Twelve games give us plenty of stacks to choose from and more room for one-offs. Eight games share the top total of 6.5, and New Jersey has the most goals implied at 3.75. We build around the Minnesota power play (MIN PP1) in Calgary, and Nico Daws is the goalie we trust in cash.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, lost and scored 5.6 DK points. The BUF PP1 stack scored 32.5 DK points, last of 4 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH @ BOS | 6.5 | BOS -146 | BOS 3.33, NSH 2.93 | NSH on four days of rest |
| ANA @ NJD | 6.5 | NJD -210 | NJD 3.75, ANA 2.83 | ANA third game in four nights |
| SJS @ OTT | 6.5 | OTT -134 | OTT 3.29, SJS 3.00 | OTT on a back-to-back at home |
| FLA @ PIT | 6.5 | PIT -115 | PIT 3.41, FLA 3.34 | FLA on a back-to-back after travel |
| NYR @ TOR | 6.5 | Pick'em (-110) | NYR 3.22, TOR 3.22 | TOR third game in four nights |
| LAK @ NYI | 5.5 | LAK -115 | LAK 2.83, NYI 2.76 | LAK PP vs NYI PK (30th) |
| VGK @ STL | 5.5 | VGK -126 | VGK 3.02, STL 2.84 | VGK PP (3rd) vs STL PK (5th) |
| WPG @ DAL | 5.5 | DAL -200 | DAL 3.14, WPG 2.37 | DAL PP (2nd) vs WPG PK (16th) |
| MIN @ CGY | 5.5 | MIN -200 | MIN 3.33, CGY 2.53 | CGY on three days of rest |
| CAR @ EDM | 6.5 | CAR -122 | CAR 3.36, EDM 3.21 | EDM PP (1st) vs CAR PK (1st) |
| UTA @ SEA | 6.5 | UTA -178 | UTA 3.59, SEA 2.91 | UTA PP vs SEA PK (26th) |
| DET @ VAN | 6.5 | DET -166 | DET 3.50, VAN 2.91 | DET PP vs VAN PK (32nd) |
The best special teams spot belongs to Detroit: Vancouver allows the most expected goals per 60 on the penalty kill of any team, on a blend that still leans on last season. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe |
| Bryan Rust (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Tommy Novak |
| Troy Terry (ANA, RW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Nikita Nesterenko, Jeff Malott, Cutter Gauthier |
| Mathew Barzal (NYI, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, Simon Holmstrom |
| John Tavares (TOR, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Jack Roslovic, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Dylan Samberg, Mario Ferraro, Dylan DeMelo |
| Thomas Chabot (OTT, D) | Out | 7 | Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson, Tyler Kleven |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM, C) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Nico Daws (NJD, $8,400), cash
Daws is confirmed. He was the first goalie off the ice at New Jersey's morning skate, and his 64.8% win chance is the best on the slate. Anaheim is implied for 2.83 goals and plays its third game in four nights, so he should make about 23 or 24 saves on a quiet night.
Jake Oettinger (DAL, $8,300), GPP
Oettinger is expected to start but not yet confirmed. He pairs a 63.8% win chance with the best shutout chance on the slate (11.1%), and Winnipeg is implied for 2.37 goals, the fewest tonight. He should face about 22 shots, so his ceiling rides on the win and the shutout. If Dallas turns to its backup, switch to Jesper Wallstedt (MIN, $8,200), who has the same 63.8% win chance and sits behind our primary stack. Wallstedt is also expected to start, not yet confirmed.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek
Minnesota is implied for 3.33 goals against Dustin Wolf, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and has an .834 save percentage in five games this season. Both Minnesota units get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings, with the forwards 53.7 points over the Calgary defense. These three also make up the top line, which drives 54.1% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Quinn Hughes and Maxim Shabanov complete the unit at $31,800. The power play ranks 11th in expected goals per 60 against a Calgary kill that ranks 18th, on a blend that still leans on last season. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (103.3), and correlation adds 13.4 points, the most of any stack. Cash and GPP.
DET PP1: Dylan Larkin, Viktor Arvidsson, Lucas Raymond
Detroit is implied for 3.50 goals against Kevin Lankinen, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. Lankinen has an .810 save percentage in six games and should face about 32 shots. Detroit's power play ranks 8th in expected goals per 60 and gets that last-ranked Vancouver kill. These three are also the second line, which drives 52.5% of the 5v5 shot attempts on last season's shot share. Moritz Seider runs the point, and DeBrincat (see Skaters) completes the unit at $31,500. Its 90th percentile (103.0) sits a hair behind Minnesota's, and everyone else will be on it too. Cash and GPP.
