Two games means heavier stacks, and we want our goalie on the same team as our main stack. Both games carry a 6.5 total, and Montreal has the most goals implied at 3.42. We build around the Montreal power play (MTL PP1) in Chicago, and Jakub Dobes is the goalie we trust behind it.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Nico Daws, won and scored 13.7 DK points. The MIN PP1 stack scored 31.1 DK points, 19th of 24 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL @ CHI | 6.5 | MTL -164 | MTL 3.42, CHI 2.86 | CHI on five days of rest, Suzuki out for MTL |
| TBL @ COL | 6.5 | COL -128 | COL 3.28, TBL 3.07 | COL plays at the fastest 5v5 pace in the league |
No power play gets a soft kill tonight. Colorado's power play ranks 14th in expected goals per 60 and runs into a Tampa kill that ranks 8th, and Montreal's ranks 27th against a Chicago kill at 19th, on a blend that still leans on last season. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki (MTL, C) | Out | 9 | Josh Anderson, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky |
| Ivan Demidov (MTL, RW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Josh Anderson, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky |
| Sam Montembeault (MTL, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Jakub Dobes |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Jakub Dobes (MTL, $7,800), cash
Dobes is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and our feeds do not agree on him yet, so watch the morning skate. His 59.5% win chance is the only one on the slate above 55%. Chicago is implied for 2.86 goals and should put about 24 shots on him, so he should make about 22 saves. He has struggled early with an .847 save percentage in five games, but the matchup is the softest in the crease tonight. If Montreal turns to its backup, switch to MacKenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,000), who has a 53.6% win chance.
Jakub Dobes (MTL, $7,800), GPP
Dobes is our tournament goalie too. His 7.7% shutout chance is the best on the slate, and he sits behind our primary stack, so a big Montreal night pays him and the skaters together. Andrei Vasilevskiy is a popular goalie with only a 46.4% win chance in Colorado, and we are happy to let the field have him.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
MTL PP1: Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Lane Hutson
Montreal is implied for 3.42 goals against Spencer Knight, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and has an .888 save percentage in seven games. With Nick Suzuki out, this unit gets even more of the Montreal offense. Both Montreal units sit about 25 points above the Chicago defense in our NHL Elo ratings, and the Caufield and Slafkovsky pair has the biggest edge of any top-six line. The power play ranks only 27th in expected goals per 60 and Chicago's kill ranks 19th, so we lean on volume here. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (96.6), and correlation adds 10.1 points, the most of any stack. Dobson (see Skaters) and Kapanen (see Value Plays) complete the unit at $26,400. Cash and GPP.
COL PP1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Jaden Schwartz
Colorado is implied for 3.28 goals against Vasilevskiy, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, with an .898 save percentage in seven games. Colorado's defensemen get the only SMASH tag on the slate, 35.8 points over the Tampa defense they face, and Makar is the reason. The MacKinnon line drives 54.5% of the 5v5 shot attempts on last season's shot share, and Colorado plays at the fastest pace in the league. Tampa's kill ranks 8th, so this stack needs 5v5 goals too. Kadri (see Value Stack) and T.J. Hughes complete the unit at $28,200, and its 90th percentile (81.0) is second on the slate. Cash and GPP.
TBL PP1: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point (third stack)
Tampa is implied for 3.07 goals against Blackwood, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, with an .889 save percentage in seven games. Kucherov's top line drives 58.0% of the 5v5 shot attempts on last season's shot share, the best of any line tonight. Tampa's power play ranks 13th against a Colorado kill that ranks 9th. Its 90th percentile (75.6) sits a hair behind Chicago's PP1. Chicago faces our goalie and gets a TOUGH tag, so we take Tampa. On a two game slate we eat the chalk, so treat this as a third build. Anthony Cirelli is day to day and part of this unit. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL F1 | Juraj Slafkovsky, Oliver Kapanen, Cole Caufield | +13.1 | CHI F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Caufield and Slafkovsky, 829 min |
| MTL F2 | Chris Kreider, Alex Newhook, Josh Anderson | +6.7 | CHI F1 (36%) | Full line, 53 min |
| TBL F1 | Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov | +6.2 | COL F1 (44%) | Full line, 415 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
COL F2: Nazem Kadri, Brock Nelson, Gabriel Landeskog ($14,000 total)
Colorado's second line costs $14,000 for three skaters, and its 90th percentile (44.8) still makes the top half of the slate. Kadri also runs PP1, so the line keeps a piece of the power play. It leaves room for the full MTL PP1 and Dobes in the same build.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: MTL PP1. Pivot: COL PP1. Montreal's power play is the most popular stack by a wide margin, and on two games we play it. Colorado's top unit costs $1,800 more, has the second best 90th percentile and comes in less owned, so use it for the second build.
