:45 PM Eastern. No skill player on either team is questionable, so the thing I'm watching is the New England line, with Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown both out, because a long night for Maye pushes me toward Build 5.
In big tournaments, my Williams CPT share runs ahead of the field and my Swift CPT share runs behind it. Swift gets captained more often than he wins this game, while Williams tops it far more often than his CPT popularity says.
Tools used for this slate
The builds came off the free BankrollSZN build tools: this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer.
NFL coverage splits by receiver set the A.J. Brown man and zone read, NFL defense against the position showed how hard Chicago has been on backs, NFL run gap efficiency found the left-end lane for Stevenson, NFL personnel splits kept Loveland and Henry on the field in multiple tight end sets, and NFL Elo ratings by unit found the New England receiver edge.
NFL weather and roof status confirmed the calm, clear night at Soldier Field, live NFL odds and totals has the prices, and the NFL DFS hub pulls it all together.