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard (contrarian)
Edmonton is implied for 3.21 goals against Brandon Bussi, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, with a 52.6% win chance. This is strength against strength: Edmonton's power play ranks 1st in expected goals per 60 and Carolina's kill ranks 1st, on a blend that still leans on last season. The McDavid line drives 55.5% of the 5v5 shot attempts on last season's shot share, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is still on injured reserve, so the top unit work stays with these three. The 90th percentile (95.8) is third on the slate and correlation adds 12.1 points. The full unit costs $39,200, which eats most of a lineup and keeps the crowd away from it. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET F1 | Emmitt Finnie, Alex DeBrincat, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | +14.8 | VAN F1 (46% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 79 min |
| MIN F1 | Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | +14.3 | CGY F1 (45%) | Full line, 281 min |
| NJD F2 | Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, Arseny Gritsyuk | +12.4 | ANA F1 (38%) | Full line, 62 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
SEA F1: Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers ($13,900 total)
We want this stack for the salary. The Seattle top line costs $13,900 for three skaters, its 90th percentile (46.8) sits just inside the top half of the slate, and McCann also plays PP1. It leaves room for Minnesota's top line and a top goalie in the same build.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: DET PP1. Pivot: UTA PP1. Detroit's power play is the most popular stack by a wide margin. Utah's top unit costs $1,000 less, has the fifth best 90th percentile on the slate (93.7) and faces a Seattle kill that ranks 26th, at about half the ownership.
Chalk goalie: Wallstedt. Pivot: John Gibson (DET, $8,100). Wallstedt is the most popular goalie and a fine play behind MIN PP1. Gibson is expected to start, not yet confirmed, has a 59.8% win chance and pairs with the DET stack, and most of the field will skip him.
Skaters
Centers
Macklin Celebrini ($8,600): cash. Celebrini centers the San Jose top line and runs PP1, about 21 minutes. He should get three or four shots with a 27% chance at five or more, and Ottawa plays the second night of a back-to-back. The field will be on him, and in cash that's fine.
Jack Hughes ($8,200): GPP. Hughes plays on the New Jersey second line and stays on PP1, about 20 minutes. New Jersey has the most goals implied on the slate, and he should get three or four shots with a 26.3% chance at five or more. He costs less than Celebrini and McDavid and should come in less popular than both.
Wingers
Alex DeBrincat ($7,800): cash. DeBrincat skates on the Detroit top line and the top power play, about 20 minutes. He ties for the best floor among wingers (5.8 points) and should get about four shots, with a one in three chance at five or more.
Jason Robertson ($7,400): GPP. Robertson plays on the Dallas top line and the top power play, about 20 minutes, and Matt Duchene's injury keeps more of the work on him. He should get three or four shots. Connor Hellebuyck is suspended, so Stuart Skinner is expected in the Winnipeg net with a 36.2% win chance. Robertson also pairs with our GPP goalie.
Defensemen
Mikhail Sergachev ($5,600): cash. Sergachev plays on the Utah top pair with MacKenzie Weegar and quarterbacks PP1, about 23 minutes. His floor is 4.1 points, and Utah is implied for 3.59 goals, second on the slate.
Matthew Schaefer ($7,000): GPP. Schaefer plays on the Islanders' top pair and runs PP1, about 25 minutes. He should get about three shots, and his 16.8% chance at five or more is the best among the top defensemen. Few people pay $7,000 for a defenseman in a 5.5 total game.
Value Plays
Tommy Novak (PIT C, $3,400): With Bryan Rust out, Novak skates on the Pittsburgh top line with Crosby and Rakell and plays PP1, about 17 minutes. Pittsburgh is implied for 3.41 goals at home against a Florida team on a back-to-back after travel.
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (DET W, $3,400): He plays on the Detroit top line and runs PP2, about 16 minutes. That line has the biggest matchup edge on the slate, and he should get two or three shots.
Blocks Floor
Jonas Brodin (MIN D, $3,200): Brodin plays on the Minnesota top pair next to Quinn Hughes and runs PP2, about 22 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 31.7% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Connor Murphy (EDM D, $3,000): Murphy skates on the Edmonton second pair with Ryan Shea and has no power play role, about 21 minutes. Carolina takes the 2nd most 5v5 shots per 60, so he should block two or three, with a 39.8% chance at the bonus. Same job as Brodin: a cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Will Cuylle over 1.5 shots on goal (-138): we have him at about two shots, and Toronto allows the 2nd most 5v5 shots per 60.
Gabe Perreault over 1.5 shots on goal (-135): he plays on the Rangers' top line, and we also have him at about two shots against that same Toronto defense. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Oettinger, Wallstedt and Gibson are expected to start, not confirmed. If Dallas turns to its backup, switch to Wallstedt. If Detroit does, switch to Daws.
- Wolf and Lankinen are expected, not confirmed. A backup in front of MIN PP1 or DET PP1 makes that stack better.
- Florida is on a back-to-back after travel and Ottawa is on a back-to-back at home. Watch both creases: Cooper Black and Samuel Ersson are expected, not confirmed.
- Anaheim, San Jose and Toronto play their third game in four nights.
- Nugent-Hopkins has an estimated return of today. If he is back, check the Edmonton line rushes for PP1 changes.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Daws, Celebrini, DeBrincat and Sergachev, then use the value plays to fit a Minnesota piece. In tournaments, run the full MIN PP1 with Oettinger, build a second lineup around DET PP1, and save EDM PP1 for the contrarian build.
NHL DFS FAQ
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
A goal pays the scorer and usually one or two linemates for assists, so three forwards on the same line score together. A line stack turns one good shift into points in several roster spots. Tonight the Minnesota top line has 281 minutes together and one of the best line edges on the slate.
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
Yes, when you can. A goalie gets paid for the win, and his own top unit scoring is the easiest way to get it. Tonight Wallstedt sits behind MIN PP1 and Gibson behind DET PP1, so both pair cleanly. Never roster a goalie against your own stack.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.