Chalk goalie: Blackwood. Pivot: Dobes. Blackwood is the most popular goalie, but Dobes costs $200 less, wins more often and should come in a bit less owned. Use Blackwood only in the COL PP1 build, where he pairs with his own skaters.
Skaters
Centers
Connor Bedard ($6,500): cash. Bedard centers the Chicago top line and runs PP1, about 20 minutes. He should get about three shots, with a 20.5% chance at five or more, and the field will be on him. He is the one Chicago skater we allow next to Dobes.
Alex Newhook ($3,100): GPP. With Suzuki out, Newhook centers the Montreal second line between Kreider and Anderson and plays PP2, about 16 minutes. That line has the second best edge of any top-six line, and few people will click a $3,100 center on a two game slate.
Wingers
Brandon Hagel ($7,700): cash. Hagel plays on the Tampa top line with Kucherov but skates on PP2, about 21 minutes. His 4.3 point floor is one of the best among wingers, and he should get about three shots.
Martin Necas ($6,700): GPP. Necas skates on MacKinnon's line at even strength and drops to PP2, about 20 minutes. He should come in low-owned next to a chalky MacKinnon, and his ceiling (20.0) gives him a real path.
Defensemen
Noah Dobson ($4,500): cash. Dobson plays on the Montreal top pair with Hutson and stays on PP1, about 22 minutes. He should get about two shots and block one or two, with a 20.1% chance at the 3-block bonus.
John Carlson ($5,700): GPP. On the Tampa top pair with J.J. Moser, Carlson runs PP2 and should play about 21 minutes. That pair drives 55.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts on last season's shot share, and he should be low-owned at this price.
Value Plays
Oliver Kapanen (MTL W, $2,500): He rides the Montreal top line and PP1 with Caufield and Slafkovsky, about 14 minutes. How he is still at the minimum price is a mystery.
Josh Anderson (MTL W, $3,100): Suzuki's injury moves more work to the second line, and Anderson plays right wing there, about 15 minutes. He should get about two shots.
Blocks Floor
Alexandre Carrier (MTL D, $3,200): Carrier plays on the Montreal second pair with Kaiden Guhle and has no power play role, about 20 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 24.2% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best on the slate. Cash and floor play.
Erik Cernak (TBL D, $2,500): Tampa pairs Cernak with Ryan McDonagh on the second pair, with no power play role, for about 19 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 22.7% chance at the bonus, and Colorado takes the most 5v5 shots per 60 in the league. Use him the same way, as a cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Roman Kantserov over 1.5 shots on goal (-135): he plays on the Chicago top line and PP1, and we have him at about two shots.
Artturi Lehkonen over 1.5 shots on goal (-140): he plays on MacKinnon's line against Tampa, and we also have him at about two shots. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Dobes is expected to start, not confirmed, and the feeds disagree. If Montreal turns to its backup, switch to Blackwood, and drop TBL PP1 from that build.
- Blackwood, Vasilevskiy and Knight are all expected, not confirmed. A backup in front of MTL PP1 or COL PP1 makes that stack better.
- Anthony Cirelli is day to day. Check the Tampa line rushes: if he sits, the top line and PP1 change.
- Mike Matheson (MTL) and Bowen Byram (CHI) are day to day. If Matheson returns, Carrier may lose minutes.
- No team is on a back-to-back tonight.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Dobes, Bedard, Hagel and Dobson, then use Kapanen to fit Caufield. In tournaments, run the full MTL PP1 with Dobes, build a second lineup around COL PP1 with Blackwood, and save TBL PP1 for a third build.
NHL DFS FAQ
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most starters are known after the morning skate, when the first goalie off the ice is usually the starter. Some teams wait until warmups. Tonight all four goalies are expected but not confirmed, so check again close to lock.
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup wants a high floor: a goalie likely to win and skaters with big minutes and PP1 time. A GPP lineup wants a high ceiling and a different build from the field, which usually means a full line or power play stack. Tonight the MTL PP1 stack works in both: it has the best ceiling on the slate, and on two games the field will be on it anyway.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.